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   Biotech / MedicalBiogen

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From: mopgcw2/6/2009 5:47:07 PM
   of 1684
more fun'n'games: Icahn Proposes Four Biogen Directors and Move to North Dakota
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By Elizabeth Lopatto

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Investor Carl Icahn nominated four Biogen Idec Inc. directors and proposed moving the corporate headquarters to North Dakota, signaling the billionaire’s second run for control of the biotechnology company.

Icahn, 72, nominated four people to Biogen’s 13-member board, according to a regulatory filing today. Icahn and his companies owned 6 percent of Biogen as of Sept. 30, making him the fourth-largest shareholder of the Cambridge, Massachusetts- based company.

Biogen, the world’s biggest maker of multiple sclerosis drugs, first became embroiled in a battle for control with Icahn in December 2007, when it ditched a plan to sell itself. Icahn, known for investing in companies he deems undervalued and pushing for change or a sale, lost an ensuing proxy fight with Biogen in June. Biogen shares have declined 30 percent since the company abandoned sale efforts.

To contact the reporter on this story: Elizabeth Lopatto in New York at

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From: mopgcw2/6/2009 7:24:40 PM
   of 1684
Biogen Faces Heavier Tysabri Pressure
R.W. Baird downgraded the biotech and lowered the target price.

Biogen Idec (BIIB: Nasdaq)
By R.W. Baird ($53.28, Feb. 6, 2009)

WE ARE DOWNGRADING TO NEUTRAL [from Outperform], new $50 price target [down from $55].

We are reducing our rating on Biogen Idec (ticker: BIIB) shares to Neutral [from Outperform] with a new $50 price target [down from $55]. Our new $50 price target is derived by applying a multiple of 12.5 times our 2009 earnings-per-share estimate of $4.04. We base this new opinion primarily on the concern that Tysabri pressure from new progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy [a brain infection] cases may be more acute than we had feared.

Recall that investors were comforted by stronger-than-expected patient numbers reported in early January. Recall also that we recently lowered our Tysabri estimates based on fear that foreign-exchange headwinds could shave as much as $10 million from our prior expectations. As it turns out, Tysabri revenue of $218 million was impacted by shortfalls both in the U.S. and outside the U.S.

In addition, while Avonex revenue reflected an impressive beat, we worry that competitive concerns downstream in 2009 (from Novartis' (NVS) FTY-720 and other competitors' pipeline multiple-sclerosis agents) may reduce sentiment on this agent.

In addition, we wonder how much more pricing flexibility Biogen has with Avonex, having grown the drug primarily on substantial price increases in recent quarters. As such, we are retreating to the sidelines here.

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From: Patrick Slevin4/7/2009 12:54:41 PM
   of 1684
To anyone;

Any idea why the sudden climb in Price this morning?

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To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (1642)4/7/2009 2:52:15 PM
From: mopgcw
   of 1684
rumors of a competitor to Carl making a play...

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To: mopgcw who wrote (1643)4/7/2009 3:01:32 PM
From: tuck
   of 1684
>>rumors of a competitor to Carl making a play...<< Specifically, Sanofi Aventis.

Cheers, Tuck

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To: mopgcw who wrote (1643)4/7/2009 3:10:10 PM
From: Patrick Slevin
   of 1684
Works for me, thanks!

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From: mopgcw4/17/2009 11:19:29 AM
   of 1684
CS: Biogen Idec. Inc. (BIIB) NEUTRAL [V] M. Aberman
CP: US$ 51.49 TP: US$ 54 CAP: US$ 15.3b
Remain Cautious with Tysabri Still Weak, Revising Estimates

• Conclusion: On the positive side, while the top-line disappointed Biogen was able to beat through better expenses and a one
time tax gain. The company did not see a major impact from inventory or economy related issues that have plagued some of
its peers. That said, Avonex saw minimal sequential growth despite ~10% price increases two quarters in a row and Rituxan
sales came in light. More important, Tysabri net patients adds did not rebound this quarter and the per patient revenue
continued to decline. Causes of the decline could include the economy with more patients receiving free drug; but, we believe
it is more likely due to fewer doses per patient per month as patients delay doses and take drug holidays. The decline in
revenue/patient adds another headwind to Tysabri that may offset a potential rebound in net patient additions. We look
forward to the upcoming AAN meeting to get feedback on Tysabri as well as PIII data from potential competitive MS agents.

• What's New? Biogen Idec reported non-GAAP EPS of $1.05 (excl. options) vs. our estimate of $1.02 and consensus of $0.91.
Revenues of $1,036 M were lighter than our and consensus estimates of $1,095 M and $1,077 M respectively. The better
than expected EPS was primarily driven by lowering operating expenses and a one-time tax benefit. Guidance was reiterated
for 2009 including high single digit revenue growth and non-GAAP EPS above $4.00.

