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To: clean86 who wrote (210668)7/27/2021 9:58:22 PM
From: Force Majeure
1 Recommendation   of 211876
 
Think what tanked the stock today was the news about the iPhone chip shortages.

Based on the vagueness of the earnings call comments, is it news or speculation? Yes, there was mention of chip shortages, but the reasons of said shortages remains unclear (at least in my book; feel free to help a brotha out if I'm misguided.) Could the hint of "shortages" be a demand "issue" and not as much a supply problem like the chicken littles are reporting? At least, that's how I took the 'news'. At the end of the day--right or wrong--the buzz and the market response decides the narrative, along with the actions that are taken, which will hopefully affect only the short term outcome of this amazing company.

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To: Stock Puppy who wrote (210670)7/27/2021 9:59:55 PM
From: Force Majeure
2 Recommendations   of 211876
 
You forgot to add:
Choke full of as much information as one also!
Your posts crack me up! At the very least always make me smile :)

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To: NAG1 who wrote (210667)7/27/2021 10:04:23 PM
From: Force Majeure
   of 211876
 
You are welcome. I have found his site informative to the point of thinking about joining later this year.
Ditto! Let me know if/when you do and if the 'inside' is worth it
I have owned Apple for about a quarter of a century right now. I have sold a fair amount to diversify the portfolio. I also just retired and sold some Apple last year to make sure I had enough cash on hand in case the markets crashed secondary to COVID. Apple is still too big a part of my net worth but I am selling at certain points to rebalance the portfolio.
WELL DONE!! I wish you much continued success!

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To: Force Majeure who wrote (210673)7/27/2021 10:30:51 PM
From: NAG1
   of 211876
 
FM,

Ditto! Let me know if/when you do and if the 'inside' is worth it
Will do.

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To: clean86 who wrote (210668)7/27/2021 10:34:10 PM
From: NAG1
2 Recommendations   of 211876
 
clean,

Think what tanked the stock today was the news about the iPhone chip shortages.

To me, it seemed like the share price was going down in the after hours, before the CC, and before they talked about continued chip shortages. I wonder if people were just into some profit taking. As the old saying goes, sell the news. Overall, I always find it hard to guess these short term moves.

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From: NAG17/28/2021 10:24:43 AM
2 Recommendations   of 211876
 
PED30 rating the analysts on their calls on the third quarter results

ped30.com

Any surprise that Sacconaghi and Ives are at the bottom of the list?

The trend I have noticed is that the independent analysts tend to do better when Apple is doing well. It is as if the institutional analysts are more cautious in their calls, maybe since they are playing with institutional money. The independent analysts, from memory, seemed to do worse in down times. Maybe, the signal to sell is when the institutional guys become as positive as the independents and/or when the independent guys start overestimating results.

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To: NAG1 who wrote (210676)7/28/2021 12:21:27 PM
From: Art Bechhoefer
1 Recommendation   of 211876
 
Rating the analysts on AAPL prospects is difficult unless you know what assumptions their predictions are based on. Are they using primarily technical analysis, fundamental analysis, or other methods? If one looks at value and management quality, AAPL doesn't look as overpriced as many other stocks, especially within the technology/consumer goods sector.

One also has to consider that a very large market capitalization company is less likely to grow as fast as smaller firms, which has an impact on many professional analysts and may account for the lackluster response to what most people would agree was a very strong earnings report. Because Apple, moreover, is a component of many popular stock indexes, its performance is tied to overall index performance, which may include a lot of stocks that are not doing as well.

I believe what worries many analysts as well as economists is the prolonged weaknesses brought on by the pandemic, along with the impacts from unvaccinated people getting sick, whether in the U.S. or abroad. The longer the pandemic persists, the more likely that there will be supply shortages, uneven supply and demand, labor shortages, and inflation brought on partly by these factors. It is in every investor's interest that worldwide vaccination rates should increase rapidly, and soon, or else there could be even worse consequences.

Future issues, apart from those which are pandemic related, should include the impact of patent infringement actions on AAPL gross margins, which I believe could be considerable. Taking all these factors into consideration should help explain the current price of AAPL shares.

Art

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To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (210677)7/28/2021 12:56:43 PM
From: NAG1
   of 211876
 
Art,

Rating the analysts on AAPL prospects is difficult unless you know what assumptions their predictions are based on. Are they using primarily technical analysis, fundamental analysis, or other methods? If one looks at value and management quality, AAPL doesn't look as overpriced as many other stocks, especially within the technology/consumer goods sector.
I mostly agree with what you say here. The linked article was based on the analysts calls on the third quarter numbers, not on their calls on where Apple shares will go. You are talking about a different rating about the quality of their coverage of Apple share price. There are biases that they have for and against a stock and company. I remember when PED first started covering Apple, if I am remembering correctly, he was more anti-Apple but he changed his mind based on what he saw and now he runs the PED30 website which covers Apple in a pretty fair manner.

Some analysts are better than others. Some are good all the time, some in up markets and some in down markets. The problem with analysts is that many are not evaluated correctly so some will continue to spout off about things when their record indicates that they don't have a good idea about what they are talking about. It would be nice if they owned their mistakes.

As to how to value Apple and what kind of PE to give, you bring up many good points. I think it is the reason why stocks like Apple bounce around so much. There are lots of different ways to value a company and what you want to pay for the share price. Some days, some things seem more important than others. That is why the market opens every morning and shares trade.

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From: Moonray7/28/2021 8:24:36 PM
   of 211876
 
Apple will require masks in many U.S. stores regardless of vaccination status

o~~~ O

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From: NAG17/29/2021 9:11:57 AM
1 Recommendation   of 211876
 
So, instead of focusing on the great quarter Apple had and the continued huge demand for their products, the bears of Wall Street have focused on the chip shortage that was mentioned and using this to have Apple sell off after earnings, at least according to this piece on PED30.

ped30.com

I think the big thing, for me, is that most consumers, if they have to wait a couple of weeks(and maybe months) waiting for an Apple product, most will wait until one is available. So it isn't a lost sale. It is just a sale delayed.

I also don't necessarily buy that the sell off was totally due to the chip shortage. It had started, according to what I saw, after they had announced the numbers but hadn't talked about the chip shortage yet. The present quarter's results didn't make it seem like the chip shortage was hurting Apple badly in the numbers.

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