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Strategies & Market Trends Technical analysis for shorts & longs

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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (62508)	2/18/2025 4:48:02 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	of 63048

perplexity.ai Is there validated seasonality in the American stock market and if not is the seasonality in specific sectors of the market? Edit Query Best and Worst Months for the Stock Market - Seasonal Patterns tradethatswing Market Sector Seasonality & Seasonal Investing - MoneyTalks mikesmoneytalks How I analyze and use seasonal patterns in my trading approach seasonax +6 sources Answer Yes, there is validated seasonality in the American stock market, and specific sectors also exhibit seasonal patterns. Overall Market Seasonality The S&P 500 shows consistent seasonal patterns over the past 20 years (2005-2024): Best months: March, April, May, July, October, November, and December Worst months: January, June, August, and September 1 A well-known seasonal pattern is "Sell in May and go away," suggesting that markets tend to underperform during summer months (May to October) and outperform during winter months (November to April) 5 The "January Barometer" indicates that when January is an up month, the average return for the year (S&P 500) is around 17%, while a down January correlates with an average yearly return of -1.7% 1 Sector-Specific SeasonalityDifferent sectors of the market also display seasonal patterns: Financials (XLF): October and November are the strongest months relative to the broader market 6 Consumer Discretionary: Contrary to expectations, this sector doesn't necessarily spike during the holiday season 6 Communications Services (XLC): Shows strong seasonal performance from November to January 6 Energy Equipment Industry: Indicates a potential sharp upward trend beginning in late February 2 It's important to note that while these seasonal patterns exist, they are based on historical averages and do not guarantee future performance. Investors should use seasonality as one of many factors in their decision-making process, alongside fundamental and technical analysis 1 3. Share Export Rewrite Related Which sectors of the market exhibit the most pronounced seasonal patterns How do seasonal patterns differ between the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 Are there specific months when certain sectors of the market perform better How reliable are seasonal patterns in predicting stock market performance Do seasonal patterns in the stock market vary by year or are they consistent Which sectors of the market exhibit the most pronounced seasonal patterns Edit Query Seasonality on Financial Markets - Connect - Forecaster.biz forecaster Market Seasonality \| TrendSpider Learning Center trendspider Seasonal Investing - Equity Clock equityclock +5 sources Answer <div class="prose text-pretty dark:prose-invert inline leading-normal break-words min-w-0 [word-break:break-word]" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); scrollbar-color: auto; scrollbar-width: auto; --tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-pan-x: ; --tw-pan-y: ; --tw-pinch-zoom: ; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-gradient-from-position: ; --tw-gradient-via-position: ; --tw-gradient-to-position: ; --tw-ordinal: ; --tw-slashed-zero: ; --tw-numeric-figure: ; --tw-numeric-spacing: ; --tw-numeric-fraction: ; --tw-ring-inset: ; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,.5); --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-blur: ; --tw-brightness: ; --tw-contrast: ; --tw-grayscale: ; --tw-hue-rotate: ; --tw-invert: ; --tw-saturate: ; --tw-sepia: ; --tw-drop-shadow: ; --tw-backdrop-blur: ; --tw-backdrop-brightness: ; --tw-backdrop-contrast: ; --tw-backdrop-grayscale: ; --tw-backdrop-hue-rotate: ; --tw-backdrop-invert: ; --tw-backdrop-opacity: ; --tw-backdrop-saturate: ; --tw-backdrop-sepia: ; --tw-contain-size: ; --tw-contain-layout: ; --tw-contain-paint: ; --tw-contain-style: ; color: var(--tw-prose-body); max-width: 65ch; --tw-prose-body: oklch(var(--text-color-100)/); --tw-prose-headings: oklch(var(--text-color-100)/); --tw-prose-lead: oklch(var(--text-color-100)/); --tw-prose-links: oklch(var(--text-color-100)/); --tw-prose-bold: oklch(var(--text-color-100)/); --tw-prose-counters: oklch(var(--text-color-200)/); --tw-prose-bullets: oklch(var(--text-color-200)/); --tw-prose-hr: