| To: Elroy who wrote (159) | 8/13/2021 11:16:05 PM | | From: Lesser_Ape | | | | | I was actually kind of surprised that the futures prices didn't jump more on the new. I was expecting at least double digit increases, but I guess most people already expected this. |
| | UAN - The variable distribution MLP that could go a long way | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1) |
|
| To: Lesser_Ape who wrote (160) | 8/14/2021 10:58:26 AM | | From: Elroy | | | | | My hunch is that UAN future prices will rise steadily from here. We're entering the "buying season" in about two months. I just hope UAN hasn't already pre-sold a huge chunk of it's future production already.... |
| | UAN - The variable distribution MLP that could go a long way | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read |
|
| From: Elroy | 8/23/2021 6:41:08 PM | | | | | | | UAN distribution hit all my accounts that hold UAN. I wonder if some holders have it on automatic distribution reinvestment, and that's what pushed the shares higher today? |
| | UAN - The variable distribution MLP that could go a long way | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read |
|
| From: Elroy | 8/25/2021 4:21:23 PM | | | | | | Holy crap!
CVR Partners Announces Coffeyville Turnaround Deferral
finance.yahoo.com
CVR Partners now expects its total forecasted turnaround spending for 2021 of approximately $8 million to $10 million of expense for the Coffeyville facility to be spent in 2022, which will be in addition to the planned 2022 turnaround for the Partnership’s East Dubuque nitrogen fertilizer facility.
---
So that means in Q3 they will reverse the charges taken already for the re-scheduled Coffeyville turnaround, and we get bigger distributions.... |
| | UAN - The variable distribution MLP that could go a long way | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1) |
|
| From: Elroy | 8/25/2021 5:38:26 PM | | | | | | There are weekly articles about retail fertizer prices. UAN sells wholesale, so the prices are very different from what UAN might received, but the trend (up or down) is good to follow.
DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends
No Major Price Increases as Fertilizers Maintain Upward March
https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2021/08/25/major-price-increases-fertilizers
|
| | UAN - The variable distribution MLP that could go a long way | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read |
|
| From: Elroy | 8/26/2021 11:00:51 AM | | | | | | “This turnaround deferral should also position us to capitalize on the strong margin environment we are currently seeing for both ammonia and UAN.”
Hmmm, with ~$2.50 in one time charges last Q and UAN at $237/ton they distributed $1.72.
UAN is now above $300.
The one time charges should not recur, that's why they call them one time.
Maybe this company will distribute $5.00 in Q3?
It seem really undervalued to me. I wonder why the rest of the market doesn't see what I see. That sentence in the press release confirms the strong fertilizer environment. |
| | UAN - The variable distribution MLP that could go a long way | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (2) |
|
| To: Elroy who wrote (166) | 8/26/2021 12:07:44 PM | | From: Lesser_Ape | | | | I think it's a nice example of a failure in efficient market theory.
IMO, the lack of attention is because:
- it's an MLP, which has complexities that regular public companies don't
- it's small, so nobody is paying much attention
- it doesn't screen well--it'll fail screens that filter for high dividend yield
- it's in a cyclical market and people are worried the commodity will collapse
|
| | UAN - The variable distribution MLP that could go a long way | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1) |
|
| To: Elroy who wrote (166) | 8/26/2021 12:19:35 PM | | From: Paul Senior | | | | Some possible reasons:
1. If somebody were interested in dividends -- high dividend yielders -- and they were scanning for that, it's not likely the data providers would show anything now other than $1.72 annualized, imo.
2. When the second "dividend" shows up, that will bring the yield very good for dividend seekers. Except that the people seeing that that is new, and so they would have to consider whether it's sustainable over many quarters.
3. People look and they will see: It's not a "dividend" they're getting, but a distribution. Along with a K-1. They have to ask themselves, do they really want to be involved in a limited partnership (MLP) and the tax implications that entails? |
| | UAN - The variable distribution MLP that could go a long way | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read |
|
| |
