| From: Elroy | 9/3/2021 1:00:28 PM | | | | | | My hunch is the Q3 distribution should be at least $4.00, and might be higher.
We get a $5m reversal of the charges taken for the previously planned Q4 2021 turnaround which has been postponed to 2022.
We get high sales prices for UAN and ammonia. It's hard to say what the prices will be since UAN forward sells production sometimes, but not others. My guess is they get AT LEAST $280/ton for UAN, compared to $237/ton in Q2 2021.
There was some production left over from Q2 which did not get sold. They will likely sell that in either Q3 or if not then for sure in Q4. Gotta wait and see.
And since there's no turnaround planned for 2021 now, we can expect the plants to run at maximum capacity. They've been doing fairly well with production recently hitting between 95%-100% of capacity. But you never know, we only find out about unplanned downtimes when the financial results are released.
Hurricane Ida is going to take competitors New Orleans plant off line for some period, hard to say how long, but whatever the length of downtime it's good for reduced supply. UAN has no such issue (I think) as their plants are not in the path of the storm.
The expected major cash user this quarter is the planned debt buyback of the $95m 9.25% stub that was left in existence when the refinancing was done. They've indicated they will buy it all back over two years, or when the carbon credits get monetized whichever comes first. Debt buyback reduces distribution in the quarter that they buy it. So perhaps they bought back $12m of debt in Q3, perhaps they bought have all $95m, perhaps they bought back zero, who knows? |
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| From: Elroy | 9/3/2021 6:07:55 PM | | | | | | UAN Q1 $350/ton
I am going to start regularly posting Q1 UAN NOLA prices each time they go $10 higher. Today they hit $350/ton |
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| From: Elroy | 9/7/2021 7:30:33 PM | | | | | | USDA Crop Progress Report
USDA Crop Progress Report Lowers Corn Condition From Previous Week
dtnpf.com
DTN's Lead Analyst Todd Hultman added that corn's good-to-excellent rating was "the fifth lowest rating in the past 12 years with rating declines seen in Illinois, Michigan, Nebraska and Ohio." |
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| From: Elroy | 9/8/2021 1:28:51 AM | | | | | | US Nola urea barges hit 9 year high with supply tightening post Hurricane Ida
profercy.com
The largest fertilizer plant in the region, CF Industries’ Donaldsonville facility, was forced to shut down. While reports suggest there has been no major damage to the plant, it is now facing delays restarting with power yet to be restored. Several reports also suggest that CF was checking the market for barges this week. Prior to the Hurricane making landfall the plant was reportedly focused on UAN production, with CF an active buyer in the urea market in recent weeks.
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Tarriffs on Russian UAN imports
Hurricane Ida taking the major competitor's UAN facilities offline for weeks or months
UAN's Debt refinanced from 9.25% down to 6.125%
UAN's scheduled Q4 2021 turnaround pushed back to H2 2022.
UAN's CEO buys 5,000 units at $58 last week
Urea and UAN fertilizer prices continue to climb in the slowest seasonal time of year (right now).
What do you people think is going to happen from November when farmers start actually ordering fertilizer for the 2022 spring planting season?
We're all going to be rich! |
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| From: Elroy | 9/8/2021 4:25:51 PM | | | | | | CVR Partners Announces Notice of Partial Redemption for its 9.250% Senior Secured Notes Due 2023
finance.yahoo.com
CVR Nitrogen Finance Corporation (together with CVR Partners, the “Issuers”), delivered a notice of partial redemption for $15 million of the Issuers’ outstanding 9.250% Senior Secured Notes due 2023 (the “2023 Notes”) at a par redemption price, plus accrued and unpaid interest on the redeemed portion of the 2023 Notes, to be redeemed on September 23, 2021. |
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| To: Elroy who wrote (188) | 9/8/2021 11:53:17 PM | | From: Elroy | | | | Lets see.......
the company is repurchasing it's own high cost debt
the CEO is buying units
the futures price of UAN fertilizer continues to rise.....each day
The company has delayed a planned 2021 turnaround to next year, indicating this will allow them to produce more product now during a time of significant margin.
Ida apparently has damaged the competitor's UAN production facility
We are in the slow season for fertilizer purchasing, the high season begins in November
What in the world is going to happen when demand for UAN fertilizer picks up in Q4 this year?
What's a better investment than these guys? We're all gonna be rich! |
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| From: Elroy | 9/9/2021 5:00:42 PM | | | | | | CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF), a leading global manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products, today announced that it has begun restarting its ammonia plants at the Donaldsonville Complex in Louisiana. Start-up of product upgrade plants (urea, nitric acid, urea ammonium nitrate) will follow. CF Industries had safely shut down all production units at the facility on Saturday, August 28, 2021, as part of its contingency plans for Hurricane Ida.
Shipping will proceed on an as available basis. CF Industries will communicate directly with customers regarding impacts caused by Hurricane Ida.
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Well, I guess that's better than expected. They had a two week shutdown, and are now ramping up again. |
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