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   Technology StocksResearch Frontiers (REFR)


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To: chase1389 who wrote (27365)6/14/2019 12:27:06 PM
From: 613
   of 29181
 
Thank you for you comments.

>> dwarf Daimler volumes starting in calendar year 2020
Was 'dwarf' JH's term? I assume that this just means that the automaker's entire volume dwarfs Daimler. This then means very little to how many cars will have the option or what the volume is of the cars that do get the option.

>> Gauzy is using TelAviv as a lab for Stuttgart.
Again - did JH say this or is this your conclusion? To me, it was rather obvious - in spite of others on the board quoting the operational plant in Israel.

Since you have traveled the world to follow SPD, you probably have some good insight into what has been holding SPD back. All the current excitement is due to Gauzy. The 'only' thing Gauzy adds is 1.8m film. Hitachi could supply all the auto glass demand for the foreseeable future. Do you believe not having a second source of film has been a serious holdup?

Was there any information about architectural projects waiting on the wide film? I'm not convinced that the default dark state will be competitive with other options. REFR could do well without that but it would be a huge statement if SPD glass was installed in some large 'regular' buildings.

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From: dimtint6/14/2019 1:03:00 PM
5 Recommendations   of 29181
 
For me the big take aways from the am are:

1) Company is very upbeat and moving forward quickly, in an expansive way. Post Gauzy RFI, vs Hitachi alone RFI, are totally different companies in terms of the outlook. The past is now the past.

2) 20 vehicles with SPD expected in the next 18 months mostly coming in 2020. This includes the 5 MB’s, 4 McLarens and 2 Rivians that we know about (the Rivians haven’t been confirmed by RFI(although we know for sure)). So 9 more--some of which possibly won’t make it.

3) After 2020, the number of models just keeps going up.

4) Joe clarified that there is a model coming next year with higher volumes even than the W223(that’s the new model S class). Figure the W223 is 80-120k vehicles across all model variants, so you get a big number. There aren’t that many models that do 100k+ units, so it’s getting pretty mainstream at that point. Joe said that model will dwarf all the SPD used currently across all industries.

5) Joe expects the w223 to use SPD. Given MB’s consolidation of stand-alone options,(my guess) it makes sense that MSC will be part of a package finally, so expect much higher volumes of the on the w223 S class

6) Joe is not concerned that the EQ’s (That’s Mercedes upcoming EV line) thus far have not mentioned SPD.

7) Not sure if it’s part of the 20, but Joe said AGP had 15 very solid leads/project models

8) OEMs need about a year these days to be comfortable with SPD

9) Gauzy is customer focused in a way Hitachi was not, though may have to be on things like price, lead times, and warranty

10) Panasonics/NSG gen 2.0 is projector free, so figure lcd/oled/ plasma whatever display tech you want will marry to SPD layer as a backlight blocker, rather than as a glare attenuator.

11) Mike LaPointe is handling the front end of VariGaurd while Seth VV is increasingly focused on CFO function. They’re working on an off the shelf kind of Variguard product for the Xmen 1 kind of collector(rather than the Action comic 1 kind of collector) . They have a low cost laminator set up, so that seems like the big issues the rest is commodity stuff, like frames and mats. Seth said the distribution channel is TBD, but it sounds like it is coming quickly. The really high end Museums, Action comics 1, picasso’s on yachts, remains bespoke.



I left with a very positive sense. Basically, since 2010, when Hitachi got a commercial product, the proof of concepts has been proven and with Gauzy, they have a lower cost and customer focus that combined with a readier backdrop(see view, halio, gauzt etc) got the ducks in a row.

My own view is that Softbank really rang the bell on the timing . If you figure that they say View is worth 2 billion with 50 million in sales, then REFR with 1.5 million in sales, representing 10- 15 million in revenues for the SPD industry should be worth something like 400 million or $13/share right now. JMO, but I think justifiable. Bottom line is, that the pipeline is emerging, and where the sales are going to come from is in place.

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To: dimtint who wrote (27371)6/14/2019 1:26:44 PM
From: JoAnnBarbour
2 Recommendations   of 29181
 
Great stuff as usual, dt. Thanks much for sharing.

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To: dimtint who wrote (27371)6/14/2019 3:37:18 PM
From: 613
   of 29181
 
Don't bother reading if you only want positive spins
Thanks for the recap of the meeting. Things might be different, yet again, but not from anything I've heard.

>>1) Company is very upbeat and moving forward quickly, in an expansive way. Post Gauzy RFI, vs Hitachi alone RFI, are totally different companies in terms of the outlook. The past is now the past.

Sort of like when JH said now they don't just have a Ferrari but now they have a Ferrari with an engine. I was at that meeting. I forget how long ago that was - over 15 years.

>>2) 20 vehicles with SPD expected in the next 18 months mostly coming in 2020. This includes the 5 MB’s, 4 McLarens and 2 Rivians that we know about (the Rivians haven’t been confirmed by RFI(although we know for sure)). So 9 more--some of which possibly won’t make it.

Just last month, I wrote that the 19 models were already accounted for in the 10K. And a couple pumpers here jumped on me saying that JH meant 'NEW' models. If something JH says can be taken as a positive or a negative - it's a safe bet that to take it the most negative way.

>>3) After 2020, the number of models just keeps going up.

Let's see them hit just one target before moving on to the next.