oklch(var(--border-color-100)/); --tw-prose-quotes: oklch(var(--text-color-100)/); --tw-prose-quote-borders: oklch(var(--border-color-100)/); --tw-prose-captions: oklch(var(--text-color-200)/); --tw-prose-kbd: #111827; --tw-prose-kbd-shadows: 17 24 39; --tw-prose-code: oklch(var(--text-color-100)/); --tw-prose-pre-code: oklch(var(--text-color-100)/); --tw-prose-pre-bg: oklch(var(--background-color-200)/); --tw-prose-th-borders: oklch(var(--border-color-100)/); --tw-prose-td-borders: oklch(var(--border-color-100)/); --tw-prose-invert-body: oklch(var(--dark-text-color-100)/); --tw-prose-invert-headings: oklch(var(--dark-text-color-100)/); --tw-prose-invert-lead: oklch(var(--dark-text-color-100)/); --tw-prose-invert-links: oklch(var(--dark-text-color-100)/); --tw-prose-invert-bold: oklch(var(--dark-text-color-100)/); --tw-prose-invert-counters: oklch(var(--dark-text-color-200)/); --tw-prose-invert-bullets: oklch(var(--dark-text-color-200)/); --tw-prose-invert-hr: oklch(var(--dark-border-color-100)/); --tw-prose-invert-quotes: oklch(var(--dark-text-color-100)/); --tw-prose-invert-quote-borders: oklch(var(--dark-border-color-100)/); --tw-prose-invert-captions: oklch(var(--dark-text-color-100)/); --tw-prose-invert-kbd: #fff; --tw-prose-invert-kbd-shadows: 255 255 255; --tw-prose-invert-code: oklch(var(--dark-text-color-100)/); --tw-prose-invert-pre-code: oklch(var(--dark-text-color-100)/); --tw-prose-invert-pre-bg: oklch(var(--dark-background-color-200)/); --tw-prose-invert-th-borders: oklch(var(--dark-border-color-100)/); --tw-prose-invert-td-borders: oklch(var(--dark-border-color-100)/); font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.5; display: inline; min-width: 0px; text-wrap: pretty; overflow-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-word;">Several sectors of the U.S. stock market exhibit pronounced seasonal patterns: Energy: This sector shows strong seasonality, particularly during summer months. Demand for crude oil and gasoline typically increases as people travel more frequently, leading to higher prices 7. Natural gas demand rises in winter months for heating purposes 2. Retail: The consumer discretionary sector experiences seasonal fluctuations driven by events such as holiday shopping and back-to-school seasons 2. However, contrary to expectations, this sector doesn't necessarily spike during the holiday season as much as one might think 3. Technology: The high-tech sector has a period of seasonal strength from the end of September to a time between the end of December and the end of January. This pattern is influenced by events like the annual Las Vegas consumer electronics show and fourth-quarter earnings reports 3. Financials: The XLF (Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund) shows strong performance relative to the broader market in October and November 3. Communications Services: The XLC (Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund) exhibits strong seasonal performance from November to January 3. These seasonal patterns are based on historical averages and should be used in conjunction with other forms of analysis for making investment decisions. It's important to note that while these patterns exist, they don't guarantee future performance and can be subject to change over time 4. Share Export Rewrite Related Which commodities are most affected by seasonal patterns How do seasonal patterns impact investor behavior What are the best strategies for trading during seasonal peaks How do seasonal patterns influence the retail sector Are there any sectors that exhibit counter-seasonal trends Which commodities are most affected by seasonal patterns Edit Query Seasonal Patterns in Ag Commodities: A Price Guide - TradeFundrr tradefundrr Seasonality and how it Affects Commodities financial-spread-betting Seasonal Tendencies in Commodities Provide Opportunities cordiercommodityreport +5 sources Answer <div class="prose text-pretty dark:prose-invert inline leading-normal break-words min-w-0 [word-break:break-word]" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); scrollbar-color: auto; scrollbar-width: auto; --tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-pan-x: ; --tw-pan-y: ; --tw-pinch-zoom: ; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-gradient-from-position: ; --tw-gradient-via-position: ; --tw-gradient-to-position: ; --tw-ordinal: ; --tw-slashed-zero: ; --tw-numeric-figure: ; --tw-numeric-spacing: ; --tw-numeric-fraction: ; --tw-ring-inset: ; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,.5); --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-blur: ; --tw-brightness: ; --tw-contrast: ; --tw-grayscale: ; --tw-hue-rotate: ; --tw-invert: ; --tw-saturate: ; --tw-sepia: ; --tw-drop-shadow: ; --tw-backdrop-blur: ; --tw-backdrop-brightness: ; --tw-backdrop-contrast: ; --tw-backdrop-grayscale: ; --tw-backdrop-hue-rotate: ; --tw-backdrop-invert: ; --tw-backdrop-opacity: ; --tw-backdrop-saturate: ; --tw-backdrop-sepia: ; --tw-contain-size: ; --tw-contain-layout: ; --tw-contain-paint: ; --tw-contain-style: ; color: var(--tw-prose-body); max-width: 65ch; --tw-prose-body: oklch(var(--text-color-100)/); --tw-prose-headings: oklch(var(--text-color-100)/); --tw-prose-lead: oklch(var(--text-color-100)/); --tw-prose-links: oklch(var(--text-color-100)/); --tw-prose-bold: oklch(var(--text-color-100)/); --tw-prose-counters: oklch(var(--text-color-200)/); --tw-prose-bullets: oklch(var(--text-color-200)/); --tw-prose-hr: oklch(var(--border-color-100)/); --tw-prose-quotes: oklch(var(--text-color-100)/); --tw-prose-quote-borders: oklch(var(--border-color-100)/); --tw-prose-captions: oklch(var(--text-color-200)/); --tw-prose-kbd: #111827; --tw-prose-kbd-shadows: 17 24 39; --tw-prose-code: oklch(var(--text-color-100)/); --tw-prose-pre-code: oklch(var(--text-color-100)/); --tw-prose-pre-bg: oklch(var(--background-color-200)/); --tw-prose-th-borders: oklch(var(--border-color-100)/); --tw-prose-td-borders: oklch(var(--border-color-100)/); --tw-prose-invert-body: oklch(var(--dark-text-color-100)/); --tw-prose-invert-headings: oklch(var(--dark-text-color-100)/); --tw-prose-invert-lead: oklch(var(--dark-text-color-100)/); --tw-prose-invert-links: oklch(var(--dark-text-color-100)/); --tw-prose-invert-bold: oklch(var(--dark-text-color-100)/); --tw-prose-invert-counters: oklch(var(--dark-text-color-200)/); --tw-prose-invert-bullets: oklch(var(--dark-text-color-200)/); --tw-prose-invert-hr: oklch(var(--dark-border-color-100)/); --tw-prose-invert-quotes: oklch(var(--dark-text-color-100)/); --tw-prose-invert-quote-borders: oklch(var(--dark-border-color-100)/); --tw-prose-invert-captions: oklch(var(--dark-text-color-100)/); --tw-prose-invert-kbd: #fff; --tw-prose-invert-kbd-shadows: 255 255 255; --tw-prose-invert-code: oklch(var(--dark-text-color-100)/); --tw-prose-invert-pre-code: oklch(var(--dark-text-color-100)/); --tw-prose-invert-pre-bg: oklch(var(--dark-background-color-200)/); --tw-prose-invert-th-borders: oklch(var(--dark-border-color-100)/); --tw-prose-invert-td-borders: oklch(var(--dark-border-color-100)/); font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.5; display: inline; min-width: 0px; text-wrap: pretty; overflow-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-word;">Several commodities exhibit strong seasonal patterns, with agricultural and energy products being particularly affected. The most pronounced seasonal patterns are observed in: Grains and Oilseeds: Corn: Prices typically bottom out in September-October during peak harvest and peak in July-August, with a 15-20% average price swing 1 2. Soybeans: Lowest prices occur in October-November, with highest prices in June-July, showing a 12-18% average price variation 1 2. Wheat: Experiences three distinct price cycles based on different wheat types, with an average price swing of 10-15% 1. Energy: Gasoline and Natural Gas: Demand increases in summer months due to driving season and air conditioning needs, leading to price increases in spring 3. Softs: Coffee and Sugar: Harvest time in South America (autumn in the southern hemisphere) significantly impacts prices 3. Cotton: Shows cyclical patterns tied to deliveries against futures contract expirations 2. Orange Juice: Prices tend to fall from November to January, with potential impacts from freeze periods 2. Livestock: Cattle: Peak supplies in October-November lead to 8-12% price declines 1. Hogs: Experience dual peaks in December and April with 10-15% price variations 1. Lamb: Shows 20-25% seasonal price swings, with peak production in March-May 1. Fresh Produce: Exhibits volatile seasonal cycles due to limited storage options, with price fluctuations tied to specific harvest periods for different types of produce 1. These seasonal patterns create opportunities for strategic buying and selling decisions, but it's important to note that global factors like climate change and international trade policies can influence and sometimes override traditional seasonal trends 1 3.

