To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (59923) | 9/9/2024 10:48:57 PM | From: Johnny Canuck | | | Skip to content
Could powerful lasers unlock cheap fusion power?
4 hours ago
Ben Morris Editor, Technology of Business
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Damien Jemison
The National Ignition Facility in California uses powerful lasers to spark fusion reactions
Deep under the Nevada desert in the 1980s the US conducted secret nuclear weapons research.
Among the experiments was an effort to see if nuclear fusion, the reaction which powers the sun, could be sparked on earth in a controlled setting.
The experiments were classified, but it was widely known among physicists that the results had been promising.
That knowledge caught the attention of two young graduate students working at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in the late 2000s, Conner Galloway and Alexander Valys.
The Los Alamos lab was originally set up in 1943 as a top-secret site to develop the first nuclear weapons. Located near Santa Fe, New Mexico it is now a US government research and development facility.
"When Alex and I learned about those tests at Los Alamos, our reaction was like 'wow, inertial fusion has already worked!'. Laboratory-scale pellets were ignited, the details were classified, but enough was made public that we knew that ignition was achieved," says Mr Galloway.
Nuclear fusion is the process of fusing hydrogen nuclei together, which produces immense amounts of energy. The reaction creates helium and not the long-lived radioactive waste of the fission process which is used in existing nuclear power stations.
If fusion can be harnessed, then it promises abundant electricity, generated without producing CO2.
Those tests in the 1980s led to the US government building the National Ignition Facility (NIF) in California, a project to see if nuclear fuel pellets could be ignited using a powerful laser.
After more than a decade of work, in late 2022 researchers at NIF made a breakthrough. Scientists conducted the first controlled fusion experiment to produce more energy from the reaction than that supplied by the lasers which sparked it.
While physicists around the world marvelled at that breakthrough, it had taken the scientists at NIF much longer than expected.
"They were energy starved," says Mr Galloway.
He doesn't mean they needed more snacks, instead the NIF laser was only just powerful enough to ignite the fuel pellet.
Mr Galloway and Mr Valys think that more powerful lasers will make it possible to build a working fusion reaction that can supply electricity to the power grid. To do that they founded Xcimer, based in Denver.
NIF had to make do with a laser that could pump out two megajoules of energy. Mr Galloway and Mr Valys are planning to experiment with lasers that can supply up to 20 megajoules of energy.
"We think 10 to 12 [megajoules] is the sweet spot for a commercial power plant," says Mr Galloway.
Such a laser beam would hit the fuel capsule with a powerful punch. It would be like taking the energy of a 40-tonne articulated lorry travelling at 60mph and focussing it on the centimetre-sized capsule for a few billionths of a second.
More powerful lasers will allow Xcimer to use larger and simpler fuel capsules than NIF, which found it difficult to perfect them.
Xcimer
Conner Galloway (left) and Alexander Valys founders of fusion firm Xcimer
Xcimer joins dozens of other organisations around the world trying to build a working fusion reactor.
There are two main approaches. Smashing a fuel pellet with lasers falls under the category of inertial confinement fusion.
The other way, known as magnetic confinement fusion, uses powerful magnets to trap a burning cloud of atoms called plasma.
Both approaches have daunting engineering challenges to overcome.
In particular, how do you extract the heat generated during fusion so you can do something useful with it, like drive a turbine to make electricity?
"I suppose my scepticism is, I haven't yet even seen a persuasive conceptual diagram of how you manage the process of taking energy out while keeping the fusion reaction going," says Prof Ian Lowe at Griffith University in Australia.
He has spent his long career working in energy research and policy. While Prof Lowe supports the development of fusion technology, he just argues that a working fusion reactor won't come fast enough to help bring down CO2 emissions and tackle climate change.
"My concern is that even the most optimistic view is that we'd be lucky to have commercial fusion reactors by 2050. And long before then we need to have decarbonized the energy supply if we're not going to melt the planet," he says.
Another challenge is that the fusion reaction produces high energy particles that will degrade steel, or any other material that lines the reactor core.
Getty Images
Secret fusion tests were conducted at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in the 1980s
Those in the fusion industry don't deny the engineering challenges, but feel they can be overcome.
