| From: Sam | 6/12/2024 12:13:03 PM | | | | | | Hamas's narrative of the war in Gaza; the war will continue because the leaders of Hamas believe that they are winning.
from WaPo:
Hamas has its own narrative, too. The group, listed as a terrorist organization by the United States, casts itself at the heart of the resistance to Israeli occupation and says it successfully blew up the status quo that surrounded the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the frozen peace process between both sides. In April, even as the group faced major losses to its armed wing and the hideous toll exacted on Gaza’s civilians grew, Khaled Meshal, one of Hamas’s leaders in exile, told an audience in Qatar that his faction was further down “the path of liberating Palestine and defeating the Zionist project.”
Meshal was speaking in the wake of an Israeli airstrike that killed some family members of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh. The incident apparently elicited a similar reaction from Yehiya Sinwar, the shadowy Hamas leader within Gaza who is considered to be one of the masterminds of the Oct. 7 attack. In an April 11 message to Haniyeh, Sinwar allegedly told his colleague that the loss of his sons and other Palestinians during the war would “infuse life into the veins of this nation, prompting it to rise to its glory and honor.”
The details of Sinwar’s correspondence were reported Tuesday by the Wall Street Journal, which obtained dozens of messages he reportedly relayed to cease-fire negotiators, Hamas officials and others outside of Gaza. (The Washington Post was unable to independently verify the Journal’s reporting.)
“We have the Israelis right where we want them,” Sinwar said in a recent message, according to the Journal, to Hamas officials working to broker an agreement with Qatari and Egyptian officials. The inference here, the Journal noted, was that Sinwar believed further Israeli hostilities and mounting Palestinian casualties played into his organization’s hands. In a separate message, he likened the loss of Palestinian lives in Gaza to the death tolls in other revolutionary conflicts, including Algeria’s war for independence. He said that “these are necessary sacrifices.”
washingtonpost.com |
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| To: Madharry who wrote (1234) | 6/12/2024 12:19:46 PM | | From: S. maltophilia | | | | | I'm not seeing it so much. Hostage bargaining chips go back a lot further. It's not like somebody in, say, Boku Haram is going to get a sudden inspiration. Both sides will get something they want, and 6 weeks of ceasefire is good for both sides. It likely won't last that long. Either the Israeli religious nut jobs or Palestinian Islamic Jihad (who are at best loosely controlled by Hamas, and likely have done a substantial part of what Hamas is blamed for) will come up with a provocation. |
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| To: Sam who wrote (1236) | 6/12/2024 12:20:38 PM | | From: Sam | | | | The paradox ahead for Gaza: A postwar where war goes on
Even if major fighting ends, Israel will remain committed to demilitarizing Hamas.
By David Ignatius
June 11, 2024 at 6:13 p.m. EDT
When I ask a senior Israeli official to describe what “the day after” will look like in Gaza, assuming a cease-fire can be reached, he gives an honest but chilling answer: “It’s going to be long and bloody.”
That’s the stark reality facing U.S. mediators as they seek a truce with new support from the U.N. Security Council. Even if Hamas agrees and major fighting ends, Israel will remain committed to demilitarizing the terrorist group. No future Israeli government is likely to accept less. And Hamas will surely resist.
When we talk about a postwar Gaza, what does that mean? To me, it means that the international community, led by the United States, must create a security framework to reduce violence and civilian casualties as this awful conflict begins to unwind. The Biden administration is moving in that direction, with support from Israeli military leadership, if not Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken continued his intermittent shuttle diplomacy this week when he traveled to Israel and the region. He reminded Netanyahu that “total victory” can be a mirage, recalling that the United States learned the hard way in Iraq and Afghanistan that it could win every battle but lose the war — because it lacked a realistic political strategy.
Blinken’s hope is that Hamas’s leaders will accept the U.S. plan for a cease-fire and release of hostages and begin what would be a long — and undoubtedly bumpy — pathway to a permanent peace. The group sent a “response” on Tuesday seeking clarification, but administration officials wouldn’t comment on what that might mean. Humanitarian aid and reconstruction could begin immediately if Hamas says yes. But Blinken has been talking with Israelis and Arabs about a path toward de-escalation, regardless of what Hamas decides.
The good news is that most Israeli leaders agree that it’s time to think about a transition in Gaza. Israel wants a “downshift” there, as one U.S. official put it, in part so that it can focus more on the growing threat from Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Israel has a plan for the day after that officials tell me was endorsed by the war cabinet (including Netanyahu) before opposition leader Benny Gantz resigned this past weekend. This plan was proposed by Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who remains in the government. It goes by the shorthand name “humanitarian bubbles.”
The idea is that Israel would start a unilateral transition in an area in northern Gaza that’s largely clear of Hamas fighters. After establishing a firm perimeter there, the Israelis would withdraw and leave governance and local security to a loose council drawn from prominent local families, merchants, trade unions and other notables.
To provide muscle to keep Hamas out and maintain order, this governing group would rely on vetted local Palestinians supported by an international force, including some experienced Arab troops from countries such as Egypt. For good measure, the “bubble” might also employ Western security contractors like … well, they wouldn’t be from Blackwater, but that’s the idea.
U.S. officials tell me they are skeptical of this plan, and I share those doubts. It’s something between a “gated community” in an imaginary suburb far from Gaza and the “strategic hamlet” concept that proved so unsuccessful in Vietnam. What’s more, it wouldn’t be connected to the Palestinian Authority, which in addition to being the legitimate governing group remains Hamas’s most potent Palestinian foe.
