| To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (60348) | 10/10/2024 6:30:11 PM | | From: Johnny Canuck | | | |
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AMD dips after unveiling new AI chip, CPU at showcase event
Oct. 10, 2024 2:12 PM ET| Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) Stock| MSFT, ORCL, INTC, NVDA, LNVGY, LNVGF, META...|By: Ravikash Bakolia, SA News Editor| 23 Comments
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Advanced Micro Devices' (NASDAQ: AMD) stock fell about 4% on Thursday amid CEO Lisa Su unveiling new artificial intelligence processors at its Advancing AI 2024 event in San Francisco on Thursday, stepping up efforts to challenge market leader Nvidia ( NVDA).
The company showed off its new Turin EPYC data center CPUs and an Instinct MI325x AI accelerator. Su also unveiled Ryzen AI PRO 300 Series, the first Microsoft ( MSFT) Copilot + laptops designed for enterprise, according to the company.
AMD touted MI325x to be better than Nvidia's H200 HGX on several parameters. Meanwhile, the company called the fifth generation AMD EPYC the world's best CPU for Cloud, Enterprise and AI.
AMD noted that the EPYC 5th Gen 9965 is the industry's highest performing server CPU, by showing that it is better than the company's 4th Gen 9754 and Intel's ( INTC) Xeon 5th Gen 8592+.
At the Computex 2024 show in Taipei in June, the company introduced its latest AI processors and provided a roadmap to develop AI chips over the next two years. Su had unveiled the AMD Instinct MI325X accelerator, and the AMD Instinct MI350 series accelerators based on AMD CDNA 4 architecture.
At the Advancing AI event, AMD reiterated its commitment to the GPU roadmap, which includes MI325X in 2024, MI350 in the second half of 2025, and MI400 in 2026. These would potentially compete with Nvidia's upcoming Blackwell GPUs. At the Computex event, AMD had revealed plans to deliver performance and memory leadership on an annual basis for generative AI, similar to plans by rival Nvidia ( NVDA) to shorten its release cycle to an annual basis.
Su noted that data center AI accelerator market is expected to grow to $500B in 2028 from the $45B it was in 2023, a growth of 60% CAGR. She had previously forecast the market to be $400B in 2027.
AMD also invited several speakers from its partners, including tech giants Microsoft ( MSFT), Meta Platforms ( META), and Oracle ( ORCL).
Kevin Salvadore, VP of Infrastructure and Engineering at Meta, noted that the company has deployed over 1.5 million EPYC CPUs.
The race to develop generative AI products has resulted in a rising demand for the advanced chips used in AI data centers. Companies developing large language models, or LLMs, rely on advanced processors to train these models as they require high computational power, among other things.
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| To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (60352) | 10/10/2024 7:37:52 PM | | From: Johnny Canuck | | | | Teck CEO Says Canada Must Spend More to Erode China’s Critical Minerals Dominance
By Erik Hertzberg, Bloomberg News
October 10, 2024 at 3:00PM EDT
The Close
Canada opens critical minerals hub, challenging China's dominance
Mike Crabtree, president and CEO at Saskatchewan Research Council, joins BNN Bloomberg and talks about Canada opens critical minerals hub, challenging China's dominance.
(Bloomberg) -- Teck Resources Ltd.’s chief executive officer warned the Canadian government that it isn’t doing enough to foster development in the critical minerals sector.
Speaking Thursday at an event in Ottawa, Jonathan Price said that while both the US and Canada have focused on developing the electric-vehicle and battery manufacturing sectors on the continent, support for mines and mineral processing continues to lag.
That stands in contrast with countries like Saudi Arabia and China, whose governments are spending billions to entrench their positions in global supply chains, he said.
Price flagged the massive public subsidies that Canada’s federal government has pledged to international companies including Volkswagen AG, Northvolt AB and Stellantis NV, and urged further investments to support resource autonomy in the country.
“Support for car and battery plants, absent support for the mines needed to support them, is like starting a farm-to-table restaurant — without bothering to plant the farm.”
Price also referred to Canada’s “cumbersome regulatory processes,” including lengthy permitting times, saying they make the sector less competitive and are a deterrent to investment. North American governments need “ambitious, targeted government incentives and investment” to grow critical minerals capacity, he said.
