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   Non-TechUAN - The variable distribution MLP that could go a long way


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To: Elroy who wrote (188)9/8/2021 11:53:17 PM
From: Elroy
   of 312
 
Lets see.......

the company is repurchasing it's own high cost debt

the CEO is buying units

the futures price of UAN fertilizer continues to rise.....each day

The company has delayed a planned 2021 turnaround to next year, indicating this will allow them to produce more product now during a time of significant margin.

Ida apparently has damaged the competitor's UAN production facility

We are in the slow season for fertilizer purchasing, the high season begins in November

What in the world is going to happen when demand for UAN fertilizer picks up in Q4 this year?

What's a better investment than these guys? We're all gonna be rich!

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From: Elroy9/9/2021 5:00:42 PM
   of 312
 
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF), a leading global manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products, today announced that it has begun restarting its ammonia plants at the Donaldsonville Complex in Louisiana. Start-up of product upgrade plants (urea, nitric acid, urea ammonium nitrate) will follow. CF Industries had safely shut down all production units at the facility on Saturday, August 28, 2021, as part of its contingency plans for Hurricane Ida.

Shipping will proceed on an as available basis. CF Industries will communicate directly with customers regarding impacts caused by Hurricane Ida.

--

Well, I guess that's better than expected. They had a two week shutdown, and are now ramping up again.

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From: Elroy9/13/2021 10:54:56 AM
   of 312
 
Here's a UAN peer companies (MOS) Aug 2021 monthly results, with a comparison to last August in 2020.

finance.yahoo.com

Sales volumes are down, but sales dollars are up a lot.

I don't think any of the listed fertilizers are the same as what UAN sells, but the concept might be similar for UAN, less volume than last year (maybe, not sure why it should be like that) but much much higher prices.

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From: Elroy9/13/2021 1:19:58 PM
   of 312
 
If anyone has any questions about UAN the MLP, ask away!

I'm pretty sure the Q3 distribution is going to be somewhere between $3.50 to $6.00. And the following quarters should be higher, as the price of UAN fertilizer and ammonia fertilizer continue to rise, albeit slowly.

The buying season for Q1 and Q2 useage begins about November. We likely get another ramp in prices starting about then, but who really knows?

I'm not expert on fertilizer and MLPs, but I reckon the unit price is going to march higher up toward $100 once the Q3 distribution is announced, and the current margin profile becomes more transparent.
UAN probably distributes $20 over the next four quarters. A $60 unit price seems (to me, at least) to be too low. $100 is more like it (20% yield to start, then the yield will reduce as unit price goes higher, or fertilizer price declines.....)

UAN will announce the Q3 distribution on about November 1st.

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From: Elroy9/13/2021 1:33:10 PM
   of 312
 
Another ammonia plant off line due to Ida.

marketscreener.com

13 September 2021

Incitec Pivot Limited (ASX: IPL) today provided an update on the impact of Hurricane Ida on its Waggaman ammonia plant in Louisiana.

After running at nameplate capacity since the re-start at the end of May, the Waggaman plant was brought down on Saturday 28 August(1), in anticipation of the hurricane to ensure the safety of our people and to protect the plant against damage.

Inspections undertaken since the hurricane have not identified any material damage to the plant and the plant's re-start has been awaiting restoration of high voltage industrial power and utilities from third party providers. Factoring in the anticipated restoration of power and utilities, the total outage is expected to be approximately 4 weeks from the date the plant was brought down.

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From: Elroy9/15/2021 11:31:32 AM
   of 312
 
DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends
Retail Fertilizer Prices Climb Slowly as Shutdowns Hint at Shortages


https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2021/09/15/retail-fertilizer-price-climb-slowly

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To: Elroy who wrote (183)9/15/2021 5:44:52 PM
From: Elroy
   of 312
 
UAN Q1 now $360/ton to $365/ton

cmegroup.com

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From: Elroy9/15/2021 6:48:39 PM
   of 312
 
The good news just keeps coming. CF stopping ammonia production in the UK because natural gas prices in the UK are too high.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Announces Halt of Operations at UK Facilities

finance.yahoo.com

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF), a leading global manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products, today announced that it is halting operations at both its Billingham and Ince, UK, manufacturing complexes due to high natural gas prices. The Company does not have an estimate for when production will resume at the facilities.

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To: Elroy who wrote (195)9/16/2021 5:02:07 PM
From: Elroy
   of 312
 
UAN Q1 up over $30 today. Now $390-$398/ton

cmegroup.com

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From: Elroy9/19/2021 6:15:05 PM
1 Recommendation   of 312
 
UAN for Q1 2022 delivery at $400/ton today......

cmegroup.com

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