| To: Outer-limits who wrote (933) | 10/12/2002 1:18:45 PM | | From: parker_benchley | | | | I'm a true fan of BBY...but the following article doesn't help.
I sold on Friday for a 9% gain...but will be back in if it looks right.
startribune.com
We had a nice bump on Friday, but for the combined gains of the DOW for the past two days, Best Buy has only gone up $1.70 It's had better days than that with a stagnant market. Take away the short covering and momentum of these two rallies and it concerns me that the 10 day downtrend BBY still shows may come back if there's profit taking on Monday. If Iraq plays into the picture we could see the mid to low teens here. That, IMO, is a real buying opportunity.
I live in Minneapolis and was at the new headquarters yesterday. (At — not in.) It's truly a magnificent building as beautiful as it is mammoth. With these layoffs it has to be a painful, heartbreaking disappointment for all the people who thought they would be working there. After this fabulous run, I wonder if any of the BOD threw in some of their options to alleviate some of that pain? Yeah, if it were a perfect world. LOL >;-)
I make regular stops at the Best Buy stores and ask the employees how business is. Sales are slow kids and expansion has been halted. Anderson is honest in his overview. I like that and still feel when the dust clears for real BBY will be fine. Be careful out there. We're not out of this mess yet.
Parker |
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| To: parker_benchley who wrote (934) | 10/12/2002 3:26:46 PM | | From: Ausdauer | | | | Parker,
What kind of holiday season are you predicting?
Aus
p.s. The BBY central office is mammoth in scale. Some residents of the area are upset about the size. Also, the building itself is architecturally bland and uninteresting as far as I am concerned. Seems liked they saved some money by eliminating all the frills and embellishments. |
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| To: Ausdauer who wrote (935) | 10/12/2002 4:32:45 PM | | From: parker_benchley | | | | Aus,
IMO, BBY sales will be slower than expected. Do a personal poll from all your friends on who is and who isn't consciously pulling back this holiday season. How many people (myself included) do you know whose retirement plans look like they did 7 to 10years ago? That doesn't promote conspicuous consumption.
Not to get political, but the guy at Pennsylvania Ave. "ain't" going to go down in history as the great leader taking us out of the economic abyss. He's too busy getting pumped up by his running mate in trying to distract us from the current economy—which is getting to be a thinner veil by the day. Saddam is a true tyrant, but he's a tyrant that likes living too much on his terms. It would not be in his interest to not compromise at the 11.9th hour unless Jr. does something truly unwise without allied support. Then, ask yourself if you were Saddam and attacked, would you use all means at your disposal to deter? Then ask yourself what WE have been proven historically capable of in retaliation. The WTC pales in comparison. It's truly frightening.
Bush needs to clean most of the house on his economic advisors but...he's known for not making changes in his personnel. His loyalties are strong (good) but so were Nixon's (bad). This is a matter of perspective and judgment. My point is that this administration does not "inspire" people who have the minds to examine past the first layer. Respectfully, Bush has neither the speaking skills nor the "think on your feet profundity" to, at least, make people feel a little bit better about the future. This does make a difference in national morale...and that affects the ambient mood of stock market. OK, I'm done.
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The design of the Best Buy building is sleekly austere and (like most new, large buildings) a blend of the architect's ego and management's "over the shoulder" artless input to cut costs. I'd call it "grandly understated." LOL.
Yeah, the entire area was quite upset about the building and removal of existing businesses. In the end, the smaller folks lose and the money wins Life isn't fair.
Parker |
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| To: parker_benchley who wrote (934) | 10/12/2002 6:07:48 PM | | From: Outer-limits | | | | | Yes, I too live in the Minneapolis area and I also believe we are definitely NOT out of the woods yet with BBY. Due to a ceartain technical indicator I discovered years ago it is almost a lock that BBY at least goes back down to about 15 bucks (might see a tad more rally on Monday). Nope, you can't go agains that article you supplied and buy with abandon at these levels. BBY could ratchet down their 4th quarter earnings at any time, throw in the slowdown on the WEst coast docks, the negative press about the economy and millions of jobs lost, and you've got the recipe for another major hit to the stock. In the back of my mind I've got this dream about buying BBY around 10 or 11. It might just happen yet (worst case scenario). Nas Drovya!!!! |
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| To: Outer-limits who wrote (937) | 10/14/2002 11:37:21 AM | | From: parker_benchley | | | | I feel that Brad Anderson is a good man and his comments were fair warning to investors. I think we may reasonably see $18 in the near future. At <$15 I'd mortgage the dog.
You were right about that small gain today. Good call. How did you arrive at that conclusion?
Parker |
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| To: parker_benchley who wrote (938) | 10/14/2002 8:14:55 PM | | From: Outer-limits | | | | | Actually didn't mention a slight gain today in my last post. However I'm glad we got it. BBY is a heavily shorted stock, looks like the shorts got a little nervous today. Volume on the up move was somewhat lackluster. This stock could at this point really go back up into the 21-23 area. After that it all depends on how their Christmas sales are going. Still though, feels like we haven't corrected enough just yet. I think it still goes back down to 15 bucks or so on some sort of earnings revision. Lets wait and see!!!!! |
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| To: Outer-limits who wrote (937) | 10/15/2002 10:10:25 AM | | From: Ausdauer | | | | Due to a ceartain technical indicator I discovered years ago it is almost a lock that BBY at least goes back down to about 15 bucks.
Time to abandon your indicator.
We retested lows and now the market rally is upon us.
Unlike other retail areas like, say, home improvement, where you have Lowes or Home Depot or Menards, the electronics area is served by Best Buy, Circuit City, some computer retailers like CompUSA, and some office supply companies like Office Max. Best Buy has the greatest pure electronics appeal with Circuit City being second. Forget about Radio Shack or Electric Avenue or Audio King. Best Buy is big and visible.
OK, it will be subject to the same market conditions as all retail, but I think back to the mid and early 90's when electronics was a stereo system, a TV or cable system and PC's. Now it is much larger than that and demand is much broader. And Best Buy is an enormous US venue for manufacturers. I think Best Buy is in an advantageous position, but stuck in a bad and uncertain consumer environment.
I hope Q4 is good to Best Buy and our local economy.
Aus |
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| To: Ausdauer who wrote (940) | 10/15/2002 7:19:18 PM | | From: Outer-limits | | | | <Time to abandon your indicator>
I'm not so sure about that!! If BBY ratchets down earnings expectation for the fourth quarter it could easily trade down to about 15. Shoot, I sold a nice stock called PD today just to get ready for this possible situation. I've got a basis on my two buys of around 20.25, so either way I'm covered!!! |
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| To: Ausdauer who wrote (942) | 10/16/2002 6:44:48 PM | | From: Outer-limits | | | | I've seen this happen many times before. They've shown this on CNBC several times, and each time they have never been
able to explain it. The buy usually occurs on an alternate exchange like Island. Of course I knew it was bogus!!! |
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