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   Technology StocksENPH - Enphase, world's leading solar microinverter player


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To: ph57 who wrote (212)7/13/2020 2:20:35 PM
From: The Ox
1 Recommendation   of 283
 
finance.yahoo.com

Trailing PE is over 50 with the $55 stock price. At $70/share, a forward PE based on $1.52 average of the current estimates would be 46.

For the purposes of this post, let's assume ENPH beats the current 2020 EPS estimates of $1.08 and actually earns $1.15 this year. Then, they earn $1.60 next year, beating the current 2021 estimates of 1.52. This would translate into an EPS growth rate, yoy of roughly 30%.

ENPH is in a great position to make these numbers look seriously low, if they continue to execute the way they've been doing for the past couple of years.

I would caution baking into the ENPH cake, much more than we know right now.

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To: The Ox who wrote (213)7/13/2020 5:25:06 PM
From: ph57
   of 283
 
Plot I was looking smoothed over high price in May. High WAS $70.36.

Here is graph I was looking at from TD ENPH page:



The same page DOES say 52-week high was $70.36, so my bad.

TD currently lists PE as 32.82. Close-of-day price of $52.32 and EPS of $1.69 (listed in TD summary) yields PE of 30.

Any insight into class action suits?

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To: ph57 who wrote (215)7/13/2020 6:15:13 PM
From: Sultan
   of 283
 
Any insight into class action suits?
Personally, don't see any merit in the class action.. I expect if they manage to file a suit, eventually it will be tossed out..

FWIW..

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To: Sultan who wrote (216)7/13/2020 6:56:03 PM
From: ph57
   of 283
 
Any insight into class action suits?


For what it's worth, I read some of the class action suit accusations. One was that insiders had done a lot of selling in the days before the announcement hit on 06/17.

I looked up insider trades.

From 6/08 to 6/11, director Thurman J. Rodgers sold 2M shares for average share price of $49. He still owns 1.4M of additional shares, so he sold 59% of his shares (rounding up). This included zeroing out his holdings in a charitable trust (100k shares).

On 06/15, directors Benjamin J. Kortlang and Joseph I. Makchow and officer Eric Branderiz sold 72%, 7% and 6% of their shares for $50/share.

On 05/20, 10% owner Quiroga Moreno Isidoro sold all 100% of his 13.5M shares for $60/share. This guy made out. The last batch he bought that was in SEC filings was 1.2M shares from 11/15/2019 to 11/20/2019 for roughly $19/share.

It does not look good that two directors sold 59% and 72% of their shares so soon before the news hit.

I'm a little nervous. I'm going to try and read their annual report.

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To: ph57 who wrote (217)7/13/2020 7:48:56 PM
From: Sultan
   of 283
 
shares so soon before the news hit
What news are you talking about ? Are you thinking about the lame hit piece by PP ?

Keep in mind, some of these folks were buying the shares when share price was around $1 + .. If I remember correctly, the guy who sold the big shares invested about $20 million or some such numbers when ENPH was bleeding cash like crazy about 3-4 year ago, so he got lucky.. and considering his big stake, may be decided to take his profit..

Far cry from insiders selling during the periods they are allowed to if they see that share price has race ahead of the valuation vs. anything else.. Does not mean there is anything underhanded.. Some insiders have been selling shares actually ever quarter going back few quarters.. Monetizing options etc..

You can always read up on the earning call transcripts and see if there is anything amiss.. Personally, I find the calls have a lot of details and management lays out everything very clearly.. The fact that under current CEO, it has been a very well run right ship since he showed up as a COO.. He was most likely handpicked by Mr. Rogers since they both have a history from their semi conductor days..

FWIW..

Disclaimer.. I own shares.. For now, no plans to sell for few quarters.. I want to see their new products roll out starting any day to towards the end of the year..

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To: Sultan who wrote (218)7/13/2020 8:31:13 PM
From: ph57
   of 283
 
What news are you talking about ? Are you thinking about the lame hit piece by PP ?

Yes, the "lame hit piece by PP" that caused the shares to drop in one day down to as low as $37.81 and to close at $39.04. What other news COULD I be talking about?

And two directors got rid of more than 50% of their shares within a week before this event, selling for $47 and $50 a share.

Sure, it bounced back up the next day, when analysts affirmed their results, but what do you expect them to say? Ooops, we missed the massive under reporting that PP is accusing ENPH of?

I'm with you, because I bought in for $46 at that time, after watching ENPH for a long time. One of my basic investing theses is that people are going to get more and more desperate for renewable energy. I hold Avangrid (AGR), Brookfield Renewables Partners (BEP), Iberdrola (IBDRY), Next Era Renewables (NEP), Orsted (DNNGY), and Vestas (VWDRY). Mostly wind energy. Decent growth and good dividends all around.

I was in CSIQ and did some successful calls in ENPH about 6 months ago.

However, I also owned WCOM, so I'm being cautious.

Yes, I posted exactly what I found about the 10% owner, listed as Quiroga Moreno Isidoro. The LAST batch of shares he bought (1.2M of his 13.5M total) was in 2019 and it was for $19/share. The other 12.3M shares were probably purchased even cheaper. So, this could just have been his taking some profits. At the same time, he sold 100% of his shares. He sold on 05/20/2020, a month before the PP report after holding for what looks like many years. Who knows? Maybe he needed the money?

Your observations/impressions that ENPH runs a tight ship and has good people are reassuring.

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To: ph57 who wrote (219)7/13/2020 10:53:57 PM
From: Sultan
   of 283
 
Well, I guess we will see how it plays out .. Eventually ..

I should make one point as a disclaimer in that my avg. cost is very low so some thing to keep in mind when I am being a bit blase about the volatility etc.. Also, I am notorious in my timing to sell anything.. I have sat on dogs for years and years..

So it works both ways..

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From: Sultan7/15/2020 12:01:44 PM
   of 283
 
SunPower's Planned Spin-Off, Maxeon Solar Technologies, and Enphase Energy Announce High-Efficiency AC Module Partnership for International Solar Customers

finance.yahoo.com

Enphase Energy Announces Conference Call to Review Second Quarter 2020 Financial Results Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time

finance.yahoo.com

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From: Sultan7/22/2020 3:15:25 PM
   of 283
 
Enphase storage is here

youtube.com

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From: Sultan7/29/2020 12:29:09 PM
   of 283
 
Enphase Energy Ramps Production Shipments of Enphase Encharge™ Storage System

globenewswire.com

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