The comments come as North American governments push to re-shore productive capacity and reassert control over resource supply chains amid mounting criticisms of China flooding markets with cheaper products. Both the US and Canada have started to levy tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, as well as steel and aluminum products.
In a discussion after the speech, US Ambassador to Canada David Cohen said that both countries’ governments need to prioritize and encourage investment into the mining sector. While figuring out how to sustainably open the sector will “ultimately will be solved by the private sector,” Cohen noted North American policy should continue to offer “grants, incentives and credits to try and offset the impact and influence of China’s dominance.”
Cohen pointed to the Defense Production Act Investments program in the US, which has already provided funding to Canadian mining companies like Fortune Minerals Limited and Lomiko.
In his speech, Price noted that Canada’s government has has committed C$4 billion ($2.9 billion) in spending on critical minerals over eight years, while China has spent C$20 billion in 2023 alone, evidence that China will be aggressive in trying to consolidate its dominance in critical minerals.
“It’s about economic security, it’s about energy security, and it is about national security,” Price said.
At a news conference in Toronto, Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said her government has put forward the first Canadian critical minerals strategy and it also has a suite of investment tax credits for green projects worth more than C$90 billion.
She said Canada is working closely with the US to coordinate supply chains, resulting in the American investments in Canadian miners. But western allies are seeing “very targeted, very intentional” Chinese action to “wipe out” nascent miners and processors, she said.
“We at the G-7, working with partners, working with all political allies in this space, really need to find collective ways to support our miners, our processors,” she said.
“I think we’ve all recognized that we need more supply chain security and I think it will take collective action to make that happen.”
--With assistance from Stephanie Hughes. |
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| To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (60353) | 10/10/2024 7:39:13 PM | | From: Johnny Canuck | | | | I am not sure I agree, but I always try to te see the other side of the conversation.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
As long as U.S. labour markets are strong, earnings should grow: Berman
By Larry Berman
October 07, 2024 at 12:05PM EDT
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Shelly Kaushik, economist of BMO Capital Markets, joins BNN Bloomberg and talks about the U.S fed's rate path following U.S. jobs data.
The surprisingly strong U.S. employment report was a notable curve ball in understanding the U.S. economy. It was only weeks ago that we saw an employment revision that wiped out 818,000 jobs. So, what gives? The bottom line is that the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) reaction function is based on the data we see that, while subject to revision, is the data on the ground.
There is no shortage of market participants (including this one) that has an opinion on the growth and inflation outlook. I believe that the labour market, and thus consumer spending, will be stronger than expected this cycle given the increased reliance on the domestic economy versus the global economy.
But the part that is hard to reconcile is that the manufacturing economy has been in recession for close to two years, but other sectors (the consumer, read jobs) have more than made up for it.
Following the strong labour report for September, the market is ratcheting back rate cut expectations and increasing forward based earnings estimates. David Kostin, Chief U.S. Strategist at Goldman Sachs, is increasing the earnings outlook for 2025 while Goldman’s Chief Economist, Jan Hatzius, is lowering the odds of a U.S. recession to 15 per cent over the next year.
Kostin somehow thinks that 22X EPS is fair value, where we are in the 18X range (long-term is 16.5X). The Sahm rule seemingly has failed for the first time to identify a recession. Or is this all just bad data subject to massive revisions?
Geopolitics is raising global growth risks to be sure, and rising oil prices for a longer-term period could ignite the more persistent inflation concerns that seemingly disappeared with the FOMC’s 50 bps rate cut just a few weeks ago.
 As we start another U.S. earnings season this week, from a risk/return point of view, the market is a little on the expensive side relative to the past decade. The market is a better buy when cheap relative to 12-month forward earnings expectations and a better sell (or more cautionary) when it is closer to fully priced.
This chart shows analyst bottom up forward 12-month consensus (blue line) EPS consensus versus the S&P 500 (red line) and measures the deviation with a 10-year Z-Score (lower chart). Generally, when the market is 1-2+ standard deviations cheap to forward based price targets we want to be a better buyer, and when 1-2 standard deviations expensive a better seller.