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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (62509)	2/18/2025 4:55:13 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	of 63048

M2 money supply versus inflation: inflation rate is in red, M2 in black. The Fed has been pumping money into the system since about the first rate cut. Notice the decline in inflation is leveling out. A reversal would mean a change in policy to removing money and raising rates.

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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (62510)	2/18/2025 12:32:19 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	1 Recommendation of 63048

Arm Just Nabbed a Major Chip Deal With Meta. Is ARM Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold Now? Aditya Raghunath - Barchart - 1 hour ago Columnist Follow this Author Share Technology by Alexandre Debieve via Unsplash Valued at a market cap of $167.1 billion, Arm Holdings (ARM) went public in late 2023 and has risen over 150% since its initial public offering. Like Nvidia (NVDA), Arm is at the epicenter of the artificial intelligence (AI) megatrend, which is driving its share price higher. Arm is transforming from a chip design licensing company to a direct producer of AI-focused processors. www.barchart.comThe semiconductor giant designs and licenses chips for data centers, among other use cases, aiming to compete with Nvidia and Intel (INTC). Analysts are bullish on Arm’s power-efficient architecture, which is valuable for energy-intensive AI applications. Additionally, the company’s market presence across mobile, Internet of Things (IOT), and automotive verticals positions it well for AI expansion. Check Out: 32,481% growth—this smartphone startup is disrupting the industry. Pre-IPO shares available. Active Investor: FREE newsletter going behind the headlines on the hottest stocks to uncover new trade ideas Historically, Arm has licensed its technology and designs so that other companies can make their own chips. But now, Arm is planning to launch its own AI chips by 2025, manufactured by partners like Taiwan Semi (TSM), while maintaining its customizable design approach for clients. According to a CNBC report, Arm has secured Meta Platforms (META) as an early customer, departing from its traditional role as a technology licensor. This move coincides with Meta’s massive $65 billion planned capex in artificial intelligence this year, although Arm’s chip will focus on server processing rather than AI-specific graphics processing. The news drove Arm’s shares up 6% in a single trading session last week, adding to its 29% gain in 2025. A Strong Performance in Fiscal Q3 2025Arm reported strong financial performance in the third quarter of its fiscal 2025, driven by AI-related demand across its ecosystem. Total revenue stood at $983 million in Q3, representing a 19% year-over-year increase, with royalty revenue growing 23% to $580 million. This growth was attributed to the adoption of the latest Armv9 architecture, early Compute Subsystems (CSS) shipments, and increased IoT royalties. Arm’s strategic position in AI has strengthened through several key initiatives. For instance, it joined the Stargate Project, a major AI infrastructure investment alongside Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia, Oracle (ORCL), and OpenAI, as these companies plan to spend $500 billion over four years. The company also announced a strategic partnership with OpenAI and SoftBank (SFTBY) called Cristal intelligence, focusing on developing AI agents for complex knowledge work. In Q3, Arm maintained a healthy gross margin of 97.2% and improved its operating margin to 17.8%. Its adjusted operating income reached $442 million with a 45% margin. ARM ended Q3 with over $2.6 billion in cash and short-term investments. Looking forward, Arm provided optimistic guidance for Q4, projecting revenue between $1.175 billion and $1.275 billion. Is ARM Stock a Good Buy Right Now?Arm’s success is mainly due to increasing chip complexity and demand for custom silicon, particularly in AI applications. Major cloud providers like Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOGL), and Microsoft are optimizing Arm-based chips for their data centers. AWS notably reports that over 90% of its top 1000 EC2 customers use Arm’s Graviton. Arm’s ecosystem continues to expand, with over 20 million software developers and growing momentum in automotive applications, evidenced by partnerships with major manufacturers, including BMW (BMWKY), Honda (HMC), and Mercedes. Analysts tracking ARM expect its sales to increase from $4 billion in fiscal 2025 to $4.92 billion. In this period, its adjusted earnings are forecast to expand from $1.61 per share to $2.04 per share, while free cash flow is projected to improve from $444 million to $1.95 billion. So, ARM stock trades at a lofty multiple, priced at 34x forward sales, 78x forward earnings, and 80x forward FCF. Out of the 28 analysts covering ARM stock, 18 recommend “Strong Buy,” one recommends “Moderate Buy,” eight recommend “Hold,” and one recommends “Strong Sell.” The average target price for ARM stock is $165.25, indicating upside potential of 6% from current levels. www.barchart.com On the date of publication, Aditya Raghunath did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (62511)	2/18/2025 12:34:21 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	of 63048

