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   Strategies & Market Trendsajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts


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From: bull_dozer11/19/2021 4:17:16 PM
1 Recommendation   of 87028
 

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To: Qone0 who wrote (44137)11/19/2021 4:24:50 PM
From: Sun Tzu
   of 87028
 
I don't see it as a function of "control". I see it in a similar way that I look at multi-timeframe analysis. It is a way to reduce noise and confirm the current thinking.

If I see the interest rates rising fast while a bullish pattern on a home builder is popping up, then I have to wonder which one is more likely and why. This is no different than if I have a 5 minute signal and a 15 minute signal telling me opposite things; I will think about how they will be resolved and move when they are aligned.

Commodities, especially gold, move in opposite direction of USD and interest rates. Occasionally this doesn't pan out. But by and large it does. If you see USD and/or interest rates pulling back, then that strengthens the probability of gold going up.

PS Both of above conditions are happening. So I am not taking a position against gold. But I'd rather have a clearer picture of the levels and timing.

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To: bull_dozer who wrote (44139)11/19/2021 4:25:05 PM
From: sunabeach
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Wonder why Scott uses 10 minute delayed CL data?

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To: sunabeach who wrote (44138)11/19/2021 4:41:19 PM
From: Jacob Snyder
1 Recommendation   of 87028
 
What’s a Dow? Is that a new kind of crypto I haven’t heard about yet?

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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (44142)11/19/2021 4:57:00 PM
From: sunabeach
1 Recommendation   of 87028
 
Yup. Hindu Crypto. Short for Dowry. No need to lug heavy gold jewelry to next wedding or festival of lights.

Ravi knows. ;-)

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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (44134)11/19/2021 5:02:46 PM
From: Real Man
   of 87028
 
Gold has its own Opex and it is next week. Like in stocks the dealer wins the every time.
I expect downside volatility into next Tuesday Opex. There is strong anti correlation with USD much
of the time, so it’s a puzzle. I’d say trust the buck and expect a fall. This is the strongest correlation.
There are other things. Gold is like TIPS, so I guess negative real rates help a ton. Short term probably
gold crashes around Tuesday next week. Enjoying Crimemerica? Easy peasy, no TA needed-g-

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From: ItsAllCyclical11/19/2021 5:03:08 PM
2 Recommendations   of 87028
 
OT - The Rittenhouse Verdict is Only Shocking if You Followed the Last Year of Terrible Reporting

Small excerpt:

In a tinderbox situation like this one, it was reckless beyond belief for analysts to tell audiences Rittenhouse was a murderer when many if not most of them had a good idea he would be acquitted. But that’s exactly what most outlets did.

This is separate and apart from the question of whether or not you like Kyle Rittenhouse, or agree with his politics, or if, as a parent, you would want your own teenager carrying an AR-15 into a chaotic protest zone. The huge media error here was of the “Walls are closing in” variety, except the context was far worse. The “Walls are closing in” stupidity raised vague expectations among #Resistance audiences that at some unfixed point in time, Donald Trump would be pushed from office by scandal. In this case, the same people who poured out onto the streets last summer were told over and over that Rittenhouse was guilty, setting the stage for shock and horror if and when the “wrong” verdict came back.

taibbi.substack.com

Consider a subscription. I subscribed today. Should have done it sooner. Only $50 a year. Tiabbi is one of the few truly in the middle who tries to get it right imo. We desperately need more of this.

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To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (44145)11/19/2021 5:16:34 PM
From: Sun Tzu
2 Recommendations   of 87028
 
I disagree with Kyle Rittenhouse's politics, and based on what I have read, I would acquit him. I haven't dug deeply into the details, so I could be missing something. But from what I've read, there is no way I that can see him guilty of murder. And while we are at it, I would have prosecuted the police force that told him attaboy when they should have been doing the job he tried to do.

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To: Real Man who wrote (44144)11/19/2021 5:23:37 PM
From: Sun Tzu
   of 87028
 
On a daily basis, this chart tells me USD is overextended and due for a pullback: schrts.co
On a weekly basis, it still has room to run.

Gold doesn't just move based on USD. It moves more strongly based on interest rates than the dollar. Both the weekly and daily $TNX charts say it is headed south: schrts.co

And above all, gold moves based on central banks' trades and currency markets. I don't know of any currency crisis on the horizon (I think SA's got resolved, but I'm not following) so we'll take that as neutral for now.

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To: Real Man who wrote (44144)11/19/2021 5:24:43 PM
From: Sun Tzu
   of 87028
 
BTW, of all the people in the world, why would you say trust the buck?

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