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To: clean86 who wrote (210668)7/27/2021 10:34:10 PM
From: NAG1
2 Recommendations   of 212075
 
clean,

Think what tanked the stock today was the news about the iPhone chip shortages.

To me, it seemed like the share price was going down in the after hours, before the CC, and before they talked about continued chip shortages. I wonder if people were just into some profit taking. As the old saying goes, sell the news. Overall, I always find it hard to guess these short term moves.

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From: NAG17/28/2021 10:24:43 AM
2 Recommendations   of 212075
 
PED30 rating the analysts on their calls on the third quarter results

ped30.com

Any surprise that Sacconaghi and Ives are at the bottom of the list?

The trend I have noticed is that the independent analysts tend to do better when Apple is doing well. It is as if the institutional analysts are more cautious in their calls, maybe since they are playing with institutional money. The independent analysts, from memory, seemed to do worse in down times. Maybe, the signal to sell is when the institutional guys become as positive as the independents and/or when the independent guys start overestimating results.

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To: NAG1 who wrote (210676)7/28/2021 12:21:27 PM
From: Art Bechhoefer
1 Recommendation   of 212075
 
Rating the analysts on AAPL prospects is difficult unless you know what assumptions their predictions are based on. Are they using primarily technical analysis, fundamental analysis, or other methods? If one looks at value and management quality, AAPL doesn't look as overpriced as many other stocks, especially within the technology/consumer goods sector.

One also has to consider that a very large market capitalization company is less likely to grow as fast as smaller firms, which has an impact on many professional analysts and may account for the lackluster response to what most people would agree was a very strong earnings report. Because Apple, moreover, is a component of many popular stock indexes, its performance is tied to overall index performance, which may include a lot of stocks that are not doing as well.

I believe what worries many analysts as well as economists is the prolonged weaknesses brought on by the pandemic, along with the impacts from unvaccinated people getting sick, whether in the U.S. or abroad. The longer the pandemic persists, the more likely that there will be supply shortages, uneven supply and demand, labor shortages, and inflation brought on partly by these factors. It is in every investor's interest that worldwide vaccination rates should increase rapidly, and soon, or else there could be even worse consequences.

Future issues, apart from those which are pandemic related, should include the impact of patent infringement actions on AAPL gross margins, which I believe could be considerable. Taking all these factors into consideration should help explain the current price of AAPL shares.

Art

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To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (210677)7/28/2021 12:56:43 PM
From: NAG1
   of 212075
 
Art,

Rating the analysts on AAPL prospects is difficult unless you know what assumptions their predictions are based on. Are they using primarily technical analysis, fundamental analysis, or other methods? If one looks at value and management quality, AAPL doesn't look as overpriced as many other stocks, especially within the technology/consumer goods sector.
I mostly agree with what you say here. The linked article was based on the analysts calls on the third quarter numbers, not on their calls on where Apple shares will go. You are talking about a different rating about the quality of their coverage of Apple share price. There are biases that they have for and against a stock and company. I remember when PED first started covering Apple, if I am remembering correctly, he was more anti-Apple but he changed his mind based on what he saw and now he runs the PED30 website which covers Apple in a pretty fair manner.

Some analysts are better than others. Some are good all the time, some in up markets and some in down markets. The problem with analysts is that many are not evaluated correctly so some will continue to spout off about things when their record indicates that they don't have a good idea about what they are talking about. It would be nice if they owned their mistakes.

As to how to value Apple and what kind of PE to give, you bring up many good points. I think it is the reason why stocks like Apple bounce around so much. There are lots of different ways to value a company and what you want to pay for the share price. Some days, some things seem more important than others. That is why the market opens every morning and shares trade.

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From: Moonray7/28/2021 8:24:36 PM
   of 212075
 
Apple will require masks in many U.S. stores regardless of vaccination status

o~~~ O

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From: NAG17/29/2021 9:11:57 AM
1 Recommendation   of 212075
 
So, instead of focusing on the great quarter Apple had and the continued huge demand for their products, the bears of Wall Street have focused on the chip shortage that was mentioned and using this to have Apple sell off after earnings, at least according to this piece on PED30.

ped30.com

I think the big thing, for me, is that most consumers, if they have to wait a couple of weeks(and maybe months) waiting for an Apple product, most will wait until one is available. So it isn't a lost sale. It is just a sale delayed.

I also don't necessarily buy that the sell off was totally due to the chip shortage. It had started, according to what I saw, after they had announced the numbers but hadn't talked about the chip shortage yet. The present quarter's results didn't make it seem like the chip shortage was hurting Apple badly in the numbers.

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To: NAG1 who wrote (210680)7/29/2021 10:22:41 AM
From: Zen Dollar Round
3 Recommendations   of 212075
 
Makes for a good buying opportunity.

Jim Cramer confirmed yesterday on Mad Money that the chip shortage narrative is what is holding AAPL back.

My apologies to our moderator, clean86, who identified that issue early after earnings as the reason for the drop in AAPL.

I find it ironic that Mr. Market is punishing AAPL for mentioning the chip shortage issue as a caution moving forward considering Apple had a blowout quarter and obviously sold many, many products. Apparently the Market was looking for any reason to hold it back.

AAPL is still "beleaguered."

:-)

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To: Zen Dollar Round who wrote (210681)7/29/2021 4:38:31 PM
From: Doren
   of 212075
 
I think the market is partly saying "OK Apple, you and a bunch of tech companies had some good quarters because everyone stayed home and bought new tech devices and content. But that doesn't mean its going to happen again. There's a vaccine now. Everyone already upgraded."

Also unemployment and stimulus checks are coming to an end. Inflation may be coming.

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To: Doren who wrote (210682)7/29/2021 4:39:26 PM
From: Zen Dollar Round
   of 212075
 
And the market would be wrong in that case, especially for 5G iPhones

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To: Zen Dollar Round who wrote (210683)7/29/2021 4:51:01 PM
From: Doren
   of 212075
 
I'm still kind of at a loss about why 5G is so important. I guess to gamers maybe.

I don't think many are gamers here, if not why do you care about 5G??? I'm curious, am I missing something?

Personally the next phone I buy may or may not have 5G, but that's not what I care about at all. I'm interested in a bigger screen, more RAM, bigger battery, fast charging and image stabilization.

The Samsung A52 comes in two versions one with 5G, one without. I'll go for the cheaper one. It'll probably run around $200.

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