| To: Elroy who wrote (24) | 12/6/2023 8:53:25 AM | | From: Elroy | | | | Hmmm, it appears NGL has twice before held "Open Seasons" for the Grand Mesa pipeline, once in 2016 and once in 2021.
Here's the 2021 announcement:
feeds.issuerdirect.com
I don't see any press release indicating the results of that 2021 open season, so perhaps there will not be a press release indicating the results of the current Open Season.
I'm not really sure what to make of this, but it seems like bad news as we'd prefer to have the Grand Mesa pipeline already be at capacity, and since NGL is (evidently) trying to sell 40k barrels per day of capacity in this Open Season, I guess it means that there is 40k barrels of capacity which are not currently purchased by customers.
And the wording in the press release about a "discounted rate" doesn't seem appealing. I guess there is a trade off between spot prices and pre-contracted prices, so it's probably normal wording, but still, I'd prefer it if demand were so high that they were selling capacity at elevated rates.....
NGL is holding the current open season to contract available capacity on the Grand Mesa pipeline at a discounted rate.
Not really sure what to make of this announcement. I guess it's normal, but whether it's a positive or negative indicator I don't know. I suppose it depends on the results of the Open Season, something we may not get to see until future quarterly results are released. |
| | NGL to da moon (well, maybe to $10?)!! | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read |
|
| From: Elroy | 12/15/2023 1:01:55 PM | | | | | | NGL bustin' through $5.
NGL's publicly traded preferreds are now trading ABOVE par. I think that means the market expects them to be made current (they're in arrears at the moment) withing a reasonable timeframe.
NGL did two investor conferences in the past 3-4 weeks. Maybe they spread some good news.
NGL has an ongoing Open Season now to fill up it's Grand Mesa pipeline. Maybe the bidding is coming in higher than expected?
Anyways, so far so good. |
| | NGL to da moon (well, maybe to $10?)!! | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1) |
|
| To: Elroy who wrote (26) | 12/15/2023 3:03:29 PM | | From: Area51 | | | | Nice move.
I used to think that this stock was somewhat sensitive to the price for natural gas liquids, hence the ticker NGL. I guess in toiday's configuration they are not very sensitive to the price of NGLs? I haven't even looked at the price of natural gas liquids lately but with natural gas price down I assume the price of natural gas liquids is also down? |
| | NGL to da moon (well, maybe to $10?)!! | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1) |
|
| To: Area51 who wrote (27) | 12/15/2023 3:38:20 PM | | From: Elroy | | | | NGL is a balance sheet repair story at the moment. They were going bankrupt about a year ago (price was about $1.00). Now the market has determined they are not going bankrupt, and are in fact probably soon going to refinance their long term debt, bring their preferreds out of arrears, and some day even pay a distribution again.
The price of natural gas isn't a big factor for the unit price.
NGL has three businesses, the exciting one is piping water around the oil exploration industry. |
| | NGL to da moon (well, maybe to $10?)!! | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1) |
|
| To: Elroy who wrote (28) | 12/19/2023 7:55:16 PM | | From: Elroy | | | | I'm interested if anyone has an idea on how to value NGL, what do you suggest?
What's $650m in EBITDA which is perhaps growing 10% per year worth? |
| | NGL to da moon (well, maybe to $10?)!! | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1) |
|
| To: Elroy who wrote (29) | 12/21/2023 9:23:05 PM | | From: Area51 | | | | I'd say/guess EV of 6x EBITDA if they are not investment grade (they're not IG right?) but are able to meet or roll over all their debt obligations. That gives EV = 3.9 and current EV = 3.6B,current Market cap = 740 million. So if that data is right maybe could appreciate 50% roughly from here.
I like this guy on seekingalpha though: I think NGL is still a winner here, although not sure I want to add here.
Timothy Stabosz
@VMR Research
Agree. Incredibly exciting. Plus the documented rise in volumes of oil output domestically should bode well for their business overall (especially water). This looks like “break out” time.
This company’s incredible turnaround is just beginning to be discovered. But it is a large enough outfit, such that the move above $5, as well as the involvement of high profile outfits like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan, whose most recent 13F reports all show substantive buying, tell me that this stock still has explosive potential….especially as the leverage ratio keeps ratcheting lower, into “non-distressed” territory.
I’m convinced this is going to be a massive winner for me in 2024….just like it was in 2023. $8-10 in 12 months.
Dec. 15, 2023
12:56 PM
View |
| | NGL to da moon (well, maybe to $10?)!! | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read |
|
| From: Elroy | 1/2/2024 11:19:36 AM | | | | | | NGL preferreds continue to move higher. The NGL-B is $28.20, and the NGL-C is $27.20.
These preferreds were $11 a year ago.
Both of these preferred stocks are in arrears (for about three years), and accumulating obligations as time passes.
Someone thinks they're going to get paid this year.
NGL itself has moved from $4 to $5.50 in the last month.
It feels like good news has leaked, but who knows?
In 2023 NGL positively pre-annoucend business trends after market close on the first trading day of the year. Hopefully they give some business update (which explains the preferred and common unit recent price increases) this week, if not after the close today.
We can hope! |
| | NGL to da moon (well, maybe to $10?)!! | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read |
|
| From: Elroy | 1/11/2024 8:54:29 AM | | | | | | ET just issued new $3 billion 2034 debt (and also issued some later dated notes), and repurchased it's nearer term debt, and much of it's outstanding preferred stock.
Energy Transfer LP Announces Pricing of $3 Billion of Senior Notes and $800 Million of Fixed-to-Fixed Reset Rate Junior Subordinated Notes
finance.yahoo.com
The rate on the new 2034 debt is 5.55%.
I'm pointing this out because NGL may do something very similar this year. NGL has about $2.4 billion in 2026 debt that it plans to refinance around this coming summer.
NGL won't (I think) get 5.55%, but if they can get something below 8.5%, I'll be happy.
NGL also has about $900m preferred stock with VERY high coupons, which is currently in arrears. I don't know exactly what is NGL's plan for "fixing" the preferreds, all they've said that I'm aware of is they don't plan to pay down the arrearage before Q1 2024. |
| | NGL to da moon (well, maybe to $10?)!! | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read |
|
| To: Elroy who wrote (32) | 1/17/2024 2:19:25 PM | | From: FIFO_kid2 | | | | Elroy- I was wondering what the related UBTI rate per share on this last year since it appears you have owned this for awhile because I am potentially interested in this company for a tax deferred account and don't want the $1000 trigger.
I have to congratulate you on this pick for 2023 I didn't pull the trigger because it was over leveraged the UBTI potential and at the time I avoided companies with a high debt exposure but I think the risk in this stock has fallen tremendously since both the company related and macro favoring lower rates and share price weakness is starting to create an opportunity. |
| | NGL to da moon (well, maybe to $10?)!! | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1) |
|
| |
