| From: rimshot | 2/25/2023 1:36:04 PM | | | | | | Helene's poll Saturday morning shows:
56% betting down
43% betting up
for next week ending March 3, 2023
here is her updated Net Sentiment chart incl today's Poll stat -
* this represents 5 consecutive weeks of negative sentiment
pbs.twimg.com |
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| To: rimshot who wrote (1236) | 2/25/2023 2:53:04 PM | | From: rimshot | | | | Morgan Stanley says the S&P 500 could drop 26% in months
Expensive US equities are flashing a warning sign that could see the S&P 500
sliding as much as 26% in the first half of this year,
according to Morgan Stanley strategists.
==================================================
" Theoretically, stretched valuations are no hurdle for equities as long
as corporate profits are able to catch up.
Whether that will happen again this time is the biggest question facing equity investors today.
In the eyes of Ed Yardeni, the founder of his namesake firm,
the PEG ratio reflects two warring narratives —
one showing investors are willing to look past any short-term roadblocks and pay up for stocks,
and another reflecting mounting skepticism over growth.
“It’s signaling caution because you got a tug of war between the relative pessimism
of analysts and the relative optimism of investors,” Yardeni said.
“It may just turn out that it’s a tug of war where neither side makes any progress,
which is what it could be for a little while.”
Since June, the S&P 500 has been mostly stuck in an 800-point band,
creating headaches for bulls and bears alike.
Over the stretch, the index’s closing prices averaged at 3,939 —
about 30 points away from where it ended Friday.
With the benchmark gauge surging as much as 17% from its October low,
some market watchers have viewed the rebound as the start of a new bull market.
To David Donabedian, chief investment officer of CIBC Private Wealth US,
it’s too early to call the all-clear given stocks have yet to start looking like bargains.
“It didn’t say that back in October either when we had the beginning of this market rally,
” Donabedian said.
"So to me, we have not seen that capitulation phase that every bear market
has where investors throw in the towel, give up hope and you get a market
that looks objectively inexpensive. We’re not there yet.” |
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| To: rimshot who wrote (226) | 2/25/2023 3:40:48 PM | | From: rimshot | | | | Nasdaq 100 Percentage of individual stocks having
rising PMO's is now 11%, at Friday's Feb. 24 close ...
* following a weekly gap down, the chart history shows
this PMO rising metric often bottoms & reverses back up
in the following week OR in the second week or at worse case
in the third following week
weekly chart of Percentage of $NDX components having rising PMO's -
stockcharts.com |
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| To: rimshot who wrote (1130) | 2/25/2023 4:23:40 PM | | From: rimshot | | | | both NYSE McClellan Oscillators' daily values have printed Negative for 12 consecutive days:
1. NYSE All-Issues McClellan Oscillator
2. NYSE Common-Stocks-Only McClellan Oscillator
* the All-Issues & the CSO Advance-Decline lines remain in a mildly vulnerable bullish setup for now
because they rest above their rising 50-day SMA's
stockcharts.com
stockcharts.com
* Note the McClellan Oscillator values displayed Positively Divergent higher lows in
October 2022 vs. the September 2022 lows ... institutions closely watch
for McO prints that display Pos Divg or Neg Divg
chart #2 - daily chart of net Advancers minus Decliners count is shown here
for six different indices -
stockcharts.com
for the NYSE All-Issues data set, February 21, 2023 was the most negative
daily net Advance-Decline print so far in 2023 ...
at negative 2,337 on Feb. 21 vs. negative 1,297 on Feb. 24 |
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| To: rimshot who wrote (1177) | 2/28/2023 4:18:54 AM | | From: rimshot | | | | Scott's daily ROC-25 charts for each major index,
smoothed with two moving averages for the purposes of:
1. ROC-25 moving average crossover vigilance ( ROC stands for Rate of Change )
&
2. zero line crosses by either one of the two ROC moving averages are in a bullish location if above the ROC zero line
and
in a bearish location if below the ROC zero line ...
