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Activity at La Palma is picking back up. Particular asteroid alignments closing in for 9/23 have the potential to bring about a larger EQ and/or an eruption. We'll find out if the last round of heightened unrest there "loosened" anything.
A total of 10 seismic swarms have been detected at La Palma since 2017; one in 2017, one in 2018, five in 2020, and three in 2021. The earthquakes in the previous swarms were deeper, between 20 and 30 km, and were less intense than the current swarm. volcano.si.edu
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La Palma volcano shield volcano 2426 m Canary Islands (Spain), 28.58°N / -17.84°W Current status: erupting (4 out of 5) Last update: 19 Sep 2021 (Volcanic Ash Advisory) https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/la-palma/news/141849/La-Palma-Volcano-Volcanic-Ash-Advisory-ERUPTION-AT-202109191410Z-LAVA-FOUNTAINS-ONGOING-to-5000-ft-1.html
La Palma Volcano Volcanic Ash Advisory: ERUPTION AT 20210919/1410Z LAVA FOUNTAINS ONGOING. to 5000 ft (1500 m)
Sun, 19 Sep 2021, 15:30 15:30 PM | BY: VN Explosive activity continues. Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Toulouse warned about a volcanic ash plume that rose up to estimated 5000 ft (1500 m) altitude or flight level 050 and is moving at 15 kts in SW direction.
ACABA DE COMENZAR LA ERUPCIÓN EN LA PALMA. ESTAS IMÁGENES HAN SIDO GRABADAS POR PERSONAL DE INVOLCAN. pic.twitter.com/CjdR7ZnKzh
Currently, starting at B range and up, an "average" sunspot group will produce 40 to 50 flares during that time. B range is relatively insignificant but they are flares. Rarely producing CMEs while providing some elevation of xray flux. Out of those 40 to 50, there's likely to be 4 or 5 that go beyond B and into the C range. Upper M, at this point, should provide some very helpful information. We're not there yet in the climb up cycle 25.
As the cycle progresses there will be more...and larger sunspots. The potential is not negligible for the rise to more "magnetic complexity" associated with the climb to cycle 25 maximum that one of this cycle's sunspots might produce a flare large enough to produce terrestrial effects rivalling those of the Carrington Event. A large X class...Earth directed. The flare needn't even be as large as Carrington at this point considering the difference in magnetosphere strength between then and now.
It's difficult to gauge the probability and timing based on the publicly available scientific data but if coupled with the actions of TPTB, there seems to be some sense of imminence on an intermediate term (not really short term but definitely not long term) time frame.
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It's doesn't look like the situation is stable yet. One of the data series I have been looking is the swelling of the landmass, addressed as "uplift". This is the data I have found so far.
Data obtaibed from these reports.
volcanodiscovery.com Tues 14 Sept 1.5 cm Sat, 18 Sep 2021, 16:06 10 cm Sun, 19 Sep 2021, 13:03 Intense seismic activity, uplift reaches 15 cm Weds 21 Sep 2021 30 cm