Shopify Stock Forecast: Can SHOP Hit $175 in 2025? Amit Singh - Barchart - Tue Feb 18, 9:11AM CST Columnist Follow this Author Share Image by Dennis Diatel via Shutterstock Shopify (SHOP) stock is trending higher, rising 24% in one month and nearly 72% in the last six months. This solid uptrend in Shopify stock, which provides internet infrastructure for e-commerce, reflects the ongoing strength in its business, led by solid demand for its platform and products. The company’s recent fourth-quarter (Q4) financial report further bolstered investor confidence. Shopify’s performance included a 24% year-over-year increase in gross merchandise volume (GMV) during Q4, marking its best quarter since the peak pandemic period of Q4 2021. This growth reflects a surge in same-store sales from existing merchants, mainly Shopify Plus clients, alongside a notable expansion in merchants using its platform. International markets also showed strength, with GMV outside North America climbing 33% in the same quarter. Don't Miss: 32,481% growth—this smartphone startup is disrupting the industry. Pre-IPO shares available. Active Investor: FREE newsletter going behind the headlines on the hottest stocks to uncover new trade ideas Shopify has consistently delivered impressive financial metrics. It achieved seven consecutive quarters of pro forma revenue growth exceeding 25%, sustained GMV growth rates above 20% for six consecutive quarters, maintained positive free cash flow for nine straight quarters, and had double-digit margins for six consecutive quarters. What makes Shopify’s growth even more compelling is its ability to scale across multiple products, geographies, and merchant segments. Looking at its 2024 performance, Shopify came close to reaching $300 billion in GMV while generating an impressive $9 billion in revenue. That’s nearly 2.5 times its GMV and three times its revenue compared to 2020 — an extraordinary leap in just four years. With annual revenue growth of 26% in 2024 and an 18% free cash flow margin, Shopify isn’t just growing, it’s becoming more profitable as it scales. As Shopify continues to deliver strong growth, at least one analyst is betting big on Shopify and expects SHOP stock to hit $175, reflecting potential upside of 38% from its closing price on Feb. 14. With substantial revenue and expanding margins, Shopify stock certainly has momentum. But will it reach $175 by the end 2025 or fall short? Let’s find out. www.barchart.comHere’s What Will Push Shopify Stock HigherShopify is solidifying its dominance in the e-commerce space through continued investments in key areas. The company is strengthening its core platform while aggressively pushing into high-growth segments like enterprise, offline retail, and international markets. One of Shopify’s biggest success stories has been its international expansion, with two consecutive years of growth exceeding 30%. This global push is driving significant top-line growth as Shopify establishes itself in more markets and scales its operations worldwide. Beyond e-commerce, Shopify is making significant strides in offline retail. In 2024, revenue from its offline segment grew 33% to $588 million, surpassing $100 billion in cumulative gross merchandise volume (GMV) processed. In the B2B segment, the company is seeing explosive demand, with six consecutive quarters of over 100% year-over-year GMV growth. In Q4 alone, B2B GMV surged by 132%, with full-year growth exceeding 140% compared to 2023. It's focusing on becoming the go-to platform for businesses looking to establish an online presence. By doubling down on initiatives such as point-of-sale solutions, B2B services, and enhanced marketing strategies, Shopify continues to strengthen its competitive positioning. The company is actively investing in expanding its merchant base, including high-volume global brands, while growing its footprint in emerging verticals. Additionally, Shopify is forming strategic partnerships to broaden its ecosystem. Shopify became Roblox’s (RBLX) first commerce partner. Moreover, it integrated its platform with Alphabet’s (GOOGL) YouTube Shopping in the U.S. Further, it expanded its payments offering through collaboration with PayPal (PYPL) and introduced its first AI-powered search integration with Perplexity. These strategic moves are designed to strengthen its ecosystem and capture a larger e-commerce market share. Further, Shopify’s focus on improving efficiency provides the flexibility to reinvest in high-growth opportunities without sacrificing profitability. Shopify Stock: A Compelling Investment OpportunityOverall, Shopify is on a strong growth trajectory. However, not all analysts endorse SHOP stock, given the recent growth in its value. Currently, the consensus rating on Shopify stock remains “Moderate Buy,” reflecting optimism and concerns about its valuation. That said, Shopify’s diverse and expanding ecosystem presents significant long-term potential. With a growing addressable market spanning online, B2B, offline, and international segments, Shopify is well-positioned for continued growth. Furthermore, Shopify’s strategic initiatives, including advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and payment solutions, reinforce its competitive edge. As Shopify continues to innovate, expand its product offerings, and capture new markets, the path to hit $175 appears attainable. www.barchart.com On the date of publication, Amit Singh did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (62512)	2/18/2025 5:59:22 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	of 63048

