| To: jocko who wrote (2607) | 3/4/2000 6:45:00 PM | | From: jocko | | | |
FWIW :-)
By Thom Calandra
www.CBSMarketWatch.com
Thursday, March 3, 2000
This is a gold story. A South African gold story.
In an age when everyone in the world wants to own --
pick one -- biotech stocks, semiconductors, or IPOs --
one very large gold company is betting big on an old-
world currency, and making a bold call on the price of
the languishing metal.
Chris Thompson is the chairman of Gold Fields, the
second-largest gold producer in the world. The stock
(GOLD) trades on Nasdaq. And for the past six months,
Gold Fields shares have performed better than the
company's North American counterparts -- Newmont
Mining, Barrick Gold, and Placer Dome.
That's not saying much. Gold prices are depressed for a
lot of reasons: central bank selling, a lack of serious
inflation, and the fact that no one wants to buy gold
as an investment when they can double their money in
eight weeks on a hot tech stock.
But Thompson, whom I contacted from London, says gold
will get its day in the sun. "Some sort of collapse in
the equity market is what is going to be the catalyst
for gold," Thompson says boldly. "We have had a secular
trend, paper assets going up and hard assets going
down, and that can't continue."
Thompson, a 52-year-old Canadian, took over the
leadership of Gold Fields 18 month ago. It's his job to
talk up the price of gold. But even for an unabashed
gold bug, Thompson is making sure everyone knows where
he stands on the metal's coming fortune.
Gold Fields has eliminated nearly all of its forward
hedging of gold. The company, which produces 4 million
ounces a year, reported a 10-fold increase in
sequential quarterly earnings at the end of 1999.
Thompson says Gold Fields was the first big gold
producer to stop forward-hedging. (Gold Fields has a
small amount of forward-sale commitments, like at a
gold project in Ghana. Thompson says this is because
the lenders backing the project require the hedges to
safeguard their loans.)
Hedges help gold companies get a better price. But they
also put selling pressure on the metal. Net selling of
borrowed gold boosts the world's total supply by about
10 percent. Central banks' selling of gold -- the banks
have about 20,000 tons of the metal in their vaults --
also has hurt gold prices.
Thompson believes a stock market crash will spark a
rush into gold. "When the bubble bursts, what do you
want to own? The big money is going into gold,"
Thompson says.
Sure, he's outspoken. But he also puts his money where
his mouth is. Last autumn he stepped up to the plate
and bought gold at the Bank of England gold auction.
The purchases back then -- for $258 an ounce -- sparked
a wild but very brief rally in gold.
These days, ahead of yet another Bank of England gold
auction on March 21, gold prices are on hold. The price
of the April gold contract in New York is about $293 an
ounce.
The Gold Fields story, if you are one of the 18 or so
gold bugs left, is a good one. "South Africa is
becoming more friendly to investors," Thompson says.
Standard & Poor's recently bestowed an investment grade
rating on the nation's debt.
Also helping Gold Fields' stock: "We have led the way
in going unhedged, and the community is rewarding us
for that. We have had steadily improving operations. We
are getting our costs down and production up."
Cash costs in Gold Fields' fourth quarter decreased to
$220 an ounce while gold production rose 2.8 percent to
990,000 ounces. (Anglogold of South Africa is the
world's largest gold producer.) Thompson told me Gold
Fields states its gold reserves conservatively at 74
million ounces.
Gold Fields' shares listed on Nasdaq last May 10 and at
one point had doubled before losing value, like all
gold stocks in the past four weeks. The company's
market valuation is $2.25 billion. Barrick Gold's stock
market worth is $6.6 billion.
Thompson, who spent time as a venture capitalist in
Denver, says, "I've learned you can't call the price of
gold. Still, it has been a long hard winter in the gold
business, and it is time for springtime."
Let's hope, for the sake of those few gold bugs out
there, that Thompson is on the money.
-END-
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| To: DON who wrote () | 3/8/2000 7:02:00 PM | | From: jocko | | | |
Looks like the WSJ is paying attention :-)
12:20p EST Wednesday, March 8, 2000
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
The Wall Street Journal noticed gold and GATA today,
and in the process suggested that the price of gold
should be higher. This is largely because of GATA's
hectoring the newspaper in recent weeks. We hope the
paper will stay interested and begin pressing the
U.S. Treasury Department for answers to our
questions about the Exchange Stabilization Fund and
surreptitious government intervention in the
precious metals and equities markets.
Please post this as seems useful.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
* * *
DESPITE JITTERY MARKET, GOLD ISN'T SHINING
By Peter A. McKay
The Wall Street Journal
March 8, 2000
By most measures, gold ought to be golden again.