which are optimally both required to confirm the probable directional Staying Power of any future
upward or downward price action
* the ROC-25 smoothed with the 55-day EMA and also smoothed
with the 5-day EMA are pointing downward toward the ROC zero line
for all indices,
with the exception of the ROC-25 55-day smoothing for the
$COMPQ ROC-25, updated for Monday's February 27, 2023 close
stockcharts.com
stockcharts.com
stockcharts.com
stockcharts.com
stockcharts.com
* Note - veteran technicians consider the $VLE technicals as especially reliable for divining the US market direction
( RIP Scott Stringer, master student of the math aspect of price analysis )
complimentary chart -
stockcharts.com
shown above is a daily chart showing the cumulative version
of the McClellan Oscillator for the NYSE Common-Stocks-Only data set
which currently shows the cumulative McO pointing downward toward the cumulative McO zero line
and also below its rising 30-day simple moving average for a considerable # of trading days,
which represents a warning sign for the ongoing health status of the US equity market
and
is what I consider an item not to ignore, as Arthur Hill, CMT likes to say
for special warnings when they occur
Message #74307 from rimshot at 12/1/2022 9:21:39 AM
Scott's 233,1 EMA applied to the SPY daily closes chart -
stockcharts.com
( as stated in prior months, Scott is now deceased nearly two years )
Note - SPY price history is adjusted downward by the amount of each
SPY quarterly dividend, so the price history will not match what Fidelity or ThinkOrSwim charts display
Message #1177 from rimshot at 1/21/2023 2:49:40 PM
Scott's daily charts for five indices showing
the ROC-25 smoothed with the 5-day EMA & 55-day EMA
for trend interpretation of the positive or negative net
Buying Power when compared to the ROC zero line -
* Scott (RIP) smoothed the ROC in order to avoid trend identification whipsaw
SPY - 5 EMA has risen since Jan. 9 and both EMA's rest near zero line all of this week
$SPX - 5 EMA has risen since Jan. 9 and both EMA's rest near zero line all of this week
$VLE - both EMA's rest above zero line for 2 weeks
$NYA - both EMA's rest above zero line for 2 weeks
$COMPQ - both EMA's rest below zero line since mid-December ... rising since early January
" The Rate-of-Change oscillator measures the speed at which prices are changing.
An upward surge in the Rate-of-Change reflects a sharp price advance.
A downward plunge indicates a steep price decline.
Sustained advances often start with a big surge out of the gate.
Subsequent advances are usually less sharp and this causes
a bearish divergence to form in the Rate-of-Change oscillator.
It is important to remember that prices are constantly increasing as long
as the Rate-of-Change remains positive. "
( StockCharts.com ) |
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| To: rimshot who wrote (1235) | 2/28/2023 4:28:18 AM | | From: rimshot | | | | 4014.xx = the /ES Volume Point of Control current value looking
back 30 trading days
4005.60 = the Volume Point of Control current value looking
back 10 & 5 trading days
3992 to 3995.xx = the Volume Point of Control current values looking
back 90, 180 and 360 trading days using Volume by Price analysis at the most
detailed level ( software accomplishes this task )
* all values updated for the Monday February 27, 2023 5:00 pm ET close |
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| To: rimshot who wrote (1242) | 3/4/2023 2:38:45 PM | | From: rimshot | | | | 403.89 = SPY 600-day SMA current value
* as of Friday's March 3, 2023 close
SPY daily chart with select Moving Averages and indicators and
internal metrics for:
1. the S&P 500 index
2. the NYSE
stockcharts.com |
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| To: rimshot who wrote (1240) | 3/8/2023 9:14:30 AM | | From: rimshot | | | | *** Alert: from the Ignore at your Peril camp of data interpretation ***
source of data for each item is SC
Tuesday's March 7, 2023 final end of day negative breadth thrust values for six indices
( or exchange in the case of the NYSE all-stocks data set )
compared to the February 21, 2023 large value print in 2023 for
a daily negative breadth thrust as follows:
$OEX - S&P 100 index - daily print of negative 94, which sits below the Feb. 21 negative print and
only slightly above the largest negative print seen in January 2023
$SPX - S&P 500 index - daily print of negative 439, which sits below the the Feb. 21 negative print of 428,
and represents the largest negative value by a downward breadth thrust during 2023
the S&P Small Cap daily print seen on March 6 sits very slightly below the Feb. 21 negative print, and
the March 7 negative print sits substantially above the March 6 value
the S&P Mid Cap daily print seen on March 6 and March 7 sits substantially above the Feb. 21 negative print
the Nasdaq 100 index daily print sits 10 above the Feb. 21 negative print for the downward breadth thrust value
the NYSE daily print on March 7 ( conformed to the WSJ stat by charting services )
sits substantially above the Feb. 21 downward breadth thrust value,
though this value is the second most negative daily print seen in 2023
* for the NYSE All-Issues data set, February 21, 2023 was the most negative
daily net Advance-Decline print so far in 2023 ...
at negative 2,337 on Feb. 21 vs. negative 1,297 on Feb. 24
article with wide circulation during the recent 150 minutes this morning is cut and pasted below -
The US housing market is in recession - and the pandemic has created a unique economic headache, elite strategist from Charles Schwab, Liz Ann Sonders, says markets.businessinsider.com Sonders warned inflation could remain threat for years, & recommended stocks that can weather rising prices, recession
markets.businessinsider.com
Markets Insider: Stock Market News, Realtime Quotes and Charts
A stock market site by Business Insider with real-time data, custom charts and breaking news. Get the latest on stocks, commodities, currencies, |
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