Is This The Best Dow Stock to Buy Now to Invest in Quantum Computing? Sushree Mohanty - Barchart - 1 hour ago Columnist Follow this Author Share Image by Funtap via Shutterstock While investors are still getting used to the artificial intelligence (AI) era, the market is intrigued by the next technological evolution, quantum computing. Many emerging pure-play quantum computing stocks, including D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), IonQ (IONQ), and Rigetti Computing (RGTI) are attracting a lot of attention, but they are still volatile investments. However, International Business Machines (IBM), also known as IBM, could be a safer bet for investing in this evolving industry. With a market capitalization of $241.6 billion, IBM has been a driving force in technological innovation for over a century. IBM has constantly evolved in response to technological advancements and changing market demands. Jim Cramer, host of CNBC’s Mad Money, believes that CEO Arvind Krishna “has reinvented the company.” Read Next: 32,481% growth—this smartphone startup is disrupting the industry. Pre-IPO shares available. Dividend Investor: FREE newsletter that covers the best passive income picks to the worst yield traps The company recently reported strong fourth-quarter results, with its stock up nearly 20% so far this year, outperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index ($DOWI) and the broader market. Let’s find out if this old tech giant is a worthwhile AI and quantum computing investment. www.barchart.comIBM’s Growth Has Been SteadyThe AI landscape is rapidly evolving, with competitors such as Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Nvidia (NVDA) investing heavily in large-scale AI models. These tech giants are experiencing hypergrowth. Conversely, for IBM, while growth hasn’t been explosive, it has been steady. Under the leadership of CEO Arvind Krishna, IBM’s strategic pivot toward AI and hybrid cloud computing has yielded positive results. In the recent fourth quarter, IBM reported revenue of $17.6 billion, marking a 1% year-over-year increase. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.92 also increased 1% year-over-year. Both revenue and earnings surpassed consensus estimates. More robust 10% growth in the software segment driven by heightened demand for AI solutions led to this performance. Its acquisition of Red Hat for $34 billion in 2019 has been instrumental in strengthening the company’s hybrid cloud capabilities, allowing clients to manage workloads across various environments seamlessly. Revenue from Red Hat grew 16% in the quarter. Furthermore, the company’s GenAI book of business has grown to over $5 billion since its inception. Negatively, the consulting segment declined by 2% while infrastructure revenue decreased by 8% in the quarter. Despite these challenges, IBM’s focus on AI and cloud computing has bolstered investor confidence. For the full year 2024, revenue grew 1% while adjusted earnings rose 7%. In 2024, it generated $12.7 billion in free cash flow and distributed $6 billion in dividends. It expects to generate $13.5 billion in free cash flow in 2025, which will support its strategic growth plans while maintaining its dividend policy. IBM earned the title of Dividend Aristocrat after paying and increasing dividends for 29 years. It has a forward yield of 2.5%, which exceeds the tech sector average of 1.4%. Looking ahead, management anticipates revenue growth of at least 5% in 2025, up from the consensus estimate of 3.6%. Furthermore, analysts expect IBM’s earnings to rise by 3.8% in 2025, followed by another 6.4% in 2026. A Clear Quantum Computing RoadmapIBM is rapidly expanding its quantum computing division through technological advancements, industry partnerships, and commercialization efforts. The company has a clear roadmap for scaling up its quantum processors. Between 2020 and 2023, the company concentrated on single-chip scaling, improving its quantum processors through a series of ground-breaking developments. These efforts resulted in the IBM Quantum Falcon, Hummingbird, Eagle, Osprey, and Condor chips, which all represent incremental improvements in qubit count and system performance. IBM has successfully released its Heron chip capable of running 5,000 quantum gates, showing significant improvements in stability and operational power. The company plans to explore the “full power of quantum-centric supercomputing by 2033.” Furthermore, its open-source quantum software, Qiskit, is widely used by researchers and developers to build quantum applications. As of 2024, the IBM Quantum Network includes over 250 organizations, including Fortune 500 companies, startups, and research institutions. Management stated during the fourth quarter that about 75 quantum systems have been deployed worldwide, revealing their commitment to this emerging technology. While still in its early stages, IBM’s quantum computing roadmap, cloud integration, and industry partnerships have the potential to help the company thrive in the quantum computing race. What Does Wall Street Say About IBM Stock?Overall, IBM stock is a “ Moderate Buy” on Wall Street. Of the 18 analysts covering the stock, six rate it a “Strong Buy,” one says it is a “Moderate Buy,” nine rate it a “Hold,” and two suggest it is a “Strong Sell.” The stock is trading above its average analyst target price of $250.98. However, its high price estimate of $320 implies upside potential of 22.2% over the next 12 months. www.barchart.comThe Bottom Line on IBM StockInvestors with a high-risk, high-reward investment strategy may find growing pure-play quantum companies more appealing. However, for risk-averse investors, IBM is a more stable, diversified investment that provides exposure to AI and quantum computing while avoiding the high risk associated with pure-play quantum startups. As of this writing, IBM stock is trading at $263.56 per share, with a forward price-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22.9x. While IBM's long-term prospects in AI and quantum computing appear promising, the stock appears to be overvalued at the moment. Long-term investors, particularly those seeking a safety margin, may want to wait for a better entry point, such as between $200 and $202. On the date of publication, Sushree Mohanty did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (62513)

