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   Non-TechUAN - The variable distribution MLP that could go a long way


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From: Elroy8/13/2021 5:54:23 PM
   of 352
 
And in the "this isn't good news!!" category, the UAN CFO resigned last Monday.....

sec.gov

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To: Elroy who wrote (158)8/13/2021 5:55:14 PM
From: Elroy
   of 352
 
Future UAN fertilizer prices continue to climb....

sec.gov

Q1 2021 is all above $326/ton now.....

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To: Elroy who wrote (159)8/13/2021 11:16:05 PM
From: Lesser_Ape
   of 352
 
I was actually kind of surprised that the futures prices didn't jump more on the new. I was expecting at least double digit increases, but I guess most people already expected this.

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To: Lesser_Ape who wrote (160)8/14/2021 10:58:26 AM
From: Elroy
   of 352
 
My hunch is that UAN future prices will rise steadily from here. We're entering the "buying season" in about two months. I just hope UAN hasn't already pre-sold a huge chunk of it's future production already....

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From: Elroy8/23/2021 6:41:08 PM
   of 352
 
UAN distribution hit all my accounts that hold UAN. I wonder if some holders have it on automatic distribution reinvestment, and that's what pushed the shares higher today?

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From: Elroy8/25/2021 4:21:23 PM
2 Recommendations   of 352
 
Holy crap!

CVR Partners Announces Coffeyville Turnaround Deferral

finance.yahoo.com

CVR Partners now expects its total forecasted turnaround spending for 2021 of approximately $8 million to $10 million of expense for the Coffeyville facility to be spent in 2022, which will be in addition to the planned 2022 turnaround for the Partnership’s East Dubuque nitrogen fertilizer facility.



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So that means in Q3 they will reverse the charges taken already for the re-scheduled Coffeyville turnaround, and we get bigger distributions....

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To: Elroy who wrote (163)8/25/2021 5:35:18 PM
From: Elroy
   of 352
 
Jan 2022 to March 2022 higher today, I like it.....

cmegroup.com

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From: Elroy8/25/2021 5:38:26 PM
   of 352
 
There are weekly articles about retail fertizer prices. UAN sells wholesale, so the prices are very different from what UAN might received, but the trend (up or down) is good to follow.

DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends
No Major Price Increases as Fertilizers Maintain Upward March


https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2021/08/25/major-price-increases-fertilizers




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From: Elroy8/26/2021 11:00:51 AM
   of 352
 
“This turnaround deferral should also position us to capitalize on the strong margin environment we are currently seeing for both ammonia and UAN.”


Hmmm, with ~$2.50 in one time charges last Q and UAN at $237/ton they distributed $1.72.


UAN is now above $300.


The one time charges should not recur, that's why they call them one time.


Maybe this company will distribute $5.00 in Q3?


It seem really undervalued to me. I wonder why the rest of the market doesn't see what I see. That sentence in the press release confirms the strong fertilizer environment.

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To: Elroy who wrote (166)8/26/2021 12:07:44 PM
From: Lesser_Ape
   of 352
 
I think it's a nice example of a failure in efficient market theory.

IMO, the lack of attention is because:
  • it's an MLP, which has complexities that regular public companies don't
  • it's small, so nobody is paying much attention
  • it doesn't screen well--it'll fail screens that filter for high dividend yield
  • it's in a cyclical market and people are worried the commodity will collapse

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