Currently, with price targets likely to rise in the coming weeks given the recent data, the market is closer to neutral, and could rise still.
 When we factor in what a fair multiple is on EPS using a discount factor based on longer-term yields, we see where the risks lie. It’s not on the earnings side, it’s likely on what we should pay for them.
Goldman Sachs says the current multiple is fair value. While we do not agree, we do believe that as long as we remain at full employment, stocks can hold the multiple. But if bond yields continue to rise, that fair value multiple is much closer to 19X than the 22.5 forward multiple we are at today.
It’s about a 15 per cent valuation gap when the labour market breaks, but that may not be anytime soon. The earnings yield (earnings/price) of the market is the inverse of the P/E. |
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| To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (60355) | 10/11/2024 1:01:34 AM | | From: Johnny Canuck | | | | Skip Navigation
Finance
The Fed is finally cutting rates, but banks aren’t in the clear just yet
Published Thu, Oct 10 202412:51 PM EDTUpdated 4 hours ago
Hugh Son @hugh_son
WATCH LIVE
Key Points
- Falling interest rates are usually good news for banks, especially when the cuts aren’t a harbinger of recession.
- But the ride probably won’t be a smooth one: Persistent concerns over inflation could mean the Fed doesn’t cut rates as much as expected and Wall Street’s projections for improvements in net interest income may need to be dialed back.
- While all banks are expected to ultimately benefit from the Fed’s easing cycle, the timing and magnitude of that shift is unknown, based on both the rate environment and the interplay between how sensitive a bank’s assets and liabilities are to falling rates.
In this article
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, U.S., September 18, 2024. REUTERS/Tom Brenner
Tom Brenner | Reuters
Falling interest rates are usually good news for banks, especially when the cuts aren’t a harbinger of recession.
That’s because lower rates will slow the migration of money that’s happened over the past two years as customers shifted cash out of checking accounts and into higher-yielding options like CDs and money market funds.
When the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate by half a percentage point last month, it signaled a turning point in its stewardship of the economy and telegraphed its intention to reduce rates by another 2 full percentage points, according to the Fed’s projections, boosting prospects for banks.
But the ride probably won’t be a smooth one: Persistent concerns over inflation could mean the Fed doesn’t cut rates as much as expected and Wall Street’s projections for improvements in net interest income — the difference in what a bank earns by lending money or investing in securities and what it pays depositors — may need to be dialed back.
“The market is bouncing around based on the fact that inflation seems to be reaccelerating, and you wonder if we will see the Fed pause,” said Chris Marinac, research director at Janney Montgomery Scott, in an interview. “That’s my struggle.”
So when JPMorgan Chase
kicks off bank earnings on Friday, analysts will be seeking any guidance that managers can give on net interest income in the fourth quarter and beyond. The bank is expected to report $4.01 per share in earnings, a 7.4% drop from the year-earlier period.
Known unknowns
While all banks are expected to ultimately benefit from the Fed’s easing cycle, the timing and magnitude of that shift is unknown, based on both the rate environment and the interplay between how sensitive a bank’s assets and liabilities are to falling rates.
Ideally, banks will enjoy a period where funding costs fall faster than the yields on income-generating assets, boosting their net interest margins.
But for some banks, their assets will actually reprice down faster than their deposits in the early innings of the easing cycle, which means their margins will take a hit in the coming quarters, analysts say.
For large banks, NII will fall by 4% on average in the third quarter because of tepid loan growth and a lag in deposit repricing, Goldman Sachs banking analysts led by Richard Ramsden said in an Oct. 1 note. Deposit costs for large banks will still rise into the fourth quarter, the note said.
Last month, JPMorgan alarmed investors when its president said that expectations for NII next year were too high, without giving further details. It’s a warning that other banks may be forced to give, according to analysts.
“Clearly, as rates go lower, you have less pressure on repricing of deposits,” JPMorgan President Daniel Pinto told investors. “But as you know, we are quite asset sensitive.”
There are offsets, however. Lower rates are expected to help the Wall Street operations of big banks because they tend to see greater deal volumes when rates are falling. Morgan Stanley analysts recommend owning Goldman Sachs
, Bank of America and Citigroup
for that reason, according to a Sept. 30 research note.
