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   Non-TechUAN - The variable distribution MLP that could go a long way


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From: Elroy9/8/2021 1:28:51 AM
   of 318
 
US Nola urea barges hit 9 year high with supply tightening post Hurricane Ida

profercy.com

The largest fertilizer plant in the region, CF Industries’ Donaldsonville facility, was forced to shut down. While reports suggest there has been no major damage to the plant, it is now facing delays restarting with power yet to be restored. Several reports also suggest that CF was checking the market for barges this week. Prior to the Hurricane making landfall the plant was reportedly focused on UAN production, with CF an active buyer in the urea market in recent weeks.


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Tarriffs on Russian UAN imports


Hurricane Ida taking the major competitor's UAN facilities offline for weeks or months


UAN's Debt refinanced from 9.25% down to 6.125%


UAN's scheduled Q4 2021 turnaround pushed back to H2 2022.


UAN's CEO buys 5,000 units at $58 last week


Urea and UAN fertilizer prices continue to climb in the slowest seasonal time of year (right now).

What do you people think is going to happen from November when farmers start actually ordering fertilizer for the 2022 spring planting season?



We're all going to be rich!

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From: Elroy9/8/2021 4:25:51 PM
   of 318
 
CVR Partners Announces Notice of Partial Redemption for its 9.250% Senior Secured Notes Due 2023

finance.yahoo.com

CVR Nitrogen Finance Corporation (together with CVR Partners, the “Issuers”), delivered a notice of partial redemption for $15 million of the Issuers’ outstanding 9.250% Senior Secured Notes due 2023 (the “2023 Notes”) at a par redemption price, plus accrued and unpaid interest on the redeemed portion of the 2023 Notes, to be redeemed on September 23, 2021.

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From: Elroy9/8/2021 7:39:49 PM
   of 318
 
UAN futures up another 1.5% or so today. It's still early Sep.

What do you guys thing is going to happen in Nov and Dec when farmers are buying?

cmegroup.com

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To: Elroy who wrote (188)9/8/2021 11:53:17 PM
From: Elroy
   of 318
 
Lets see.......

the company is repurchasing it's own high cost debt

the CEO is buying units

the futures price of UAN fertilizer continues to rise.....each day

The company has delayed a planned 2021 turnaround to next year, indicating this will allow them to produce more product now during a time of significant margin.

Ida apparently has damaged the competitor's UAN production facility

We are in the slow season for fertilizer purchasing, the high season begins in November

What in the world is going to happen when demand for UAN fertilizer picks up in Q4 this year?

What's a better investment than these guys? We're all gonna be rich!

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From: Elroy9/9/2021 5:00:42 PM
   of 318
 
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF), a leading global manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products, today announced that it has begun restarting its ammonia plants at the Donaldsonville Complex in Louisiana. Start-up of product upgrade plants (urea, nitric acid, urea ammonium nitrate) will follow. CF Industries had safely shut down all production units at the facility on Saturday, August 28, 2021, as part of its contingency plans for Hurricane Ida.

Shipping will proceed on an as available basis. CF Industries will communicate directly with customers regarding impacts caused by Hurricane Ida.

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Well, I guess that's better than expected. They had a two week shutdown, and are now ramping up again.

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From: Elroy9/13/2021 10:54:56 AM
   of 318
 
Here's a UAN peer companies (MOS) Aug 2021 monthly results, with a comparison to last August in 2020.

finance.yahoo.com

Sales volumes are down, but sales dollars are up a lot.

I don't think any of the listed fertilizers are the same as what UAN sells, but the concept might be similar for UAN, less volume than last year (maybe, not sure why it should be like that) but much much higher prices.

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From: Elroy9/13/2021 1:19:58 PM
   of 318
 
If anyone has any questions about UAN the MLP, ask away!

I'm pretty sure the Q3 distribution is going to be somewhere between $3.50 to $6.00. And the following quarters should be higher, as the price of UAN fertilizer and ammonia fertilizer continue to rise, albeit slowly.

The buying season for Q1 and Q2 useage begins about November. We likely get another ramp in prices starting about then, but who really knows?

I'm not expert on fertilizer and MLPs, but I reckon the unit price is going to march higher up toward $100 once the Q3 distribution is announced, and the current margin profile becomes more transparent.
UAN probably distributes $20 over the next four quarters. A $60 unit price seems (to me, at least) to be too low. $100 is more like it (20% yield to start, then the yield will reduce as unit price goes higher, or fertilizer price declines.....)

UAN will announce the Q3 distribution on about November 1st.

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From: Elroy9/13/2021 1:33:10 PM
   of 318
 
Another ammonia plant off line due to Ida.

marketscreener.com

13 September 2021

Incitec Pivot Limited (ASX: IPL) today provided an update on the impact of Hurricane Ida on its Waggaman ammonia plant in Louisiana.

After running at nameplate capacity since the re-start at the end of May, the Waggaman plant was brought down on Saturday 28 August(1), in anticipation of the hurricane to ensure the safety of our people and to protect the plant against damage.

Inspections undertaken since the hurricane have not identified any material damage to the plant and the plant's re-start has been awaiting restoration of high voltage industrial power and utilities from third party providers. Factoring in the anticipated restoration of power and utilities, the total outage is expected to be approximately 4 weeks from the date the plant was brought down.

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From: Elroy9/15/2021 11:31:32 AM
   of 318
 
DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends
Retail Fertilizer Prices Climb Slowly as Shutdowns Hint at Shortages


https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2021/09/15/retail-fertilizer-price-climb-slowly

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To: Elroy who wrote (183)9/15/2021 5:44:52 PM
From: Elroy
   of 318
 
UAN Q1 now $360/ton to $365/ton

cmegroup.com

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