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   Strategies & Market TrendsTaking Advantage of a Sharply Changing Environment


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From: Doug R5/9/2024 12:20:07 PM
2 Recommendations   of 6079
 
Incoming space weather has gone from somewhat bad to a bit beyond "somewhat" worse.
4 consecutive Earth directed x class solar flares. 4 CMEs incoming. Rapid-fire succession.
The 4th one, the largest. A moderately long period X 2.2.
The Carrington event was 2 or 3 in succession, larger but the magnetosphere was in good shape back then.
When I saw the 4th one about 5 1/2 hrs. ago I figured a 6% chance of grid down. tinyurl.com
In Ben's video just after that, he gives it 8 - 10%.
This weekend.

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To: Doug R who wrote (6040)5/9/2024 2:17:22 PM
From: Doug R
1 Recommendation   of 6079
 
And the hits keep comin'.
Probably not a good idea to be very long after tomorrow.

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From: Doug R5/10/2024 11:55:18 AM
3 Recommendations   of 6079
 
6(six)

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From: Woody5/10/2024 2:44:19 PM
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Looks like it's started ..


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To: Woody who wrote (6043)5/10/2024 3:09:16 PM
From: Doug R
   of 6079
 
SEVEN (7)


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To: Woody who wrote (6043)5/10/2024 3:14:16 PM
From: Doug R
   of 6079
 
It's early. And already gnarly. It's going to be an interesting weekend.

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To: Doug R who wrote (6045)5/10/2024 6:31:51 PM
From: Doug R
   of 6079
 
Storm level is pushing G5. Yeesh.

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From: Doug R5/10/2024 9:56:26 PM
   of 6079
 
Holy shit.

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To: Doug R who wrote (6047)5/10/2024 10:05:27 PM
From: Doug R
1 Recommendation   of 6079
 
The "preconditioning" of the magnetosphere by one impact leads to greater severity of the next impact. Of the 8 (EIGHT) CMEs launched, the first 3 apparently bundled together and struck at once. At least 5 more to go.

"CME-CME Interactions: Preconditioning, Collisions and Flux Erosion: How to Create a Perfect Storm?"
ui.adsabs.harvard.edu

"As we see increasing solar activity within solar cycle 25, we thus seek to understand how CMEs can interact with one another to produce an exceptionally geo-effective event, i.e. "a perfect storm" at the Earth. In this paper we implement a spheromak CME description within a 3-D heliospheric MHD model and parametrically examine their interactions and assess their resultant geo-effectiveness through the use of solar wind-magnetosphere coupling functions. The myriad of potential space weather impacts at the Earth are reflected in the complexities of CME-CME interactions, with different solar wind variables peaking for differing scenarios of solar wind preconditioning, shock-CME collisions and prolonged interactions of their internal magnetic fields. In particular, we reveal how the orientation and handedness of successive CMEs can have a major impact on the large-scale conservation and loss of magnetic flux within these magnetic clouds, and consequently Bz, due to magnetic reconnection with the interplanetary magnetic field."

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To: Doug R who wrote (6046)5/11/2024 8:14:35 AM
From: 3bar
   of 6079
 
Are you going to unplug your computer ?

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