• Implication: Remain Neutral with a $54 Price Target. We have adjusted our model and now value Biogen using a DCF model
given its low long-term growth rate but strong cash flow. While we prefer to sit on the sidelines to see what happens with
Tysabri, we think the upcoming proxy battle and a strong balance sheet could lead to a more aggressive share buyback and
boost Biogen's share price. Absent that move, however, we think the stock will remain range bound until Tysabri
reaccelerates or something positive emerges from the late stage pipeline.

• Valuation based on DCF, P/E no longer applicable. We are moving our valuation basis to a DCF analysis as the P/E
valuation is no longer applicable for Biogen. We believe that Biogen will only achieve a modest 6% annual growth rate in
earnings over 2009E-2012E, no longer allowing it to be viewed as a growth company that can be valued on the basis of a
multiple to earnings. Our DCF analysis supports a $54 price target assuming a 10.2% cost of capital, a 6% annual cash flow
growth rate from 2013-2016, and a terminal growth rate of 2% in 2016.

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To: mopgcw who wrote (1646)4/17/2009 5:19:20 PM
From: tuck
   of 1684
A sixth brain infection case from an ex- U.S. patient who had been on Tysabri for 31 months.


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From: mopgcw5/14/2009 11:44:41 AM
   of 1684
What was the point of the merger in the first place if this is the new goal... (edit -- i mean how on earth does CI believe that de-merging will ADD value -- other than to the lawyers that is)...

UPDATE: Icahn Suggests Biogen Split As Proxy War Continues
By Thomas Gryta

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Billionaire investor Carl Icahn wants Biogen Idec Inc. (BIIB) to consider splitting into two companies, one focusing on neurology and the other on cancer, as he wages his second proxy fight with the biotech company in as many years.

Icahn continued to criticize the Cambridge, Mass., company's effort to sell itself in late 2007, contends that management isn't focused on shareholder value, and made numerous references to his successful turnaround of ImClone Systems Inc. in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The Icahn group, which holds a 5.6% stake, is seeking four seats on Biogen's 13-seat board, a move that Biogen is opposing. The company's shareholder meeting is set for June 3.

"This seems like nothing more than an 11th hour tactic in order to win votes," said Biogen spokeswoman Naomi Aoki, who noted that the filing is the first time the company has heard of a plan to split the company.

Officials from Icahn's group were unavailable for comment.

Shares of Biogen recently traded down 1% to $48.70, but are down 23% in the last 12 months, compared to a 15% drop in the Amex Biotech Index.

Last month, Icahn's group began criticizing the $6.4 billion merger of Biogen with Idec Pharmaceuticals in 2003 that created the current company on the grounds that it never lived up to the projected synergies.

His proposal to split the company seems to effectively reverse that merger. The neurology-focused company would have reported $2.9 billion in sales in 2008, while a cancer-focused company would have reported $1.2 billion in sales. Biogen Idec's 2008 total revenue was $4.1 billion.

Icahn said the move would improve management's focus and the appeal of those assets to outside buyers.

Morgan Stanley analyst Steven Harr expects investors to have a "difficult time" with the Icahn plan, because it may trigger change-in-control provisions in Biogen's drug partnerships that could cause it to lose its shares in the drugs.

Biogen sells multiple-sclerosis treatment Tysabri with Elan PLC (ELN) and cancer/arthritis drug Rituxan is sold with Genentech Inc., a unit of Roche Holding AG (RHHBY).

Harr also noted that a separation could also trigger a downgrade of the individual companies' debt because of concentrated risk and reduced cash holdings.

In Tuesday's filing, Icahn proposed that he could reach similar results in turning around Biogen that he had with ImClone Systems. Icahn took control of ImClone in 2006, when its stock price was at $31, and sold the company to Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) last summer for $4.5 billion, or $70 a share.

As with ImClone, Icahn hopes to "recharge" partner relations with Genentech and Elan, shift the cost structure, and boost research and development in order to change the culture and bolster the company's pipeline.

The billionaire first became involved in Biogen in 2007, when he prompted a sale process that failed to attract any bidders. He attempted to put three people on the board last year but obtained only 19% of shareholders' votes.

Icahn has consistently disapproved of that sales process, claiming the company put up barriers in the auction process that discouraged companies from bidding the $20 billion to $25 billion needed to complete the deal. He subsequently filed a successful lawsuit seeking documents related to the sale attempt.

Biogen has contended that bidders were wary of the high price tag in relation to the risk related to Tysabri, which was withdrawn from the market for a period because it was suspected to cause a rare but often deadly brain disease.

-By Thomas Gryta, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2053;

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To: mopgcw who wrote (1648)5/14/2009 1:03:03 PM
From: kenhott
   of 1684
Mr. CI is in it for himself. Maybe with big pharmas narrowing their business focuses, splitting the company in two will get more bidders than the entire company as a whole??

OT-not Biogen- Killing two birds with one stone... <reply>

I don't really follow the company. But the drug is a pretty good one and it is pretty crazy that the law firm screwed up the filing. I would guess that the generics are using paragraph III to get to market, and as far as I know there is no way to tell which company has filed till after action by the FDA.

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