Demand for the metal surged 21 percent last year,
economists are worried about rising inflation, and
other commodity prices -- especially oil -- are
increasing, all of which have been bullish signs for
gold in the past. Volatile stock markets such as
the current one have also historically sent some
investors to the haven of gold.
But after a run-up to above $300 an ounce a few
weeks ago that had many analysts predicting gold
finally had recovered from its long slump, gold
prices have fallen and stalled near $290 an ounce.
Why isn't this a golden age?
Two reasons emerge, one having to do with
fundamentals, the other with perception. Concerns
that there is too much supply in the gold market has
hamstrung prices. Meanwhile, psychologically,
investors just have been finding other places to put
their money, shying away from gold as a haven.
Since the summer, when prices surged from 20-year
lows caused by over-supply worries, especially the
Bank of England's plan to dump a large amount of
gold on the market, the metal has been boosted
several times by one-time events. But invariably
gold has then given back most of the gains.
As usual in the gold market some conspiracy
theories, especially of price manipulation by
governments and gold borrowers, are gaining
popularity among a portion of investors to explain
the moribund gold price. Many industry analysts and
traders, on the other hand, explain the price
stagnation as simply further evidence of the metal's
ever-weakening role as a refuge from inflation.
"Basically, we're right back where we started," says
George Gero, a veteran gold trader at Prudential
Securities Inc., New York. "There's been some good
news (for prices), but we still don't have all the
ingredients in place to call this a true bull
market" for gold.
That much is clear. The latest rally began Feb. 4
after Canadian mining firm Placer Dome announced
that it would halt its gold hedging program, and
then several other major producers followed. That
meant there would be less metal on the market, since
gold producers' hedging usually involves selling the
commodity "forward" to lock in the current price in
case it takes a downturn later.
Gold futures immediately jumped $22.62 to $310 an
ounce. But prices have steadily inched down since,
closing at $292.20 yesterday on the Comex division
of the New York Mercantile Exchange, up $4.30 for
the day, but down $19 from the peak so far this year
of $312.70, on Feb. 7.
An even more extreme "false top" occurred in
September, when 15 European government banks
announced they would cap their gold sales. The metal
leapt $42.25 or 15 percent, climbing to $324.50 in
the next few weeks.
No one is expecting the metal to fall back to the
$250 levels seen this summer, although some analysts
have been forecasting the gold price to increase
since at least the European banks' announcement.
The metal is "hitting ascending bottoms right now,"
said gold-fund manager Harry Bingham, of Van Eck
Global in New York. "What it's going to take to
really bring up gold is time and a fundamental
perception change among investors. Everybody can't
get rich by buying stocks, retiring, and becoming a
day trader."
So far, though, just the opposite conclusion has
been built into gold prices, much to the chagrin of
bullish gold bugs.
Traders and analysts mostly shrugged off last
month's hedging cutoffs as a industry-specific
phenomenon, and then took heart in the dollar's
strength overseas and the Federal Reserve's recent
interest-rate increases as ample protection against
inflation.
The conspiracy theorists are seizing on the time of
gold's plateaus as evidence of foul play in the
market. Such theorists are given a bit of credence
in the gold market, which is less transparent than
the stock market.
"Historically, people would tell you that any time
gold is trading at a price less than 12-to-1 to the
price of oil, it's a bargain," says Bill Murphy,
chairman of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, an
investor group that communicates online and gets
some funding from gold companies. "Right now we're
at less than 10-to-1, and no one's saying anything"
about the phenomenon.
Mr. Murphy's organization has been lobbying the
federal government to investigate whether major gold
borrowers, including some gold companies, are
manipulating the metal's price so they can use
leased gold to make other investments, then repay
their loans with cheap metal later.
Most Wall Street gold-industry analysts don't buy
into the theory outright, although many say the
metal's fundamentals are more positive than its
current price might suggest.
World gold demand increased 21 percent to a record
3,278.4 tons in 1999, according to a recent report
by the World Gold Council trade group.
And World Gold Council analyst George Milling-
Stanley says the industry organization doesn't
expect any major production increases in the near
future, which would indicate that gold's price
should eventually increase.
However, he said recent episodes of producer hedging
and central-bank sales cannot entirely explain the
latest trends in the metal's price. Rather, he said
gold's very identity is undergoing a seismic shift
perhaps not seen since the 1970s when the United
States stopped pegging the dollar to gold and began
allowing private ownership of it.
