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   Non-TechUAN - The variable distribution MLP that could go a long way


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To: Elroy who wrote (203)9/23/2021 6:06:18 PM
From: Elroy
   of 313
 
UAN for Q1 delivery now above $440/ton.

cmegroup.com

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From: Elroy9/24/2021 12:10:35 PM
   of 313
 
Another five year high unit price today

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From: Elroy9/26/2021 1:49:32 AM
   of 313
 
US GRAINS COUNCIL EXPECTS RECORD CHINESE CORN PURCHASES TO CONTINUE


https://brownfieldagnews.com/news/us-grains-council-expects-record-chinese-corn-purchases-to-continue/

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To: Elroy who wrote (207)9/28/2021 5:22:23 PM
From: Elroy
   of 313
 
UAN fertilizer for March 2020 delivery now up to $450/ton.

cmegroup.com

The same month was $350/ton back on Sep 3rd.

Message 33472502

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From: Elroy9/29/2021 12:07:01 PM
   of 313
 
Fertilizer Prices Soar Near 2008 Highs on Supply Shocks, Concerns Sprout Over Sourcing Enough for 2022 U.S. Corn Acres

agweb.com

China halts phosphate exports

wisfarmer.com

China is banning the export of phosphate, a major component of commercial fertilizer, through 2022.

“Fertilizer prices have increased dramatically in recent years, and the news coming from China will more than likely help this trend continue,” said Theresa Sisung, field crops specialist for the Michigan Farm Bureau. “Farmers should talk to their retailers sooner rather than later to discuss their options for purchasing fertilizer for their 2022 crop needs.”

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From: Elroy9/29/2021 6:26:34 PM
   of 313
 
UAN futures price still moving higher.

cmegroup.com

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From: Elroy9/29/2021 9:42:06 PM
   of 313
 
These guys are similar to UAN with plants located in the Tampa area. They also refinanced 9% debt down to 6%.

LSB Industries Announces Pricing of $500 Million Private Placement of 6.250% Senior Secured Notes Due 2028

finance.yahoo.com

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To: Elroy who wrote (213)9/30/2021 3:27:13 PM
From: Area51
1 Recommendation   of 313
 
Finally took out $70 :-)
I was tempted to add some short term options but a little too expensive for me :-(

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To: Area51 who wrote (214)9/30/2021 4:25:53 PM
From: Elroy
   of 313
 
Yes, the option premiums are very expensive.

And I wonder how to time the units move in price. The good news has been just flowing in over the past two months, and the units haven't moved much until the past two weeks. So.......who knows what is going to get them going?

I think they're on their way to above $100, but the timing of the move is beyond me.

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To: Area51 who wrote (214)9/30/2021 4:34:56 PM
From: Paul Senior
1 Recommendation   of 313
 
The comments to Elroy's UAN posts on other threads both dismay and confuse me.

I understand that businesses at all times have negatives or risks that might impinge on stock prices. It just seems to me the positives are so overwhelming and certain -- as certain as can be, presuming no catastrophe at one of the plants or some unknown/unexpected government intervention occurring or something else - that that certainty will manifest itself in large upcoming distributions and a most likely rise in the stock price. Maybe not to the $hundreds, but up from $70. (But maybe greater than $hundred too if history repeats.) Maybe nothing's certain in the stock market. But the probability here has got to be high here, like maybe .95.

Why are not more people persuaded? Elroy makes the case for UAN excellently. Do all those people who're reading the posts and those who comment about UAN have something better? Surely there are some who, when the money would seem to be right in front of them, would overlook their concerns that it's an MLP (if that were a concern.). And no one has said, hey dump everything you own into this great opportunity. Why aren't there more people -- people who temper their risk by position sizing -- acknowledging that UAN might be very suitable for even a small investment? As I say, this lack of interest dismays and confuses me.

Oh well, I'm still a believer and still holding on.

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