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It’s ASCO that used to refuse to allow abstracts to be released publicly, [but let their attendees sell them at a high price to people on Wall Street well in advance of the meeting,] all in the name of keeping their meeting at the cutting edge of the state of the art, as if oncologists wouldn’t show up to meet and greet one another if the abstracts were released early. I don’t know if they changed their policy.
It’s difficult to believe that ASCO and AACR don’t know full well that the abstracts from their meetings can lead to major stock price swings for various small biotechs and even big pharma.
One thing I noticed years ago was looking at the floor plan for the commercial layout from various companies that usually goes along with any major conference. If you think your company has something worth selling, or informing anyone about, you buy floor space. On the other hand, if you know your drug is a bust, there’s no reason to spend a dime on floor space, even if you’ve already committed to presenting a poster and want to speak to all and sundry that wander by in order to catch their attention and perhaps future funding.
My worst stock, PACB, is down another 40% today, bringing the yearly decline to 83%. Revenue was flat compared with last year. Not good for a loss-making company.
Well… I’m tempted to limit this report to “Hey just look at the spreadsheet", and then hide under the covers until there is a report with at least a little fun in it.
So far, the contestants generally have had a lousy second quarter. And we are only three weeks in. This week was a “play no favorites” downer.
Indices? Down.
The contest selected stocks? The best performer, ONVO, boasted a ho-hum return for the week of 8.1%. Only seventeen contestant selections, out of 120 stocks, stayed out of the red for the week. And on the losers side? Three of the worst five for the week were drawn form our top five YTD performers. The whole thing has the feel of “Well gang, I think I’ll cash in these chips while I still can.” Not a “crash”, but one hell of a broadly based correction.
The week shaved another -$12k off the average portfolio, finally pushing it into the red for the YTD, -$5.2k. We were in the black almost all of the first quarter, sometimes substantially. EVERY portfolio lost money this week, with NOTABOT claiming the brass ring by only losing =$2.7k. The worst of the worst was BLADERUNNER, setting fire to -$36k of their paper profits. But, you know what? They are still top place YTD, though the gap with BULBAMAN has narrowed again with only -$11.8k separating them.
Otherwise the YTD rankings are really not worth commenting on, except to welcome JACK HArMANN back to the best YTD performer list, clawing their way up to eighth place.
*A figure emerges from a pile of bed spreads and duvets, looking around cautiously. He sniffs the air, then eyes the old ticker tape machine, churning out the market activity (it is restricted to following only the contest stocks and even then it frequently falls behind). Next to it is a boxy shape on a desk covered by a sheet. He whisks away the sheet to reveal a home-brew Bloomberg terminal, which he ignores. Instead he takes the sheet to a very large table, and with a snap spreads it out flat. He gingerly examines the entrails printed on the spread sheet …*
Well gang. This is better. Only a little, but still better.The NASDAQ snapped out of its multi-week swoon (+4%) and both biotech composites were in the black, but not enough to make either a winner YTD.
The contest stocks also had a more normal week: some winners, some losers, not like last week where it was hard to spot any black in a sea of red ink.
This week’s big winner was the marauders at VKTX, whose quarterly report, released Wednesday after market, “exceeded expectations”, one reason for its 58% return for the week, which packed on a little more padding to keep it number one YTD at +300%.l. Also it doesn’t hurt that almost every week Motley Fool and other analysts cover it with an article at least every other day, only rarely negative.
Second place BCAB (+18%) released their intent to attend an upcoming meeting. For third place, SERA (+17%) announced the date for the quarterlies, which was enough to put it on the top five YTD list in fifth. IMMP in fourth (also +17%) announced positive preliminary results.
On the losing side it’s tough sometimes to deduce any rhyme or reason for a drop. CRDF was the worst for the week , dropping -19%, just by scheduling a quarterly earnings release for next week, though not so bad to disturb its position in second place for the YTD (+180%). ALLO (-18%) had Zacks predict that they would exceed expectations both in an earrings report and perhaps clinical results. JSPR’s loss of -15% didn’t perturb its THIRD place position YTD return (+160%). GLYC (-12% for the week) also had the temerity to announce when their quarterly results will be announced in two weeks. And OCUL's -11% was undoubtedly caused by Motley Fool designating it as one of “Two Small-Cap Growth Stocks With Room to Run”.
Though generally not a big enough loser to make it to the weekly worst five, a long slide since New Year’s has finally been recognized; they are the fifth worst YTD stock, -61%.
Looking at the contest portfolios, this week posted a modest gain of +$1.5k on the value of an average portfolio, allowing the average YTD to move in the correct direction (up) to +$2.8k. in addition twelve portfolios managed to be in the black for the week
Led by a 15% position in VKTX, BULBAMAN had the best return for the week (+$9.5k), while BLADERUNNER had the worst (-$2.2k) by virtue(?) of having chosen the worst, third worst, and fourth worst stocks for the week. The net effect is that BLADERUNNER is still in first YTD (+$57k), but by an incredibly thin margin, only $116 separating them from BULBAMAN in second.