Mr. Milling-Stanley said the metal's value now is
more affected by speculative trading, increasingly
complex hedging programs, and foreign-exchange rates
in the newly global, electronic economy.
He characterized the fall announcement by the
central banks as a step toward eliminating just one
specter hanging over the gold market, albeit an
important one.
"You have to look at this as a whole set of
circumstances," Mr. Milling-Stanley said. "The
market had believed that there was going to be a
major series of central-bank gold sales, but with
that fear eliminated by the September agreement,
gold is no longer a one-way bet."
-END-
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| To: DON who wrote () | 3/12/2000 2:31:00 PM | | From: jocko | | | |
Just think how many people would read this if MIQ wuz to "pick up a couple of bucks" :-)
1:30p EST Sunday, March 12, 2000
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Harry J. Clawar has documented the suppression of the
gold price in the market in New York after its rise on
other markets around the world. Of course this tends to
support GATA's contention that hidden forces are at
work in the United States to distort the gold market for
the benefit of the U.S. dollar. You can read this
important article at the Gold-Eagle Internet site:
gold-eagle.com
Please post this as seems useful.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
-END-
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| To: DON who wrote () | 3/16/2000 6:21:00 PM | | From: jocko | | | |
2a EST Thursday, March 16, 2000
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Here's another great essay by Reginald H. Howe,
Harvard-trained lawyer and former mining company
executive. Please post it as seems useful.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
* * *
Collision Course: Gold and Greenspan
By Reginald H. Howe
www.GoldenSextant.com
March 14, 2000
Alan Greenspan has not always had as much difficulty
defining money and differentiating it from credit as he
did in his Humphrey-Hawkins testimony quoted in my
prior commentary. In his 1966 essay "Gold and Economic
Freedom" (reprinted in A. Rand, "Capitalism: The
Unknown Ideal"), the future Fed chairman discussed the
consequences of the Federal Reserve's decision in 1927
to reduce interest rates in response to a mild U.S.
contraction and continuing losses of British gold due
to politically inspired lower rates in Britain:
The Fed succeeded: It stopped the gold loss, but it
nearly destroyed the economies of the world in the
process. The excess credit the Fed pumped into the
economy spilled over into the stock market, triggering
a fantastic speculative boom. Belatedly, the Fed
attempted to sop up the excess reserves and finally
succeeded in braking the boom. But it was too late; by
1929 the speculative imbalances had become so
overwhelming that the attempt precipitated a sharp
retrenching and a consequent demoralizing of business
confidence. As a result the American economy collapsed.
Great Britain fared even worse, and rather than absorb
the consequences of her previous folly, she abandoned
the gold standard completely in 1931, tearing asunder
what remained of the fabric of confidence and inducing
a worldwide series of bank failures. The world plunged
into the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Today the Fed's critics see wild speculation,
particularly in the technology sector, where stock
market valuations exceed all historic norms of
rationality. But the Fed chairman is among the most
influential propagandists for the so-called "new"
economy. Cogent commentaries on the new economy by
Veneroso Associates (www.venerosoassociates.com)
suggest not only that the new economy's claimed
productivity increases are greatly exaggerated, but
also that no one should be more aware of the shaky
statistical foundations that underlie them than Alan
Greenspan himself. (See "The Myth of the Productivity
Miracle: Part III," Sept. 20, 1999, pp. 2-3.) Indeed,
the Fed chairman must know, the United States is the
only major country that uses the hedonic price deflator
to adjust its gross domestic product statistics for the
increased power of computers. (See "The Myth of the
Productivity Miracle: Part II," Sept. 20, 1999, p. 7.)
While the distortions of GDP resulting from this
practice are difficult to quantify precisely, there can
be no question but that the result is a significant
overstatement of GDP relative to both historic
experience and other nations.
Wide availability of high speed computer power has
given birth to a huge business in financial
derivatives. Indeed, the Black-Scholes option pricing
formula in combination with dynamic or so-called
"delta" hedging has revolutionized financial markets.
Highly complex trading strategies based on these
concepts produced the 1998 Long-Term Capital Management
debacle (www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/stockmarket), which
threatened the world payments system enough to scare
the Fed into three interest rate reductions when it
should have been moving in the other direction.
Nevertheless, both Greenspan and the secretary of the
U.S. Treasury Department have portrayed financial
derivatives as useful financial stabilizers not
requiring further regulation by Congress. (See, among
others, Statement of Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System, House Banking Committee, March 25,
1999, www.house.gov/banking/32599fed.htm.)