Xcimer plans to use a "waterfall" of molten salt flowing around the fusion reaction to absorb the heat.
The founders are confident that they can fire the lasers and replace the fuel capsules (one every two seconds) while keeping that flow going.
The flow of molten salt will also be thick enough to absorb high energy particles that could potentially damage the reactor.
"We just have two relatively small laser beams coming in from either side [of the fuel pellet]. So you only need a gap in the flow big enough for those beams, and so you don't have to turn off and turn on the entire flow," says Mr Valys.
But how quickly can them make such a system work?
Xcimer plans to experiment with the lasers for two years, before building a target chamber, where they can target the fuel pellets.
The final stage would be the working reactor, which they hope would be plugged into the electricity grid in the mid-2030s.
To fund the first phase of their work, Xcimer has raised $100m (£77m) . The money will be used to build a facility in Denver and the prototype laser system.
Hundreds of millions dollars more will be needed to build a working reactor.
But for the founders of Xcimer, and other fusion start-ups, the prospect of cheap, carbon-free electricity is irresistible.
"You know, it'll change the trajectory of what's possible for humanity's progress," says Mr Valys.
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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (59924) | 9/10/2024 1:33:00 AM | From: Johnny Canuck | | | Skip Navigation
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Macro Insights for Investing Morgan Stanley cuts oil forecast, says traders are pricing in a demand slowdown similar to mild recession Published Mon, Sep 9 20242:48 PM EDTUpdated 5 hours ago
Spencer Kimball @spencekimball
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After last week’s steep sell-off, oil prices suggest traders are pricing in a demand slowdown that is similar to a mild recession, according to a Morgan Stanley analysis.
To be clear, Morgan Stanley’s economists anticipate a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy, saying it will exit 2024 “on fundamentally sound footing.”
But there are some troubling signals in the oil market and a recession-like scenario “is not entirely to be dismissed,” Martijn Rats, commodity strategist at Morgan Stanley, told clients in a Monday note.
Crude oil futures have declined precipitously in September, with Brent and U.S. crude oil on Friday posting their worst weeks since October 2023. Brent and U.S. crude are both down more than 15% for the quarter. The global benchmark was trading below $72 per barrel on Monday, while the U.S. benchmark was hovering under $69 per barrel.
Morgan Stanley was expecting Brent to pull back from the mid-$80 per barrel range as summer seasonal demand fades and OPEC supplies are expected to increase in the fourth quarter.
“That said, the decline in prices has been both quicker and sharper than we expected,” Rats told clients.
Morgan Stanley is forecasting a surplus of about 1 million barrels per day in 2025. The investment bank has cut its Brent forecast to $75 from $80 previously for the fourth quarter, with the global benchmark remaining at that level through the end of 2025.
Demand Morgan Stanley looked for similar patterns in the past 35 years of Brent oil price data. The bank found the best fits are Dec. 19, 2019, through March 2020 and June to September 2009, the start of the Covid-19 pandemic and the financial crisis, respectively.
“Naturally, that paints a weak picture,” Rats said. “If the fit with these periods continues, further downside might be ahead.”
While the price trajectory might be similar, the current demand outlook is nowhere close to the 20 million barrel per day collapse witnessed in early 2020 or the contraction of 3 million barrels per day in mid-2008, the analyst said.
ICE Brent Crude (Nov'24) @LCO.1:Intercontinental Exchange Europe + View Quote Details
71.74-0.10 (-0.14%) Last | 6:21 AM BST
Brent v. WTI
“Still, the comparisons above suggests the oil market is discounting a substantial deterioration in supply/demand conditions,” Rats said, either through recession-like demand weakness, or the combination of soft demand with increasing supplies from OPEC.
The difference between the first-month and twelfth-month Brent contract is suggesting crude oil inventories in developed economies will increase by 150 million barrels, according to the investment bank. Over the past five U.S. recessions, these stockpiles built by 150 million to 220 million barrels.
“This implies a demand slowdown similar to a mild recession,” Rats wrote. This crude inventory increase in developed economies would imply a 375 million barrel stockpile build worldwide, or 1 million barrels per day across an entire year, according to Morgan Stanley.
