NGL to da moon (well, maybe to $10?)!! | Stock Discussion Forums

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy NGL to da moon (well, maybe to $10?)!!

Previous 10 Next 10

To: Elroy who wrote (26)	12/15/2023 3:03:29 PM
From: Area51	of 109

Nice move. I used to think that this stock was somewhat sensitive to the price for natural gas liquids, hence the ticker NGL. I guess in toiday's configuration they are not very sensitive to the price of NGLs? I haven't even looked at the price of natural gas liquids lately but with natural gas price down I assume the price of natural gas liquids is also down?

Share	RecommendKeepReply Mark as Last Read Read Replies (1)

To: Area51 who wrote (27)	12/15/2023 3:38:20 PM
From: Elroy	of 109

NGL is a balance sheet repair story at the moment. They were going bankrupt about a year ago (price was about $1.00). Now the market has determined they are not going bankrupt, and are in fact probably soon going to refinance their long term debt, bring their preferreds out of arrears, and some day even pay a distribution again. The price of natural gas isn't a big factor for the unit price. NGL has three businesses, the exciting one is piping water around the oil exploration industry.

Share	RecommendKeepReply Mark as Last Read Read Replies (1)

To: Elroy who wrote (28)	12/19/2023 7:55:16 PM
From: Elroy	of 109

I'm interested if anyone has an idea on how to value NGL, what do you suggest? What's $650m in EBITDA which is perhaps growing 10% per year worth?

Share	RecommendKeepReply Mark as Last Read Read Replies (1)

To: Elroy who wrote (29)	12/21/2023 9:23:05 PM
From: Area51	of 109

I'd say/guess EV of 6x EBITDA if they are not investment grade (they're not IG right?) but are able to meet or roll over all their debt obligations. That gives EV = 3.9 and current EV = 3.6B,current Market cap = 740 million. So if that data is right maybe could appreciate 50% roughly from here. I like this guy on seekingalpha though: I think NGL is still a winner here, although not sure I want to add here. Timothy Stabosz @VMR Research Agree. Incredibly exciting. Plus the documented rise in volumes of oil output domestically should bode well for their business overall (especially water). This looks like “break out” time. This company’s incredible turnaround is just beginning to be discovered. But it is a large enough outfit, such that the move above $5, as well as the involvement of high profile outfits like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan, whose most recent 13F reports all show substantive buying, tell me that this stock still has explosive potential….especially as the leverage ratio keeps ratcheting lower, into “non-distressed” territory. I’m convinced this is going to be a massive winner for me in 2024….just like it was in 2023. $8-10 in 12 months. Dec. 15, 2023 12:56 PM View

Share	RecommendKeepReply Mark as Last Read

From: Elroy	1/2/2024 11:19:36 AM
	of 109

NGL preferreds continue to move higher. The NGL-B is $28.20, and the NGL-C is $27.20. These preferreds were $11 a year ago. Both of these preferred stocks are in arrears (for about three years), and accumulating obligations as time passes. Someone thinks they're going to get paid this year. NGL itself has moved from $4 to $5.50 in the last month. It feels like good news has leaked, but who knows? In 2023 NGL positively pre-annoucend business trends after market close on the first trading day of the year. Hopefully they give some business update (which explains the preferred and common unit recent price increases) this week, if not after the close today. We can hope!

Share	RecommendKeepReply Mark as Last Read

From: Elroy	1/4/2024 8:26:43 AM
	of 109

Damn. I was hoping for a press release out of NGL this week with a business update. But so far, nothing....

Share	RecommendKeepReply Mark as Last Read Read Replies (1)

From: Elroy	1/11/2024 8:54:29 AM
	of 109

ET just issued new $3 billion 2034 debt (and also issued some later dated notes), and repurchased it's nearer term debt, and much of it's outstanding preferred stock. Energy Transfer LP Announces Pricing of $3 Billion of Senior Notes and $800 Million of Fixed-to-Fixed Reset Rate Junior Subordinated Notes finance.yahoo.com The rate on the new 2034 debt is 5.55%. I'm pointing this out because NGL may do something very similar this year. NGL has about $2.4 billion in 2026 debt that it plans to refinance around this coming summer. NGL won't (I think) get 5.55%, but if they can get something below 8.5%, I'll be happy. NGL also has about $900m preferred stock with VERY high coupons, which is currently in arrears. I don't know exactly what is NGL's plan for "fixing" the preferreds, all they've said that I'm aware of is they don't plan to pay down the arrearage before Q1 2024.

Share	RecommendKeepReply Mark as Last Read

To: Elroy who wrote (32)	1/17/2024 2:19:25 PM
From: FIFO_kid2	of 109

Elroy- I was wondering what the related UBTI rate per share on this last year since it appears you have owned this for awhile because I am potentially interested in this company for a tax deferred account and don't want the $1000 trigger. I have to congratulate you on this pick for 2023 I didn't pull the trigger because it was over leveraged the UBTI potential and at the time I avoided companies with a high debt exposure but I think the risk in this stock has fallen tremendously since both the company related and macro favoring lower rates and share price weakness is starting to create an opportunity.

Share	RecommendKeepReply Mark as Last Read Read Replies (1)

To: FIFO_kid2 who wrote (34)	1/17/2024 4:10:19 PM
From: Elroy	of 109

I think in a retirement account you are much better of buying NGL options. Then any gain/loss will be tax free, and have zero UBTI. I don't know how to calculate the UBTI per share, and I think the forward outlook may be much different than the past few years, but not really sure.

Share	RecommendKeepReply Mark as Last Read Read Replies (1)

From: Elroy	1/17/2024 7:38:39 PM
	of 109

TULSA, Okla., January 17, 2024--( BUSINESS WIRE)--New Term Loan Facility NGL Energy Partners LP (NYSE: NGL) ("Partnership" or "NGL"), together with its wholly owned subsidiary NGL Energy Operating LLC ("NGL Energy Operating"), today announced plans to syndicate a new seven-year $700 million senior secured term loan facility (the "Term Loan Facility"). NGL Energy Operating will be the borrower under the Term Loan Facility. NGL Energy Operating expects to use the net proceeds of the Term Loan Facility, together with proceeds from any additional senior secured financing, to refinance existing debt (including repayment of existing senior notes); to pay related fees, costs and expenses; and for general corporate purposes. ---------- I think this may be good news, depending on the rate that they get for the new loan facility. This could give some indication of how NGL will do in the upcoming refinancing. ------ Preliminary Third Quarter Results In connection with the Term Loan Facility syndication, NGL is providing certain preliminary estimates of financial information for its fiscal third quarter ended December 31, 2023. For the three months ended December 31, 2023, NGL is estimating the following: Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA1: $150 - $160 million; and Capital expenditures (including both maintenance and growth): $30 - $40 million. In addition, NGL is providing the following information regarding the outstanding principal amount of certain of its debt as of December 31, 2023: Asset-based revolving credit facility borrowings of: $55.0 million Senior notes: 6.125% senior unsecured notes due 2025: $281 million; 7.5% senior unsecured notes due 2026: $320 million; and 7.500% senior secured notes due 2026: $2.050 billion. ----- I think the EBITDA is in line with the guidance they gave last call. It's down significantly from the year ago period. But their long term debt now is about $2.65b and $55m outstanding on the existing term loan. That's a decent three month reduction in debt...... The upsized $700m facility will be used in Q1 2024 to repurchase the 6.125% 2025 notes I think. Then the next step in the balance sheet is refinancing the $2.37b 2026 notes. The upsized term loan issuance may give us some idea of what rate to expect in the refi.

Share	RecommendKeepReply Mark as Last Read