Israeli officials counter that the bubble would be a pilot that might gradually draw support from other Palestinians who desperately need work and security. The goal, these officials say, would be to weaken Hamas while creating an alternative political space where humanitarian aid could be delivered safely and reconstruction could begin. Meanwhile, outside the bubble, the battle to eliminate Hamas would continue.
Some of Israel’s most experienced officials argue for the bubble approach because, they say, most Gaza Palestinians don’t believe Hamas has lost power. To break that psychology, they argue, Israel had to halt Hamas smuggling by seizing the Rafah corridor last month. Similarly, it must continue trying to eliminate Hamas’s leadership and stick decisively to the goal of demilitarization.
Turning to the Palestinian Authority doesn’t make sense, these officials contend, because it has only a few thousand reliable members in Gaza, and its leaders are old, tired and disliked by the public. There is no “revitalization” of the PA yet, only “makeup,” says one official.
What is the Biden administration’s alternative vision of the path forward? It begins with the reality that Israel can’t go it alone. To wind down the war, with or without a cease-fire, it needs support from the international community. The Security Council has backed the U.S. plan for a phased truce; next, it can support a framework for actual transition — which would provide legitimacy for a transitional governing authority and an international security force to work with local Palestinians.
We’re not yet at the day after, and even when we get there, it won’t be a bloodless process. But maybe this is “the day between,” and Biden and his team deserve credit for staying the course, dodging brickbats from left and right, in trying to halt this terrible war.
washingtonpost.com
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| To: Sam who wrote (1236) | 6/12/2024 12:29:16 PM | | From: S. maltophilia | | | | Hamas believe that they are winning
That would be the mother of all Pyrrhic victories. But Ignatius/Blinken have a point. Israel has won every battle (save maybe their recent 9/11). |
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| From: S. maltophilia | 6/12/2024 2:22:43 PM | | | | | | Another random Substacker buries the lede:
.....But there is one group left that Biden, specifically the Biden campaign, is concerned about. The one demographic left is billionaires and the ruling class. This group is steadfast in their support for Israel’s genocide. They don’t want peace – they want the weapons to keep being built and the money to keep flowing so that they can keep profiting. Whether they manifest as AIPAC or the recently uncovered WhatsApp chat of wealthy Zionists, or specific billionaire donors who don’t want any push-back against Israel (see Haim Saban), Biden wants their campaign contributions.
Lord knows that plenty of billionaires are flocking to Trump, and that many never stopped supporting him to begin with. They want deregulation, tax cuts, and more money than anyone could spend in ten lifetimes. But in a country where the rich buy....
jphilll.com
....The chat’s participants include Kind snack company founder Daniel Lubetzky, hedge fund manager Daniel Loeb, billionaire Len Blavatnik, real estate investor Joseph Sitt, former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz, Dell founder and CEO Michael Dell, hedge fund manager Bill Ackman and Joshua Kushner, founder of Thrive Capital and brother to Jared Kushner, former President Donald Trump’s son-in-law.... -from the WhatsApp link cited above |
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| To: Sam who wrote (1236) | 6/12/2024 9:28:47 PM | | From: TigerPaw | | | | the leaders of Hamas believe that they are winning.
Hamas is certainly not winning the war, but they are forcing Israel to make public that their goal is to chase all the Muslim out of the West Bank and Gaza to expand the size of Israel. Hamas is only winning if the rest of the world cares. |
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| To: TigerPaw who wrote (1242) | 6/13/2024 2:56:37 PM | | From: Sam | | | | That is only the goal of a maybe 10-15% of Israelis. It correlates with the goal of Hamas to eliminate Jews from Palestine. Minorities in both Israel and Gaza are running this show right now. Until the majorities find a way to assert themselves, the whole area will continue to be a tinderbox.
One thing that is not helpful is for people to not recognize the humanity and the goals of the majorities of both sides. The group Combatants for Peace is trying their best to overcome the huge hurdles to that goal in the midst of war.
This is from a long time FB friend:
Osama and Maoz, two men from different backgrounds - one Palestinian and one Israeli, that have faced tragic loss and pain and despite this continue to stand for peace.
Osama shares about his first CfP encounter: "A friend invited me to a meeting in Beit Jala. When I arrived, I discovered there were Israelis there. At first I refused to sit or talk to them, so I sat on the side. I heard an Israeli woman say, “We’re allowed to defend ourselves and we’re allowed to defend our people, but what happened in Gaza – to blow up a whole building and kill several families to take out one terrorist, that’s not acceptable to me. That is not my people, that is not my army.”
That moment changed my life. I wanted to hug her. After that I kept meeting with Israelis, learning about them – befriending them. My entire perspective shifted. I went to more and more joint gatherings. I met people, who only years before were my enemy – who might have shot bullets in the direction of me or my friends. Yet today we work together for peace, justice, security, equality and dignity.
I know that we can only heal this situation if we work together. We can only end this conflict, and heal the sorrow and pain of both our nations, if we work together cooperatively and peacefully. Peace cannot come through war. Freedom will only come when we break out of the chains that bind us: the chains of hatred, of violence and of revenge."
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| From: S. maltophilia | 6/13/2024 3:38:36 PM | | | | | | .......Over the next few weeks, the Israeli authorities questioned Professor Shalhoub-Kevorkian for more than 17 hours in several lengthy sessions, delving into her books and views on a variety of subjects, according to her lawyers.
“The police have already exceeded the authority given to them by asking her about other statements and things that are her opinions,” said Mazen Masri, senior lecturer of law at City University of London and a member of the professor’s legal team.
Alaa Mahajna, her lead lawyer in Jerusalem, said: “The message is clear — no dissent from the Zionist consensus is allowed.”
The Israeli police and national security ministry did not respond to requests for comment......
nytimes.com
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