To: rimshot who wrote (1292) | 9/22/2023 11:10:51 AM | From: rimshot | | | SPY 435.11 to 435.70 are key possible Up targets in coming hours or days
* future Upward Staying Power relies upon surpassing this price zone
so far:
444.97 = week High 431.23 = week Low ( lower lows printed in Thursday AH session ) |
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To: rimshot who wrote (1293) | 9/22/2023 1:47:40 PM | From: rimshot | | | SPY 429.90 = next lower down target is possible in coming hours or days
once 431.23 low of week fails to hold
432.52 = Resistance for new bounces, if any |
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To: rimshot who wrote (1241) | 9/23/2023 1:29:00 PM | From: rimshot | | | Scott's daily charts for five indices showing the ROC-25 smoothed with the 5-day EMA & 55-day EMA for trend interpretation of the positive or negative net Buying Power minus Selling Power when compared to the ROC zero line-
* Scott (RIP) smoothed the ROC in order to avoid trend identification whipsaw
( ROC stands for Rate of Change )
Scott's daily ROC-25 charts for each major index, smoothed with two moving averages for the purposes of:
1.ROC-25 moving average crossover vigilance
&
2.zero line crosses by either one of the two ROC moving averages are in a bullish location if above the ROC zero line and in a bearish location if below the ROC zero line ...
optimally the chart condition for both Moving Averages is required to confirm the probable directional Staying Power of any future upward or downward price action
*the ROC-25 smoothed with the 55-day EMA has been pointing down toward the ROC zero line for all indices
stockcharts.com
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* Note - veteran technicians consider the $VLE technicals as especially reliable for divining the US market direction
" The Rate-of-Change oscillator measures the speed at which prices are changing. An upward surge in the Rate-of-Change reflects a sharp price advance. A downward plunge indicates a steep price decline. Sustained advances often start with a big surge out of the gate.
Subsequent advances are usually less sharp and this causes a bearish divergence to form in the Rate-of-Change oscillator.
It is important to remember that prices are constantly increasing as long as the Rate-of-Change remains positive. "
( StockCharts.com ) |
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To: rimshot who wrote (1292) | 9/23/2023 1:49:05 PM | From: rimshot | | | $SPX - Friday's Sept 22 daily close and intraday price low violated the intraday lows which took place on:
August 18 June 26
$SPX daily -
* the rising 144-day EMA has not been breached * the 55,2.1 %b rests within the customary buy region
stockcharts.com |
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To: rimshot who wrote (1297) | 9/23/2023 5:08:57 PM | From: rimshot | | | $OEX daily chart -
* 55,2.1 %b now rests in the customary buy region * 15,3,5 Full STO is fully Oversold * June and August pullback lows have not yet been violated
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To: rimshot who wrote (1297) | 9/24/2023 12:03:56 PM | From: rimshot | | | SPY 434.84 = 100-day SMA current value, at Sept 22 close
SPY daily closes chart -
* the S&P 500 McClellan Oscillator approaches the Maximum Oversold value region, the McO is now at negative 77 level
* price action near the daily 63,2.0 lower Bollinger Band value is customarily a buy trigger during bull market conditions ... now at 431.22
* a somewhat bullish condition continues for the 10-day EMA smoothing of the SPX New Highs minus OEX New Highs metric which is now at 6.23, which is below its July peak near 40 New Highs for the adjusted S&P 500 minus the S&P 100
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some items to consider for selecting a directional bias for swing trading in the future:
1. if a future OEX rally surpasses and holds above 2040 level, keep your SPY and QQQ longs once entered for a possible lengthy hold because any SPY bounce level would be within reason in the coming days/weeks
2. the individual daily net Advance - Decline values for each index were tiny negative values compared to the giant negative prints by the AD values on Thursday ... so the lower intraday price lows printed on Friday were relatively not supported by similar negative moves by the daily AD values
lower intraday low prints on Friday vs. Thursday's intraday low:
QQQ by only 10 cents SPY by a decent margin OEX by a decent margin /ES by a decent margin $SOX printed a higher low on Fri vs. Thurs
fyi - $NYA price action is only barely below its 200-day SMA, and Friday wasthe 1st time in several weeks ... matching with a decently deep violation of the daily Lower BB not seen since mid-August from which price bounced strongly
$NYA daily closes line chart -
* could be a "near" double bottom setting up, using daily closes vs. the June 2023 pullback
stockcharts.com
regarding QQQ, this Weekly metric now rests within the upper reaches of its customary buy zone -
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$NDX daily cumulative AD line now rests near its customary buy point - the daily 50,2 lower Bolllinger Band when bull market conditions persist over time -

$NYA above OR below its 3-year simple moving average (156 weeks ) provides evidence whether we are at the confirmed start of a possible deep price correction or not
$NYA weekly -
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From: rimshot | 9/24/2023 12:12:09 PM | | | | FYI - I will have no internet or cell signal from Sept 24 through at least Sept 29, while camping & hiking |
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To: rimshot who wrote (1264) | 11/3/2023 10:03:34 PM | From: rimshot | | | Larry McMillan - Friday November 3, 2023 blog update
my summary of reading his update is that his line in the sand has a value of $SPX 4,400 and coupled with other considerations he will abandon his actual trade $'s in play for his current bearish bet, and if other items confirm he will consider an actual hold for at least two days above the $SPX 4,400 level to be very bullish ==============================================
4,393.57 = the mid-October 2023 intraday high
$SPX daily -
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