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Incoming space weather has gone from somewhat bad to a bit beyond "somewhat" worse. 4 consecutive Earth directed x class solar flares. 4 CMEs incoming. Rapid-fire succession. The 4th one, the largest. A moderately long period X 2.2. The Carrington event was 2 or 3 in succession, larger but the magnetosphere was in good shape back then. When I saw the 4th one about 5 1/2 hrs. ago I figured a 6% chance of grid down. tinyurl.com In Ben's video just after that, he gives it 8 - 10%. This weekend.
Taking Advantage of a Sharply Changing Environment | Stock Discussion ForumsShare
The "preconditioning" of the magnetosphere by one impact leads to greater severity of the next impact. Of the 8 (EIGHT) CMEs launched, the first 3 apparently bundled together and struck at once. At least 5 more to go.
"CME-CME Interactions: Preconditioning, Collisions and Flux Erosion: How to Create a Perfect Storm?" ui.adsabs.harvard.edu
"As we see increasing solar activity within solar cycle 25, we thus seek to understand how CMEs can interact with one another to produce an exceptionally geo-effective event, i.e. "a perfect storm" at the Earth. In this paper we implement a spheromak CME description within a 3-D heliospheric MHD model and parametrically examine their interactions and assess their resultant geo-effectiveness through the use of solar wind-magnetosphere coupling functions. The myriad of potential space weather impacts at the Earth are reflected in the complexities of CME-CME interactions, with different solar wind variables peaking for differing scenarios of solar wind preconditioning, shock-CME collisions and prolonged interactions of their internal magnetic fields. In particular, we reveal how the orientation and handedness of successive CMEs can have a major impact on the large-scale conservation and loss of magnetic flux within these magnetic clouds, and consequently Bz, due to magnetic reconnection with the interplanetary magnetic field."
Taking Advantage of a Sharply Changing Environment | Stock Discussion ForumsShare