To: NAG1 who wrote (211044) | 11/6/2021 11:51:57 AM | From: Doren | | | Interesting articles about the chip race: Anyone care to expound?
How Intel plans to catch Samsung and TSMC and regain its dominance in the chip market
Intel's Process Roadmap to 2025: with 4nm, 3nm, 20A and 18A?!
It is no secret that having "Intel 10nm" being equivalent to "TSMC 7nm", even though the numbers actually have nothing to do with the physical implementation, has ground at Intel for a while. A lot of the industry, for whatever reason, hasn’t learned that these numbers aren’t actually a physical measurement. They used to be, but when we moved from 2D planar transistors to 3D FinFET transistors, the numbers became nothing more than a marketing tool. Despite this, every time there’s an article about the technology, people get confused. We’ve been talking about it for half a decade, but the confusion still remains.
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Seems like most of this is actually a function of the company that makes the high end photolithography systems: ASML Holding (P/E=55) although as I understand it yields are partly a function of the chip's design where Apple seems to have a big edge and the expertise of the foundry plant owners where Samsung and TSMC seem to have the edge.
How small can they make them? |
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To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (211030) | 11/6/2021 3:28:20 PM | From: i-node | | | >> Meanwhile you have stocks like Tesla, valued more than Ford and GM combined. It makes no sense.
Far more value than Ford and GM combined. How many parts could one take off of a GM car and find a direct analog on a Tesla or the [to be] Apple car? The tires and wheels, I guess, but most everything else is just out with the old, in with the new. Ford and GM are well positioned to become specialty suppliers in the next ten years.
I saw an ad for Ford's self-driving the other day, where they were trying to spin the notion that once you manually guide it to a lane it will pretty much stay in that lane. Not impressive when true self-driving systems are going to cut insurance costs because they're safer.
If in fact Tesla has a backlog for a full year, I think it would be nuts to bet against them. Apple is clearly having to re-think its navigation system to adopt some of Tesla's, but that is a really big project and will take time.
Apple lacks the raw creative talent that Tesla has today. Which is surely the reason they have suffered from a creative deficit since Steve died. Steve was about changing the world. Elon is about changing the world. Tim is about making the most out of what he inherited. All valid strategies. I would not want to compete against Apple or Tesla ten years from now. Between now and then, Tesla is going to make a lot of friends around the world. |
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To: Doren who wrote (211036) | 11/6/2021 3:54:13 PM | From: i-node | | | >> Among other worries, lithium supplies, chips etc. Lithium is not in short supply. It is everywhere. The Earth's crust is 0.1% Lithium, which doesn't sound like much, but is plenty for the foreseeable future.
The ocean is 0.2% Lithium. We own a few brine wells, and they're post-processing the brine now to get Lithium out of it.
As to chips, Tesla hasn't been affected because of its agility in simply re-engineering the product to use what's available.
The greatest risk exposure of Tesla, Space-x, and the others is that something happens to Musk. That would be devastating not only for Tesla but for the world. It is impossible to imagine where Apple would be today if Steve were still there. |
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To: Doren who wrote (211045) | 11/6/2021 6:31:57 PM | From: NAG1 | | | Doren,
There is lots of stuff I don't understand about the chip making process. From my basic understanding(which may be wrong), Intel's problems, especially with chips for portable devices, was more related to heat issues as well as power consumption. They also were chronically late with their chip upgrades which made Apple switch away from them. |
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To: NAG1 who wrote (211048) | 11/6/2021 9:35:14 PM | From: Doren | | | Interestingly that was the problem with the Motorola/IBM RISC chips.
Apple went with intel CISC chips.
Now they're back to RISK with the ARM architecture. |
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To: Doren who wrote (211049) | 11/6/2021 11:30:48 PM | From: i-node | | | Truth is, we don’t know that much about what’s going on with the brine extraction. The brine wells sit in the middle of a sizable oilfield that dates way back, and I’ve always thought the principal interest was in using the brine for oilfield operations. We have small interests in oil wells throughout the county as well.
The interest in Lithium has just begun after some of the companies that buy the brine started getting lithium out of it. A company began researching the feasibility a few years ago and they seem to be all about it now, but they’ve had to set up more processing capability.
I do recall Musk saying he can get enough Lithium out of the Nevada desert. In fact, I think Tesla bought some land there to build a processing plant and mining operation but it was going to be 3-4 years before it is operational.
I don’t know how they get the lithium out of the brine. It takes a lot of water to get a little lithium. But I believe one of those wells produces 600,000 bbls a month so I guess it might be enough to make it worthwhile.
Sorry, I don’t know all that much about it. I used to follow what was going on with those royalties but not so much lately. |
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To: clochard who wrote (211052) | 11/7/2021 8:53:39 AM | From: Stock Puppy | | | Recycling will become a factor as spent lithium batteries pile up. I wonder how much they are worth.
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The question is the cost of recovery - how much energy is required to extract and get the lithium back a form usable for new batteries. Since they espouse lithium battery recycling, I assume that the cost is less than obtaining from natural sources, including the energy required for battery collection and transport and basic processing. The difference would be the value of the spent battery. |
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