TECHNETIUM's second place return for the week, +$8.3k, was enough to bump them up from sixth to fifth YTD, +$12.9k. They also have a position in VKTX.
In fifth and sixth place in the weekly returns we see: RAJU_BIJLEE +$2.2k (investor in VKTX) verses ERIKOTTO, $960, (not holding any VKTX). The difference is enough that they have exchanged places on the YTD list, RAJU_BIJLEE in third now (+$19k), and ERIKOTTO fourth (+$18k).
DEW_DILIGENCE in seventh for the week, +$830 (They have VKTX, but unfortunately other positions did not go as well) which bumped them up one step in the YTD standings to sixth (+$4.7k).
Seven contestants are net positive for the year at this point.
Wow.This is certainly different than two weeks ago. As the lady (approximately) said: “Buckle up Folks. It's going to be a bumpy (market).”
Yes it was a good week for the NASDAQ Composite (+5.7%). But we laugh at such paltry gains when compared to the land of biotech, Ha! Ha! (Nasdaq biotech index +7.7%; S&P biotechs gain +8.9%)!!! Wait. Sorry. Somehow I was overcome by the exuberance of animal sprits. I’m calmer now.
But it WAS a good week. Those index gains pushed both biotech composites back into the black YTD. But it’s the particulars for the contest we’re interested in here.
At the top of this week’s performers is CU6.AX, listed (as the “.AX” denotes) on the Australian market. Most of the year it’s been noodling around without drawing much attention to itself. This week, however, since Tuesday morning each day was a signifier gain, with Friday being icing on the cake, to get a a total gain for the week of +59%. There is nothing on the wire, but they are in a promising phase III though the last news was a press release of two months ago.
Second place, is a familiar face: JSPR, +52%, enough to move it up to second place in the YTD standings (+210%). VKTX is still in first YTD (+310%).
In third, VERU returned +50%, and had four articles on the news wire last week. Three of these were from the company: that they will have their quarterly financials announced next week, that they will attend a “summit” meeting, and that they are now enrolling patients for a Phase IIb trial. The third, release Tuesday morning, might be the source of the buy sentiment. (The fourth was a Zacks technical analyst touting the appearance of a “Golden Cross’ as a reason to consider VERU. Private opinion: technical analysis is functionally equivalent to reading tea leaves.)
TMDX (+44%) strongly exceeded expatiations at the release 1st quarter financials, triggering a tsunami of analyst reports. ARDX (+37%) also released Q1 financials AND the announcement of the release of additional performance data at an upcoming meeting.
Looking at the losers, CRDF shows that exceeding expectations in Q1 results on Thursday afternoon was not a guaranteed win. Instead it lost big Friday, for a weeklong loss of -37%. So in this case they clearly disappointed the Market's expectations. But they are still a pretty big win, YTD (+138%), dropping two places in those standings to fourth.
The second worst for the week, KZIA, -22%, with much of the loss after announcing a “Successful Stage I” trial. Not successful enough I guess. BRNS (-8.7%) announced hiring a new Chief Medical office and canceling some elements of the CEO’s compensation. (How often does that happen?) ITRM (-6.1%) announced resubmitting a New Drug Application, with possible approval Q4.
And for the portfolios, this week saw an uptick of $9.7lk in their average value. In fact EVERY portfolio made a profit this week, enough to move five more portfolios into the black YTD.
First place went to BULBAMAN, +$19k, +$11.7k from their faith in CU6.AX. This allowed them to surge past BLADERUNNER by +$9.6k, into first place,YTD (+$76k).
The second best return for the week was DEW_DILIGENCE, $17k, moving them past TECHNETIUM into the fifth place YTD (+$22k).
Report Time Ranges
From
To
Recent
4/26/24
5/3/24
YTD
12/31/2023
Index Portfolios’ Performance
Symbol
Recent P/L
Recent %
YTD P/L
^IXIC
$5,824.38
5.7%
$7,627.39
^NBI
$7,179.11
7.7%
$172.93
^SPSIBI
$8,246.87
8.9%
$970.29
Share Performance
Recent Performance
YTD Performance
Top Five
Bottom Five
Top Five
Bottom 5
Symbol
P/L / Initial Price
Symbol
P/L / Initial Price
Symbol
YTD P/L / Initial Price
Symbol
YTD P/L/ Initial Price
CU6.AX
58.7%
CRDF
-37.2%
VKTX
313.6%
AMLX
-86.2%
JSPR
52.2%
KZIA
-22.3%
JSPR
210.8%
CNSP
-82.6%
VERU
50.0%
BRNS
-8.7%
PYXS
143.3%
PACB
-81.3%
TMDX
44.3%
ITRM
-6.1%
CRDF
137.8%
NERV
-61.5%
ARDX
37.1%
SCLP.L
-3.8%
VERU
126.4%
RVNC
-55.1%
Average and Median Portfolio Performance
Recent P/L
YTD P/L
Avg.