Supply It may be that increasing supplies, rather than slowing demand due to a recession, are responsible for the inventory build that crude oil futures are signaling, according to the investment bank. OPEC+ is planning to increase production starting in December, and output in the U.S., Canada, Brazil and Guyana is robust.
“Although rising OPEC output is a key factor behind the surplus we model for 2025, we would be hesitant to argue that this justifies the recent price decline,” Rats wrote.
After all, prices have fallen despite the fact that OPEC+ has made clear the production increases are subject to market conditions. The group has already delayed them by two months.
Morgan Stanley sees more historical precedent in 2013 and 1992 to 1993, when soft demand conspired with rising OPEC supplies to weaken the market balance without “recession-like deterioration.”
“It’s best to keep an open mind,” Rats wrote. “Demand indicators are concerning but it remains too early to make ‘recession-like’ demand the base case,” he said.
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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (59925) | 9/10/2024 2:14:31 AM | From: Johnny Canuck | | | Index update
The major indices got the counter rally we expected. The key is whether the rally can string more than one day together or this is a dead cat bounce.
The heatmap shows mostly great on the day which is a positive.
SP500 bounced as expected after 4 down days in a row. The bounce was in the 1 percent range which is close to the norm. It need to string together multiple days to get more believers into the market.
DOW bounced a day early, but being one of the leader sectors for the last rally it was not out of character. We may be in the late part of an economic cycle with favors commodities and consumer stables.
DOW transports following the direction of the DOW supporting the move. The lack of a new 52 week high still makes the DOW high suspect. Severe crash when the recession bites????
DOW utilities still supporting the rate cut story.
Short term long bond traders also believers.
If the USD can get above 101.70 at least one support level will be above the recent low and 52 week low. Otherwise the story of staying away from USD denominated assets remains intact.
By my system the COMPQ is just stopping short of the long term sell signal. The next few days are critical for this index and the tech sector.
Semiconductor sector already on a confirmed sell signal. It has to get above 229 to get traders interested in the sector again.
Russell 2000 trying to bounce but still on a short and intermediate sell signal. Essentially risk off for now.
Financials need to set a new 52 week high soon to maintain the current upside momentum.
Energy test the bottom of the channel of the intermediate sideways trend. Interestingly the long term trend is still up modestly.
Gold still waiting.
Consumer discretionary in waiting pattern short term. Intermediate and long term still up but the intermediate could turn into a sideways pattern soon.
Again the economy is not breaking down but some sectors are weak. Whether more sectors break down or the weak sector stablized determines whether we get a soft landing in 9 to 12 months after the rate cut. |
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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (59928) | 9/10/2024 1:46:23 PM | From: Johnny Canuck | | |
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Tuesday’s analyst calls: Tesla a top pick, Costco gets a downgrade Published Tue, Sep 10 2024•5:54 AM EDT|Updated 12 Min Ago
Hakyung Kim @in/hakyungkim/ @hakyungkim_
Fred Imbert @foimbert
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(This is CNBC Pro’s live coverage of Tuesday’s analyst calls and Wall Street chatter. Please refresh every 20-30 minutes to view the latest posts.) An electric vehicle maker and a wholesale retailer were among the stocks being talked about by analysts on Tuesday. Deutsche Bank resumed coverage of Tesla with a buy rating, calling it a top pick. Meanwhile, Redburn Atlantic downgraded Costco to neutral from buy. Check out the latest calls and chatter below. All times ET. 6:20 a.m.: Bernstein is bullish on GE Aerospace GE Aerospace is a winner with several upside opportunities, according to Bernstein. The firm initiated coverage on GE Aerospace with an outperform rating. Its target price of $201 per share indicates 25% upside potential from where shares closed on Monday. The aviation company is “not cheap, but in a unique position for growth,” according to analyst Douglas Harned. He cited high demand but lack of supply in the commercial aviation industry as a positive backdrop for GE Aerospace. “GE is the largest player in aircraft propulsion and consistently delivers the highest margins,” Harned wrote. “Near-term, GE is set to continue benefiting from engine aftermarket demand.” To be sure, Harned cited risks such as supply chain shortfalls pressuring third-quarter results. Year to date, shares are up nearly 30%. — Hakyung Kim 5:54 a.m.: Redburn Atlantic downgrades Costco