>>4) Joe clarified that there is a model coming next year with higher volumes even than the W223(that’s the new model S class). Figure the W223 is 80-120k vehicles across all model variants, so you get a big number. There aren’t that many models that do 100k+ units, so it’s getting pretty mainstream at that point. Joe said that model will dwarf all the SPD used currently across all industries.

See my post earlier to today about the use of the word 'dwarf'.

>>6) Joe is not concerned that the EQ’s (That’s Mercedes upcoming EV line) thus far have not mentioned SPD.

Did you really expect for JH to say that it will not have SPD unless it was in plain sight?
>>8) OEMs need about a year these days to be comfortable with SPD

Considering that JH has been saying that all the major OEMs have been working with SPD for years, this seems to be a step backward.

>>10) Panasonics/NSG gen 2.0 is projector free, so figure lcd/oled/ plasma whatever display tech you want will marry to SPD layer as a backlight blocker, rather than as a glare attenuator.

This has me more interested than auto, at the moment. RFI needs a few years of doubling revenues. I don't see that coming from auto for a while.

>>11) Mike LaPointe is handling the front end of VariGaurd while Seth VV is increasingly focused on CFO function. They’re working on an off the shelf kind of Variguard product for the Xmen 1 kind of collector(rather than the Action comic 1 kind of collector) . They have a low cost laminator set up, so that seems like the big issues the rest is commodity stuff, like frames and mats. Seth said the distribution channel is TBD, but it sounds like it is coming quickly. The really high end Museums, Action comics 1, picasso’s on yachts, remains bespoke.

When I spoke with a BOD member years ago about Variguard, he basically agreed with me that he doesn't see revenue from Variguard as important but it is worthwhile for the contacts they make showing it. Variguard will never produce enough revenue to warrant the salaries and $ they spend on it. This is all a distraction.

>>... REFR with 1.5 million in sales, representing 10- 15 million in revenues for the SPD industry should be worth something like 400 million or $13/share right now.

REFR will never have the inflated PE to justify that kind of price until they show huge sales GROWTH - qtr over qtr, year over year.

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To: 613 who wrote (27373)6/14/2019 4:03:34 PM
From: dimtint
3 Recommendations   of 29181
 
<<Ferrari>> I was probably at that meeting too. There is no doubt in my mind that the price reflects the history of those kind of statements. One reason I follow it closely now is b/c I took a lot for granted then

19 is not like the s550 + the s450 + the s350l make 3 models. MB's 5 models are slc, sl, s sedan, maybach and s coupe so just 5. Same with mclaren just 4 and 2 rivians. total is 11 which leaves 9 unaccounted for. I asked Joe directly about that.

It's different imo. but you have to decide what to believe obviously.

one more point in terms of hit/gauzy. If the film cost scales with size, which it does pretty much, then the cutting waste for a 30 +24 inch sunroof with 40 inch hitachi film is like 25% more than Gauzy coating at 30 inches right off the bat all else equal. Gauzy is also making less expensive film--they don't have the sunk cost to make up. Cost matters a lot. Not to mention customer service

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To: 613 who wrote (27373)6/14/2019 5:55:45 PM
From: N. Dixon
   of 29181
 
Who are you trying to convince of this "downside." The market decides the future of SPD. With 19 models looking at it for products (spending their own monies to do this) we can extrapolate from that there is a lot of interest in the automotive sector. With the revealing that a model that will "dwarf" Mercedes will be produced in 2020, we know that revenues will increase. From the 3 people I've spoken or messaged with, the takeaway from the meeting was that revenues can start being significant, i.e. close to profitable, within the next 12-18 months.

ND

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To: dimtint who wrote (27371)6/14/2019 8:33:38 PM
From: JubilationT
   of 29181
 
Joe said that model will dwarf all the SPD used currently across all industries.

Meaning as "standard equipment"...sounds like.

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To: JubilationT who wrote (27376)6/14/2019 11:19:53 PM
From: wallstreetbull
   of 29181
 
I guess some people dont understand the term "dwarf". Lol

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To: JubilationT who wrote (27376)6/15/2019 7:51:53 AM
From: slipperywhenwet
1 Recommendation   of 29181
 
"Meaning as "standard equipment"...sounds like."

Possibly the use of Continental's Intelligent Glass System throughout vehicle.

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To: slipperywhenwet who wrote (27378)6/15/2019 2:58:50 PM
From: firstresponder
4 Recommendations   of 29181
 
Possibly the use of Continental's Intelligent Glass System throughout vehicle.
Welll, we know Continental used the Ford Mondeo to test their IGU system. And we know that Ford has invested $500 million that will help Rivian's first two EVs get off the ground.

Then there's this interesting bit of speculation from Business Insider as to where the Rivian/Ford partnership might be headed:
In a statement, Ford and Rivian said they had "agreed to work together to develop an all-new, next-generation battery electric vehicle for Ford's growing EV portfolio" using Rivian's platform.Neither company indicated whether that would be a pickup. Ford's F-150 pickup has been the best-selling vehicle in the US for decades, and the carmaker has said it intends to electrify the truck. That process is now well underway.
BIG "if," but the entire F-Series sold about 900K trucks in the US in 2019. The F-150 accounted for over half of them. Even if it's not the F-150, to me Ford still sounds like a good bet as a Continental IGU customer because:
Ford said in March 2018 that globally it will be creating 16 fully electric vehicles and 40 electrified vehicles through 2022.

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