| To: JubilationT who wrote (18226) | 8/5/2016 8:09:37 PM | | From: Auger50 | | | | | Yeah, I don't have access to the research piece but I'm assuming the downgrade is related to the uncertainty to Mercedes production schedule. Likely frustrated with all of the delays in getting MSC in the S-Sedan and finally when Mercedes decides to offer MSC (over a year later than investors expected) on the sedan it comes at a time when production cuts are scheduled due to mid cycle car demand. It was exciting when the S class figure was set to be 80-120k a year, but what is it now? |
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| To: Auger50 who wrote (18227) | 8/5/2016 9:05:41 PM | | From: JubilationT | | | | Ok,
Do you know how many of the Markham Hearing issues went to our side?
Say at 100k on the S-Sedans, say at 20% with MSC @ $150 a pop, would have given us 3million. Would you say that it is still in the works?
There are many many applications available for spd especially if the price has come down considerably. Less for RFI per but the volume, in time, can do wonders for the bottom line.
The question, at least for me, is: Can I be patient enough to put up with JH's gibberish explanations and his collection of all that undeserved (opinion) enormous pay. |
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| To: JubilationT who wrote (18229) | 8/5/2016 9:32:07 PM | | From: Auger50 | | | | Not sure on details surrounding hearing as I'm more focused on the underlying business but considering most of their revenues comes from Mercedes I thought the total numbers of cars with MSC in the Q to be extremely low! Joe reinforced that the take rate has been higher than even Mercedes expected which is awesome...until we play around with some figures.
For simplicity's sake, lets say all of REFR's revenue came from Mercedes vehicles. We know that revenue for Q2 was $244k. Using the low end fee/vehicle royalty rate of $150.00 we get a total of of 1,626 vehicles (1626 *$150=$244k). I realize that not all of REFR's business comes from auto's, but 1,626 vehicles in a quarter is extremely low considering investors are thinking about an annual rate of 120k vehicles produced per year with the potential to use MSC as an option. If this quarterly number of cars was annualized, we would get 6,504 cars which would mean a take rate of 5%ish (6,504/120,000).
Is my math outlandish? Please comment your opinion. |
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| To: Auger50 who wrote (18230) | 8/5/2016 10:27:44 PM | | From: davegreen | | | | | The 120K vehicles per year with a high take rate sounds eerily similar to the 5K airplane windows per month forecasted and publicly stated by RFI nearly 15 years ago. Maybe it will be different this time. Amazing. |
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| To: Auger50 who wrote (18228) | 8/6/2016 10:22:13 AM | | From: dimtint | | | | Auger50 asks: "Thoughts on the recent Q?"
I'm disappointed.
I assume that given the refresh of the SLK and the SL, volumes were very very low and perhaps there was no MSC incorporated into the final build. Also MB's MY17 S Class DOG, has MSC as new for the '17 models. We've seen some late build 2016 V222's with MSC, but maybe those were March builds and there weren't too many of them.
In the past there has been more stockpiling of MSC roof systems, and so I would have expected to see May/June sales for the SLC/SL. Perhaps it's more' just in time' theses days.
My big question is how much has the pricing for the SPD come down and is that what we are seeing. The SLK/SL range was $100-$150/unit and the S was $150-$250/unit. Could we be under that range now?
If you take Joe at his word that take rates have never been higher, then it's total production volume and cost of the film. I think Joe wouldn't lie outright about the take rates and so I assume very few cars were built and that pricing has dropped a lot.
Looking beyond Q2, my view is that the technology has made a lot of headway in the last few years and that we're seeing accelerating adoption across a lot of different industries. A year ago, there were no OEM airplanes using SPD, despite years of talking about it. Now there are 5 models that actually are flying (the Hawkers, Hondajet and the EC175(only one, made but still:))
I see no reason to assume linear adoption rates, and so we are early in the s shaped adoption curve, but we are going up it.
Cost of film, awareness and network effect(does it work, who can vouch for it, where can I touch it etc) are the big obstacles to big adoption and we're starting to see that take hold.
Mercedes isn't taking a flyer on it, this is the 5th or 6th model year that they are using it and they've put it into their marquee models. So I assume we see it trickle down through their model line over time, maybe before the next OEM.
But it's not a quarter to quarter gamble. Inspectech was showing interior SPD partitions 6 years ago, apparently it took that long for a commercial airline to try it in the real world.
I remain hopeful that this pays off, from the vantage point of a $3 stock, but I would certainly be headed for the exits were the stock in the teens given what we know. |
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| To: dimtint who wrote (18232) | 8/6/2016 11:29:37 AM | | From: JubilationT | | | | "...very few cars were built and that pricing has dropped a lot."
If very few cars were built, then, it would not be RFI's fault.
Price drop? If this were true, it may explain reference to architectural. In the past, the price was just too high for application into architectural realm. We'll have to wait in see what projects are announced that has spd windows, partitions, etc...
If Mr. Harary was more forthcoming instead of cloaking his comments through the side of his mouth...
Meaning, we need to know the actual take rate and exactly how much we got for each. Not just for MB but a true breakdown. Aren't investors entitled to know?
Even though Mr. Harary has denied that MB has an exclusive, why then has none others come on board?
SPD is the best thing to come along since...(isn't it?) |
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