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   Technology StocksOSTK, the morph towards blockchain


From: Lawrence Burg2/8/2019 8:32:29 AM
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While checking into stocktwits occasionally, the short format, and easy exploitation by shills is not a focused as i'd like, so SI still provides the most sane platform.

I have been vested in calls on OSTK going back to November. These are often between a few days to 3/4 weeks to OpEx. I look for low options prices (bang for the buck) set up against developing stock price pivots. I closely watch the trading on L2 to gauge sentiment. It's fairly eclectic, unfortunately, but experience has its success. I continue to structure my stock pics against available online filter platforms, tune up my risk management and diversify.

OSTK has done me well since late D18. a small investment leveraged over weekly options has returned 20x. no exaggeration. So I am rolling that forward on the options calendar, looking to further advance my gains as OSTK blooms into the blockchain sector; i.e., underpinned by their positioning and shifting fundamentals.

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To: Lawrence Burg who wrote (1)2/8/2019 8:43:07 AM
From: Lawrence Burg
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trading notes.

up until Wednesday afternoon, OSTK has seen daily bullish trading up to ~1030. at that point, buyers seen to abandon the spread, ignore the ask, and let the trading fall carelessly to the bid, resulting in a slow bleed for the rest of the day, often erasing most of the early gains, and even going negative.

last Friday 1f19 also saw a shake down to $16.25ish which played well for that's days $17 & 17.50 OpEx.

thought? volume is very inconsistent, ill-funded, and narrow. I don't believe there is any deliberate shorting aimed at price points on the chart. there is an accumulation of shorts simply trading this passive-aggressive opportunity.

why...while OSTK is being noticed, there is a wide family of equities moving in the blockchain sector, and a similar broad base to accept investment. so OSTKs p-a market behavior won't find stability until blockchain monies grow within mutual/ETFs.

The takeaway for now should be that pops in OSTK can still be traded with confidence. closing calls for profits. rolling those profits forward in the calendar to exploit anticipated good news, and reinvesting the core option equity back into calls as the price spike peters out, and call prices shrink back down.

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To: Lawrence Burg who wrote (2)2/8/2019 8:57:24 AM
From: Lawrence Burg
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Of note here, is my suspicion that there are people aware of upcoming developments. Notably the GSR capital deal/infusion/vestment, that was postponed from December, leading to price crash, to 28 Feb.

2 weeks ago, on a Friday afternoon, OSTK saw a volume flash and move from the $13s to $15s, counteracting most of a January slide. It coincided near the close of a bitcoin conference in Miami. The lighthearted assumption was that CEO Pat Bryne, et al., made it to happy and let some things slip.

trading peeled off early next week 22jan+, but heated up again running into a Chinese Blockchain conference where GSR was speaking. SPike ensued near the end of that one.

What's the point? while this is all unfounded conspiracy drama garbage, it may not be false. It makes sense in some ways, that this very volatile industry (like the bitcoin bubble) sees sporadic, very emotional buying. squashing rumors and the p-a price behavior/trading seems to mirror that.

I would also point to the most serious spike,Wednesday 6f19, around 1430. huge volume, from ~1M goes to 4M shares by 1500, followed by another 2M through1600. with the price holding.

momentum and rumor was totally refuted by an aftermarket PR which said....absolutely n-o-t-h-i-n-g. Total cya for the market behavior. so...Hollywood here thinks what? some news got out and prompted $100M to change hands in a matter of 90 minutes. not an idle event.

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To: Lawrence Burg who wrote (3)2/8/2019 10:38:44 AM
From: Lawrence Burg
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OK...so what's the play.

Here's me. Holding a mix of 21-23 15/22f19 calls. I forward-rolled some of those to start 1/8Mar19 calls. this is good, because it will span over the GSR deadline

basically trade any appreciation, and wait for the pullback, as described earlierr

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