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   Non-TechUAN - The variable distribution MLP that could go a long way


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From: Elroy9/13/2021 1:19:58 PM
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If anyone has any questions about UAN the MLP, ask away!

I'm pretty sure the Q3 distribution is going to be somewhere between $3.50 to $6.00. And the following quarters should be higher, as the price of UAN fertilizer and ammonia fertilizer continue to rise, albeit slowly.

The buying season for Q1 and Q2 useage begins about November. We likely get another ramp in prices starting about then, but who really knows?

I'm not expert on fertilizer and MLPs, but I reckon the unit price is going to march higher up toward $100 once the Q3 distribution is announced, and the current margin profile becomes more transparent.
UAN probably distributes $20 over the next four quarters. A $60 unit price seems (to me, at least) to be too low. $100 is more like it (20% yield to start, then the yield will reduce as unit price goes higher, or fertilizer price declines.....)

UAN will announce the Q3 distribution on about November 1st.

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From: Elroy9/13/2021 1:33:10 PM
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Another ammonia plant off line due to Ida.

marketscreener.com

13 September 2021

Incitec Pivot Limited (ASX: IPL) today provided an update on the impact of Hurricane Ida on its Waggaman ammonia plant in Louisiana.

After running at nameplate capacity since the re-start at the end of May, the Waggaman plant was brought down on Saturday 28 August(1), in anticipation of the hurricane to ensure the safety of our people and to protect the plant against damage.

Inspections undertaken since the hurricane have not identified any material damage to the plant and the plant's re-start has been awaiting restoration of high voltage industrial power and utilities from third party providers. Factoring in the anticipated restoration of power and utilities, the total outage is expected to be approximately 4 weeks from the date the plant was brought down.

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From: Elroy9/15/2021 11:31:32 AM
   of 318
 
DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends
Retail Fertilizer Prices Climb Slowly as Shutdowns Hint at Shortages


https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2021/09/15/retail-fertilizer-price-climb-slowly

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To: Elroy who wrote (183)9/15/2021 5:44:52 PM
From: Elroy
   of 318
 
UAN Q1 now $360/ton to $365/ton

cmegroup.com

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From: Elroy9/15/2021 6:48:39 PM
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The good news just keeps coming. CF stopping ammonia production in the UK because natural gas prices in the UK are too high.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Announces Halt of Operations at UK Facilities

finance.yahoo.com

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF), a leading global manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products, today announced that it is halting operations at both its Billingham and Ince, UK, manufacturing complexes due to high natural gas prices. The Company does not have an estimate for when production will resume at the facilities.

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To: Elroy who wrote (195)9/16/2021 5:02:07 PM
From: Elroy
   of 318
 
UAN Q1 up over $30 today. Now $390-$398/ton

cmegroup.com

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From: Elroy9/19/2021 6:15:05 PM
1 Recommendation   of 318
 
UAN for Q1 2022 delivery at $400/ton today......

cmegroup.com

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From: Elroy9/20/2021 3:54:00 PM
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Food Prices Poised to Surge With Fertilizer at Highest in Years

finance.yahoo.com

Yara brings ammonia to Europe after gas price hike, CEO says

reuters.com

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To: Elroy who wrote (198)9/20/2021 5:18:41 PM
From: Elroy
   of 318
 
UAN for Q1 2022 delivery at $412/ton today......

cmegroup.com

This is sort of getting ridiculous.....the Q1 buying is supposed to generally begin in November. I hope UAN company holds onto some inventory and doesn't pre-sell it all because these prices are beautiful.

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From: Elroy9/20/2021 11:15:35 PM
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If anyone wants to understand how UAN converts natural gas into ammonia and UAN, here ya go!

en.wikipedia.org


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