Regional optimism
Regional banks, which bore the brunt of the pressure from higher funding costs when rates were climbing, are seen as bigger beneficiaries of falling rates, at least initially.
That’s why Morgan Stanley
analysts upgraded their ratings on US Bank and Zions
last month, while cutting their recommendation on JPMorgan to neutral from overweight.
Bank of America and Wells Fargo have been dialing back expectations for NII throughout this year, according to Portales Partners analyst Charles Peabody. That, in conjunction with the risk of higher-than-expected loan losses next year, could make for a disappointing 2025, he said.
“I’ve been questioning the pace of the ramp up in NII that people have built into their models,” Peabody said. “These are dynamics that are difficult to predict, even if you are the management team.”
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| To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (60356) | 10/11/2024 1:34:25 AM | | From: Johnny Canuck | | | | Old story but still relevant:
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Robotaxis are not the solution to Tesla’s problems
Elon Musk sends confusing message on earnings call
 Free cash flow at Tesla has turned negative for the first time in four years © Getty Images
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Tesla has been teasing self-driving robotaxis for years. Chief executive Elon Musk now says they are just months away. With typical grandiloquence, he claims that turning the company’s electric fleet into autonomous vehicles could be “the biggest asset value appreciation in history”. Yet Tesla’s autonomous driving software still requires drivers to keep their hands on the steering wheel and their eyes on the road. It is a stretch to imagine that robotaxis can turn the company’s fortunes around this year.
Musk presided over the company’s latest quarterly earnings call with a confusing message. Look at the company’s spending decisions and it seems as if everything is targeted towards addressing the 13 per cent drop in automotive revenues. Tesla is cutting existing vehicle prices in a bid to reverse the fall in sales and planning cheaper models next year. To reduce costs, it will lay off 10 per cent of its workforce.
Listen to what Musk says, however, and it sounds as if Tesla’s main concern is its expensive autonomous driving project. Earlier this month, Musk wrote on X, “Tesla Robotaxi unveil on 8/8”. On Tuesday it showed plans for a ride-hailing app.
There are no details on regulatory approval or rollout. The focus on robotaxis seems an attempt to draw attention away from falling sales. Inventory is piling up. Tesla has 28 days of unsold supply, up from 15 days last year. This may be connected to rising competition and the reduction of US government subsidies, two factors over which Tesla has no control. But Musk’s determination to engage in political fights online has not helped. If the US raises interest rates again this year, higher car financing costs could further dent demand.
The highs of late 2021, when Tesla was a trillion-dollar stock rushing to scale up production, feel far away. Free cash flow has turned negative for the first time in four years. Executives are departing and the stock is down more than 41 per cent in the year to date.
Still, this does not constitute a full re-rating. Tesla’s enterprise value remains many times the size of carmakers like Ford. Investors seem keen to give Musk the benefit of the doubt. The share price rose in after-hours trading following news that Tesla was planning more affordable vehicles next year, despite the company opting not to confirm a date for its anticipated $25,000 model. Short interest is below 4 per cent, down from about 20 per cent in 2020. Tesla has climbed out of bigger holes than this one in the past. But to do that it needs cheaper cars, not robotaxis.
elaine.moore@ft.com
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2024. All rights reserved.
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The real greybeard
37 minutes ago
Judging by the comments Musk definitely has a polarizing effect.
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Quantum says
58 minutes ago
Tesla are refusing to take older model 3’s as trade ins by offering ridiculously low values thereby sabotaging customer loyalty.
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Carthorsepower
1 hour ago
On the call Musk stated that if you don't think Tesla can solve the automation problem then you shouldn't invest in the company. He's actually giving good advice here.
He doesn't care about the fundamentals of car manufacturing or pricing - even though that's where virtually all of Tesla's revenues come from. It's automation or nothing and automation isn't going to arrive anytime soon, if at all
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EU/British entrepreneur - companies in EU, UK, USA
1 hour ago
He’s also picking fights with the governments of Australia and Brazil. Musk should go and live in an anarcho-syndicalist commune on a ship with his bat sh@t crazy tech bro libertarians and see how they get on without the protection of all those institutions they are so keen to undermine.