Black-Scholes and delta hedging require estimates of
volatility based on historic experience and operate
properly only in fully liquid markets. Whatever the
benefits of financial derivatives in normal markets,
unexpected volatility or loss of market liquidity can
raise havoc with them, leading not just to large losses
but to market destabilizing events. Like LTCM, the
problems of Ashanti, Cambior, and certain gold banks
brought on by the Washington Agreement illustrate what
can happen when financial derivatives crash on wrong
assumptions or abnormal conditions. With his usual
insight, John Hathaway gives an update on the gold
banking situation in his most recent article,
"Apocalypse No" (February 2000,
www.tocqueville.com/brainstorms/brainstorm0057.shthm).
Similar incidents are possible in interest rate or
stock market derivatives, particularly under the
unusual conditions that could follow from the
Treasury's bond repurchases or an unwinding of current
egregious overvaluations in leading NASDAQ tech and net
stocks. But far more frightening would be the
consequences of a panic flight from the dollar on
almost all financial derivatives.
A statistical analysis of recent gold price movements
provides further evidence of Anglo-American
manipulation of the gold market. (See H. Clawar, "A New
Gold War?" (March 13, 2000, www.gold-
eagle.com/editorials_00/clawar031300.html). While
Greenspan denies that the Fed is trying to control
gold, he must know whether the United States and
British treasury departments are actively involved in a
coordinated scheme to cap the gold price. Indeed, the
vehemence of the denial that Greenpsan made in a letter
to U.S. Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman regarding possible Fed
interference in the gold market suggests an effort to
distance both the Fed and its chairman from an expected
scandal over manipulation of the gold price.
Yet as long as this manipulation takes place sub rosa,
gold's usefulness as a monetary indicator is
compromised. One result is unwarranted criticism of the
Fed's efforts to restrain credit growth. See, among
others, J. Wanniski, "The Numeraire" -- Supply-Side
University: Spring Semester, Lesson 6, March 10, 2000
(www.polyconomics.com/searchbase/03-10-00.html) ("There
can be no 'inflation' or 'deflation' with gold
constant," and only a "noodlehead" would think
otherwise.)
The Fed chairman acts as if the new economy is the
productive miracle that its fans assert, that financial
derivatives are the generally benign stabilizers that
their promoters claim, and that the gold price is as
sensitive as ever to monetary debasement. In the
process he has put himself in the same position as his
predecessors in 1927-29. Speculative imbalances, fed by
grossly excessive credit creation and abetted by
dubious financial hedging strategies, are allowed to
grow. At the same time, the gold market -- with British
connivance -- is rigged. But what is different this
time is that the gold standard cannot be made the
scapegoat for the Fed's errors.
Domestically, of course, the currency is no longer tied
to gold. Going off gold was supposed to give the
central bank greater flexibility in managing the
nation's money supply. Instead, the result has been to
undercut not just its ability to regulate money and
credit but also the very foundation of the banking
system itself. Banking depends on a workable
distinction between money and credit. Without it, the
Fed cannot control the growth of the broad monetary and
credit aggregates, and banks no longer possess a unique
franchise separate and distinct from other financial
intermediaries.
Money market funds buying commercial paper, government
agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac securitizing
loans, and brokerage firms making margin loans all act
effectively to expand credit, but they do so outside
the constraints of bank reserve and capital
requirements. For an interesting discussion of this
process and its effects on the monetary aggregates, see
D. Noland, "The Credit Bubble Bulletin -- Commercial
Paper," March 10, 2000
(www.prudentbear.com/markcomm/markcomm.htm). Banking
based on gold is a demanding business that done
properly is a public good; banking without gold is a
crippled business that, however done, has heretofore
always ended in an orgy of paper and national ruin.
Internationally, the euro is poised to assume many if
not all of the settlement functions that since 1971
could be performed only by the dollar notwithstanding
the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system. What is
more, unless the European Central Bank and European
Union nations lose their nerve, the days of the United
States and Britain dictating international monetary
arrangements are over. There is no practical bar today
to the euro bloc's declaring full independence from the
dollar by linking the euro to gold in some meaningful
fashion. Indeed, a simple declaration that henceforth
most of the EU's international monetary reserves will
be held in gold rather than foreign currencies would
likely have major adverse consequences for the dollar
and the pound.
Nor is monetary confrontation with the euro the only
possible nightmare scenario for the dollar. A problem
for any world reserve currency is that major external
holders of the currency have a potential weapon they
can use against the reserve currency country. The
importance of this weapon is magnified when the
domestic financial structure of the reserve currency
country is overextended or its external accounts are
out of balance. Thus today, for example, any major
confrontation between the United States and China over
Taiwan would inevitably be complicated not only by
questions about what China might do with its very
substantial dollar reserves, but also by what other
large holders of dollar reserves might do to counter
any threat to the value of their holdings.
