| To: handyman who wrote (209238) | 7/29/2020 11:22:53 AM | | From: NAG1 | | | | handyman,
Phillip Elmer Dewitt at ped30 has the listing of estimates from analysts here
ped30.com
Interesting that earnings are being reported tomorrow and nobody is talking much about them. It looks like earnings will be around 2 bucks a share for the quarter and analysts have an average estimate of around 2.8 buck a share for the 4th quarter. This is the first quarter with all time spent in the pandemic zone, at least for the US and Europe. Maybe China will be the savior of the quarter per your linked article. But since Apple gave no guidance and probably won't give guidance for the 4th quarter, all these are guesses. What will be considered disappointing news that will make the stock fall and what will be considered good news enough to make the stock go up from here? |
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| To: handyman who wrote (209238) | 7/29/2020 11:30:52 AM | | From: Art Bechhoefer | | | | The article you provided the link to notes that Apple increased unit sales by offering more discounts. That means very likely that profit margins per unit were reduced. It may or may not mean that total profits from iPhone sales in China were reduced or not. We don't know because Apple no longer segments its data to show areas of strength or weakness.
Similarly, we don't know whether improving sales and profits from Apple services and the Apple Watch might compensate for any weakness in iPhone profits. My own view is that, notwithstanding the excellent financial strength of the company, the prospects going forward don't justify the current price. We'll know a little more tomorrow, of course.
Art |
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| To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (209240) | 7/29/2020 11:51:06 AM | | From: OrionX | | | | My own view is that, notwithstanding the excellent financial strength of the company, the prospects going forward don't justify the current price.
Man, there are so many stocks trading at undreamed of crazy high valuations (AMD comes to mind) that don't even have Apple's financial advantage. The disconnect between company fundamentals and valuations continues. Doesn't mean Apple isn't priced somewhat beyond fundamentals but with so much froth out there, some of it has to stick to Apple shares too. Just my understanding. Tomorrow's cc will certainly be interesting to listen to. |
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| To: NAG1 who wrote (209239) | 7/29/2020 12:54:44 PM | | From: handyman | | | | If I learned one thing for certain in my 40 plus years is I have no idea what any company I have is going to do in the short term.
The other thing is that you can’t fight the fed. For several months I ignored this truth and sat in cash while stocks I sold went went way up.
The market surely wants more money printed and the more the better and that starts with a trillion plus and works its way up.
I don’t think the market is looking at Apple to do anything special when they report. Apple is as good a play for the long term as it gets. Their balance sheet and cash flow are second to none. They can operate successfully in any environment except an all out Cold War with China but that seems very unlikely.
The third thing that I can attest to is I have sold Apple taking profits at different times in the last 12 years and every time I was wrong. If I sat tight I’d be holding 7000 shares right now but I wouldn’t have a lot of things that have given me and my family great times that you can’t put a price on. No regrets taking profits. |
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