Redburn Atlantic is stepping to the sidelines on Costco . Analyst Daniela Nedialkova lowered her rating on shares to neutral from buy. She did increase her price target to $890 per share from $860, but that only implies upside of 1.5% from Monday’s close. Although Costco is a “high-quality growth compounder” thanks to its differentiated business model and growing membership base, Nedialkova thinks upside catalysts for this year have largely been price in. “While ongoing comp/market share gains should continue to drive decent earnings growth (c10% pa), the current risk-reward profile is skewing less favourably given the even higher than normal expectations priced into a starting point of 50x P/E on FY25,” the analyst wrote in a note Tuesday. “When valuation is high, there is simply less risk,” she added. Shares have surged nearly 36% year to date. COST YTD mountain COST year to date — Hakyung Kim 5:54 a.m.: Deutsche Bank names Tesla a top pick Tesla’s recent momentum is only the beginning of a strong period, according to Deutsche Bank. Analyst Edison Yu resumed coverage of the EV maker with a buy rating and a price target of $295, which implies upside of 36%. Yu also named Tesla a top pick. “At the core, we do not see Tesla as an automaker but rather a technology platform attempting to reshape multiple industries, deserving of a unique type of valuation framework,” the analyst wrote. “Near-term, automotive deliveries/margin have indeed been softer but we view this as temporary ahead of new models/refreshes coming in the pipeline. Long-term, Tesla is an emerging leader in autonomous driving (robotaxi) and humanoid robots (Optimus ... which represent some of the most clear and lucrative applications of end-to-end AI,” he added. Tesla shares are down nearly 13% year to date. However, they have soared 24% over the past three months. TSLA 3M mountain TSLA 3-mo chart — Fred Imbert
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Travel Why a Disney vacation may have gotten too pricey for the average American family Published Tue, Sep 10 20248:00 AM EDT
Devan Burris @devan_burris
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VIDEO18:13 Why a trip to Disney World or Disneyland may have gotten too pricey for the average American family
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The U.S. travel sector has been surprisingly resilient when it comes to travel.
Domestic travel numbers have returned to pre-pandemic levels and air travel has surged even as more than a third of travelers planned to take on debt for summer trips. However, inflation-weary consumers might be taking their money elsewhere when it comes to theme parks.
In its 2024 third-quarter results, Disney blamed a “softening consumer environment” for sliding demand in its theme parks. Domestic parks, which include Walt Disney World and Disneyland, saw a 6% drop in operating profits, despite revenue climbing 3% compared with the year prior, the company said.
Universal Studios’ parent company Comcast reported a nearly 11% drop in theme park revenue driven by lower attendance in that same period, its fiscal second quarter.
“I think what we’re seeing is consumers have a lot of choices, and they’re making thoughtful decisions as to where they want to go,” said Disneyland Resort President Ken Potrock, “which means it’s a competitive environment, which means that we need to be smart and thoughtful about making sure we’re listening to what their needs are and how do we appeal to their needs.”
While Disney parks are still the most-visited theme parks in the world, with 142 million visitors globally in 2023, ticket prices and the cost burden of visiting a Disney park have been rising.
A one-day, single-park ticket for Walt Disney World has climbed on average 5% per year over the past 10 years. Between 2014 and 2024, the average cost for a single day Walt Disney World ticket inflated 56%, according to Wolfe Research, well above the national rate of inflation at 32%.
On the other hand, the price of Disney World and Disneyland’s cheapest ticket has remained steady since 2019. A Disney World one-day, one-park, off-peak ticket will cost a park-goer $109, and its equivalent at Disneyland is $104. But on average, a one-day ticket at Walt Disney World costs $154, according to Wolfe Research, and a Magic Kingdom ticket costs as much as $189 during peak travel times.
“Given that linear television has been disappointing Disney and everybody else in that business for the last decade, it stands to reason that Disney might have responded to that by pricing its parks a little more aggressively in order to prop up its financial results,” said Peter Supino, the managing director at Wolfe Research. “It continues to be a premium experience that puts pressure on the more price-sensitive cohort of customers that want to go there and struggle with the cost.“
So is a Disney vacation getting too expensive for the average American? Watch the video above for the full story.
Disclosure: Comcast owns NBCUniversal, the parent company of CNBC.
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