What was once known as the Great War became the First
World War largely due to the unwillingness of Western
democracies to face hard facts at domestic political
cost. What Greenspan was able to call the Great
Depression could well become the First World Depression
for fundamentally similar reasons. Although another
global depression would almost certainly knock the
dollar from its reserve currency perch, it would mark
not so much the end of a dollar-based financial world
as the end of an illusion: that paper can replace gold
as permanent, international money.
Just as the Second World War forced a return to greater
realism in the conduct of international relations, a
Second World Depression should bring about restoration
of a more normal gold-based international monetary
system. But in this event, Greenspan, having set out to
play Winston Churchill, is likely to end in the role of
Neville Chamberlain -- the man run over by realities
that he could not see or would not admit.
-END-
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| To: DON who wrote () | 5/11/2000 12:20:00 PM | | From: jocko | | | |
Why do I get the feeling ..... nobody's home :-)
1a EDT Thursday, May 10, 2000
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
On Wednesday the GATA delegation to Washington met
with high officials of Congress and their staffs to present
evidence that the price of gold is being manipulated and
that gold loans have reached levels that threaten the U.S.
and world banking systems. We presented GATA's new
report, "Gold Derivative Banking Crisis," and asked that
Congress inquire officially into the gold market.
We had three meetings at the Capitol and were well
received at each. We were asked to provide certain
additional information and particularly potential questions
for various government officials and financial institutions,
and to return to Washington soon for additional meetings
with some of the people we met Wednesday.
We will have a few more meetings today.
You'll have to forgive my being a little vague here; it
wouldn't be right to identify yet those who met with us
and who are considering getting involved with the gold
issue. Besides, it might expose them to premature
intervention or retaliation from gold's enemies. But I
hope it will suffice to say that today couldn't have
gone better, that we couldn't have met with more
important people with more appropriate jurisdiction
over the gold issue, that GATA now has brought and
will continue to bring the gold issue to the highest
levels of the U.S. government, and that we are hopeful
and even confident now that much will come from this
in the next few months and that our support from the
gold industry will grow with our success.
Please post this as seems useful.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
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| To: jocko who wrote (2612) | 5/11/2000 10:00:00 PM | | From: rohheck | | | |
Hey Jocko, you are not alone, take a look at this hit this link to the Slanker Report, he really makes some strong points. He also say some stuff about Silver Eagle. Our day is here, the high flyers are fading slowly and inflation with higher interest rates are here. Gold will rule again.
slanker.com |
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| To: jocko who wrote (2612) | 5/11/2000 10:40:00 PM | | From: jbr29 | | | |
Hi Jocko,
Was that you who posted at LeMetropolecafe about a year and a half or so ago about Mirandor ? I bought a slug of the stock back then and basically just forgot about it. I can see from the stock price that there has been no favorable news.
I recall that there was some kind of agreement with Kinross that Kinross eventually opted out of. What are MIQ's prospects from here ?
Thanks in advance |
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| To: jbr29 who wrote (2614) | 5/12/2000 11:00:00 AM | | From: jocko | | | |
Hi jbr,
Probably..... I have been a subscriber/friend of Bill Murphy for quite awhile. Brandon (stokks) provided the effort and info regarding the comparison to early ABX. I still have all my MIQ and if GATA succeeds, and I think they will, then it will have been a long wait but well worth it. If you are interested in gold, you really should check out GATA.org :-)
I hear Giles has signed an agreement to negotiate (or something like that) and that there are a couple of other companies waiting in the wings. I still believe Railroad has a lot of gold, if someone can just find it.
Thats really all I know so I won't pay much attention..... until gold does it's thing ($600 plus :-)regards
j |
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| To: rohheck who wrote (2613) | 5/12/2000 11:04:00 AM | | From: jocko | | | |
Hi rohheck,
Thanks. GATA is still in DC and is gaining a lot of support from people who can do something about the MANIPULATION of the gold markets.
Regards
j |
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| To: jocko who wrote (2615) | 5/12/2000 6:08:00 PM | | From: jbr29 | | | |
Thanks Jocko,
No conversion to GATA/gold needed here. Been a long time supporter of Bill since his "Dutch Sale" thread began on SI a coupla three years ago. Am well connected to GATA/Lemetropole.
My principal concern is the viability of MIQ. I know they are a threadbare organization. How much longer can they continue without an injection of new capital ?
Thanks |
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