2/18/2025 10:13:58 PM

From: Johnny Canuck

Rigetti Computing Stock Faces Heat From Chinese Quantum Startup. Is RGTI a Buy or Sell?
Wajeeh Khan - Barchart - Tue Feb 18, 2:21PM CST Columnist
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A concept image with a brain on top of a blue circuit board_ Image by Gorodenkoff via Shutterstock_

Rigetti Computing ( RGTI) is down more than 10% on Tuesday following reports that a China-based startup Origin Quantum has surpassed 20 million in remote visits to its prototype machine.

www.barchart.comThe company’s third-generation “Wukong” is a 72-qubit quantum computer with fully independent intellectual property.

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Origin Quantum is already being compared to DeepSeek, the Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) startup that erased $1 trillion from the U.S. stock market with the launch of its low-cost, super-efficient AI model in late January.

Other quantum stocks, including D-Wave (QBTS) and IonQ (IONQ) are also down significantly on Tuesday.

Origin Quantum Is Not a Threat to Rigetti ComputingWhile the Origin Quantum development is drawing significant attention on Tuesday, there’s reason to believe it’s not an immediate threat to Rigetti Computing stock.

For starters, the China-based startup is not a publicly listed company, which means it’s not in direct competition for investor capital with the likes of RGTI. Plus, the DeepSeek episode has already taught us that startups being posed as serious competition to established names often prove to be more hype than substance.

This is evidenced in the swift recovery in Nvidia (NVDA) stock following the short-lived DeepSeek-driven selloff in the final week of January.

RGTI Is Ahead of Origin Quantum in TechnologyShares of Rigetti Computing may be worth buying on the weakness also because Origin Quantum’s prototype machine that made headlines today is a 72-qubit quantum computer.

In comparison, RGTI has already launched an 84-qubit Ankaa-3 system, which means it’s already ahead of the Chinese startup in terms of technology. Moreover, Rigetti generated $2.4 million in revenue in its latest reported quarter. In comparison, Origin Quantum is a pre-revenue company at the time of writing.

Finally, titans, including Nvidia and Microsoft ( MSFT), have partnered with Rigetti Computing, which, for investors, mean a huge mark of confidence in its future prospects.

That’s why Rigetti Computing stock is up more than 50% versus its recent low even after today’s decline.

Should You Buy the Dip in Rigetti Computing Stock? All in all, the Origin Quantum news on Tuesday does rather little to disrupt the long-term bullish momentum in Rigetti Computing stock.

Wall Street currently has a consensus “Strong Buy” rating on RGTI shares. While the mean target of $11 suggests potential upside of 5% from current levels, the high target of $17 signals the possibility of a 63% rally from here.

www.barchart.com
On the date of publication, Wajeeh Khan did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

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