Median
Avg
Median
$9,664.37
$8,832.56
ARTHUR RADLEY
$12,512.14
$3,079.50
KATHLEEN
Top Seven Portfolio Performances
Top Recent Performers
Top YTD Performers
Contestant (Prev. Rank)
Recent P/L
P/L vs. ^SPSIBI
YTD P/L (Rank)
Contestant (Prev. Rank)
YTD P/L
vs. Top Portfolio
P/L vs. ^SPSIBI
Rec. P/L (Rank)
1 - BULBAMAN (1)
$18,938.21
$10,691.34
$75,592.86 (1)
1 - BULBAMAN (2)
$75,592.86
——
$74,622.57
$18,938.21 (1)
2 - DEW_DILIGENCE (7)
$16,937.32
$8,690.45
$21,667.94 (5)
2 - BLADERUNNER (1)
$65,966.37
$9,626.49
$64,996.09
$9,195.47 (7)
3 - RAJU_BIJLEE (5)
$14,151.84
$5,904.97
$33,238.16 (3)
3 - RAJU_BIJLEE (3)
$33,238.16
$42,354.71
$32,267.87
$14,151.84 (3)
4 - KATHLEEN (10)
$12,088.78
$3,841.91
$3,079.50 (9)
4 - ERIKOTTO (4)
$29,708.45
$45,884.41
$28,738.16
$11,722.17 (5)
5 - ERIKOTTO (6)
$11,722.17
$3,475.31
$29,708.45 (4)
5 - DEW_DILIGENCE (6)
$21,667.94
$53,924.93
$20,697.65
$16,937.32 (2)
6 - DART LANZER (3)
$9,240.16
$993.29
$1,046.62 (11)
6 - TECHNETIUM (5)
$18,735.27
$56,857.59
$17,764.98
$5,848.87 (16)
7 - BLADERUNNER (17)
$9,195.47
$948.60
$65,966.37 (2)
7 - TRACE I11 (7)
$10,933.08
$64,659.78
$9,962.79
$6,883.05 (13)
8 - JACK HARTMANN (8)
$8,856.55
$609.68
$6,403.99 (8)
8 - JACK HARTMANN (8)
$6,403.99
$69,188.87
$5,433.71
$8,856.55 (8)
Top Portfolios’ Contents
Second Place Recent Performance Portfolio (DEW_DILIGENCE)
Honestly, I thought it more likely than not that this week would see the pendulum swing back again, but it isn’t horrible, such that the net for the last two weeks is still a significant plus. So this week while the NASDAQ composite cooled to just a 1% gain, both the biotech indices were negative, enough to again move their YTD performances back into the red.
Probably the biggest news for biotechs this week was NVAX’s announcement Friday of a huge licensing agreement with Sanofi, with half a billion dollars in cash upfront, and an additional $700 million based on meeting a number of milestones. The agreement will include the commercialization of a combined Covide-19 and flu shot, and give Sanofi a minority holding in NVAX. This resulted in a weekly gain of +82% of its original price at the start of the contest, with almost all the activity on Friday. It also managed to put the big squeeze on what is among the most heavily shorted stocks in the US.
DSGN gained +32% for the week in response to their first quarter financials and releasing a discussion of upcoming expectations. PSTV was up +21% after announcing a private placement of up to $18 million. ZLAB added +14% with the release of first quarter financials, and the Aussies of CU6.AX gained another +12.5% for the week, adding to last week’s gains to put them in fifth place for their YTD performance of +99%.
This week’s big loser was GLYC (-66%) after announcing a failed Phase III trial, making it the worst holding YTD as well, -89%. VERU (-42%) and JSPR (-40%) gave back almost all of their gains of the previous week, dropping VERU from the top five YTD performers. IOVA’s first quarter earnings beat expectations, though the report’s lagging sales numbers may have resulted in the -33% drop. ENTA’s earnings report also disappointed to the tune of a -27% loss for the week.
Overall the contest portfolios shed -$4.6k on average, but the average YTD return is still in the black (+$7.9k), just under the NASDAQ composite's YTD return of +$8.9k.
Only three portfolios managed a positive return for the week, though YTD ten contestants ae still in the black. TOMATO had the best return, +$5.4k, as the only portfolio with a position in NVAX. This brought TOMATO up two spots in the YTD rankings to eighth place (+$7.6k). Likewise, STEVE LOKNESS was in second for the week (+$1.9k), the sole holder of DSGN.
Besides TOMATO every other of the top eight YTD contestants were in the red for the week, so changes in the rankings were more a matter of who had a less bad week. BLADERUNNER had the worst week, (-$22k), with holdings in GLYC, JSPR, and IOVA, but stayed in the number two spot YTD, even though the gap between them and number one BULBAMAN increased to $30k. RAJU_BIJLEE, another holder of both GLYC and IOVA, dropped from third to fourth, changing places with ERIKOTTO.