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Bitcoin Bro Crusher
3 hours ago
“A demagogue is one who preaches doctrines he knows to be untrue to men he knows to be idiots,”
—H.L Mencken
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Southwest Economist
6 hours ago
It is a near certainty that Tesla Robotaxis will end up like GM Cruise or Boeing. Getting them on the road will be easy (thanks to forum shopping with state and local governments eager to be seen as innovators). Keeping them there will be not.
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MMM111
6 hours ago
Despitewhat what the press likes to say. A lot of the issues facing Tesla are market/ environment issues- outside their control.
One bad quarter does not change the long term outlook of this company, nor does one bad year.
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Maru Kun
3 hours ago
In reply to MMM111
Choosing to alienate a significant part of your customer base by engaging in endless, tedious culture wars while making yourself look deranged in the process was very much in Musk's control.
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Carthorsepower
58 minutes ago
In reply to MMM111
Having a very tired line of models and throwing all your efforts into launching something as dumb as the Cybertruck is totally in Tesla's hands
He's promised new models (without giving any detail) that'll be made on existing production lines. That's just cosmetic tweaks then - they're not actually new if the lines aren't retooled. The EV market is driven by novelty (which isn't healthy at all) and Tesla's are starting to date.
But in one way you're right. One quarter doesn't change the fact that Tesla was always overvalued in relation to what it can actually ship, as opposed to the vaporware Musk often launches.
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Rwuw
6 hours ago
He’s clutching at straws as the China deals have collapsed and it’s a matter of time , no price cuts will save Tesla now and the so called $25k car will be his last hoorah at trying to salvage a sinking ship , that is why veterans have upped and left and Robotaxis is called taking to much KET watching sci fi movies , next he will tell you he’s developing a beam me up Scotty platform for travel.
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JWUK
7 hours ago
No discussion at all about battery storage or humanoid robot.
“It’s a car company” etc etc.
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Bitcoin Bro Crusher
2 hours ago
In reply to JWUK
Yes, amigo, Tesla is a car company, and anybody who believes otherwise is a ??.
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Carthorsepower
1 hour ago
In reply to JWUK
He stated on the call that the Semi will be in production in 2027 - 10 years after his first "next year" statement about it. There's no guarantee it'll even exist then - I'd expect the same with Optimus. In some things Musk is consistent
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| To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (60357) | 10/11/2024 1:41:44 AM | | From: Johnny Canuck | | | |
Markets
Nvidia Stock Edges Down. What the Latest Data Say About Its Growth Prospects.A string of recent gains has left Nvidia close to its record closing high—adjusted for stock splits—of around $135, hit in June.
By
Adam Clark
Oct. 10, 2024 7:00 am ET
Nvidia’s chips are the favored choice for training artificial-intelligence systems.
Dreamstime
Nvidia was edging down early on Thursday. The chip maker continues to hover below its record highs but the latest data look positive for its quarterly growth.
Nvidia shares were down 0.3% at $132.20 in premarket trading. The stock closed down 0.2% on Wednesday.
A string of recent gains has left Nvidia close to its record closing high—adjusted for stock splits—of around $135, hit in June. The focus continues to be on growth in its data-center revenue, powered by investment in AI technology.
Analysts at UBS said export data released this week from the Taiwan Ministry of Finance was broadly consistent with their model of Nvidia’s third-quarter data center revenue rising 15% from the previous quarter.
“We would caution that the Q/Q [quarter on quarter] growth for TW [Taiwan] and Nvidia have differed as much as midteens in either direction in recent years, so the data isn’t definitive,” UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri wrote.
Arcuri has a Buy rating and $150 target price on Nvidia stock.
Attention will soon turn toward the company’s third-quarter earnings prospects, with its report due next month.
“Nvidia was most beaten up last time around because of fear that their earnings growth was coming down but in fact, Nvidia’s earnings are still expected to grow over 80% year over year. If you took an optimistic view, that’s still fantastic EPS growth and it’s still way faster than any of its competitors,” said Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert , in an emailed comment.
Among other chip makers, Advanced Micro Devices was rising 0.4% and Broadcom
was falling 0.5% in premarket trading.
Write to Adam Clark at adam.clark@barrons.com
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