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   Strategies & Market TrendsTaking Advantage of a Sharply Changing Environment

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To: Doug R who wrote (2813)1/13/2020 10:15:27 AM
From: Doug R
1 Recommendation   of 5213
A Volcano In The Philippines Has Started To Spew Lava. 500,000 People Live In The "Danger Zone."

Also from a warning about fake news

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To: Doug R who wrote (2816)1/13/2020 10:42:35 AM
From: Doug R
1 Recommendation   of 5213
These are the epicenters of vulcanotectonic earthquakes (VT) of the last 24 hours in the volcano #Taal . VTs are caused by the movement of the rock when (water, gas or magma) forces it. #TaalVolcanoEruption #TaalEruption2020\

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To: Doug R who wrote (2817)1/13/2020 11:00:15 AM
From: Doug R
2 Recommendations   of 5213
Few volcanoes on Earth pose as much of a potential threat to human life as Taal in the Philippines. It's a caldera volcano that last erupted in 1977 and which has over 24 million people living within ~60 miles (100 km) of it. Taal has the potential for large explosive eruptions that could spread ash across much of the Philippines, including the capital, Manila.

On January 12, Taal woke up from its more than 40 year slumber, producing an explosive eruption from its central vent inside Lake Taal. The continuing explosions have been sending steam ash up over 32,000-49,000 feet (10-15 km) above the volcano. Ash fell on many towns near Taal and the international airport at Manila has closed in response. Thousands of people living on the shores of Lake Taal have been evacuated due to the threat of a potential tsunami in the lake if a larger eruption occurs.

The ash plume from Taal seen from Himawari-8 on January 12, 2020. (Credit: NOAA)

The eruption has been producing some spectacular volcanic lightning as well - you can see lots of images of the eruption here. The PHIVOLCS webcam on Volcano Island in the caldera caught the eruption starting (until it was taken out by the eruption).
NOAA also posted a time-lapse of the growing ash plume seen by the Himawari-8 weather satellite (above).

PHIVOLCS, the the Philippines' volcano monitoring agency, said the first of the new explosions was a phreatic eruption. This means they think the blast was being driven by steam in the vent area rather than new magma reaching the surface. Phreatic eruptions can happen unexpectedly even at volcanoes that are not restless as all they require is the heat inside the volcano and water.

Updates on the Eruption

Lava fountain seen at the main eruption vent of Taal on January 13, 2020. (Credit: PHIVOLCS)

PHIVOLCS recently released an image of a lava fountain (above) spotted at the main vent of the eruption. This clears up any doubt of magma reaching the surface.

A timelapse of the eruption (below) captured by Himawari-8 shows just how quickly the volcano went from quiet to a towering ash plume. The other feature that stands out, especially at night, is how the plume spread across such a highly populated area, covering much of Manila in ash overnight on January 12-13. The lake can be seen towards the bottom of the timelapse just south of Manila.

Time-lapse across January 12-13, 2020 captured by Himawari-8 showing the plume from Taal in the Philippines. Credit: RAMMB/CIRA/NASA/JMA

This image of the ash plume seen from an airplane near Taal during the eruption clearly shows the convective portion of the plume (the column) and then the spreading out of the material when neutral buoyancy is reached. This forms that classic umbrella shape of an explosive plume. You can also see on the left side of the plume dark grey ash falling as well.

The plume from Taal in the Philippines seen on January 12, 2020. Credit: @TomEHamilton (used by permission)

The Independent has been running constant updates from the area. Most people have heeded the call for evacuations, although apparently tourists are still trying to get close to the volcano to see the eruption. Local residents are also trying to return home now that the eruption as waned some, although this is very dangerous. Estimates of the total evacuees range from 8,000 to 13,000, although it could be quite higher.

The heavy ash fall has stripped trees of leaves and collapse some structures near the volcano. The airport at Manila is partially opened at this point as well.

The most recent update from PHIVOLCS on January 13 says that the strong lava fountaining has ceased. The eruption has now waned considerably but continues in the main vent of the island in Lake Taal. There are still hundreds of earthquakes occurring and PHIVOLCS continues to call for the evacuation of the island and a 14-km radius around the volcano. The alert level remains at 4, so eruptions are expected to continue.

As an aside, Taal is not "the world's smallest volcano". I'm not sure how this meme in the news about this volcano started. It is a caldera volcano, so it is not very tall -- a few hundred meters above sea level at its highest on Volcano Island. The caldera itself, though, is over 10 miles across. This is a big volcano and a typical shape of a caldera. By this measure, Yellowstone is not a "big" volcano because it too lacks a large cone like Mt. Fuji or Shasta.

Unrest since 2019 Taal has been showing signs of unrest for the past year in the form of increasing gas emissions, earthquakes and deformation. This all could mean that new magma is moving under Taal and this phreatic blast is just another sign that Taal is heading towards a potential new period of activity or larger explosions. The fact that the eruption has continued for hours suggests that new magma is indeed being fed into the vent. If larger explosions occur, there is the potential for pyroclastic flows and heavy ash fall from the volcano.

Taal seen from Sentinel-2 in December 2019. (Credit: ESA)

Taal itself is a massive caldera tens of miles across (see above) with a volcanic cone in the lake. In 1965, Taal produced a VEI 4 eruption that covered tens of square miles with up to 10 inches (25 centimeters) of ash and killed hundreds of people. That eruption was from the central island in Lake Taal and was phreatomagmatic -- an eruption driven by mixing water and magma. Adding water can enhance the explosivity of an eruption, so more ash is produced.

Where Taal heads with this new activity will need to be closely watched. Hazard maps for Taal show the danger to those living near the volcano. The large population and potential for explosive eruption at this caldera mean that the ingredients are there for a disaster. Luckily, PHIVOLCS has been carefully monitoring the volcano, so hopefully people will listen when they say it could be time to leave.

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To: Doug R who wrote (2818)1/13/2020 11:31:47 AM
From: Doug R
1 Recommendation   of 5213
"It is expected that eruptions could continue for up to three months..."

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To: Doug R who wrote (2249)1/13/2020 10:17:37 PM
From: Doug R
1 Recommendation   of 5213
Summers in North America have been fading for over 60 yrs.
1957 was the peak year of individual sunspot numbers going back centuries.
1958 was the peak number of sunpot groups.
Russia had their coldest Summer in 150 yrs. in 2019.
If there's a lag time in atmospheric cooling due to latent ocean heat, and if a weakening magnetosphere has been slowly yielding more clouds throughout the 20th century, AND more clouds cool the daytime but insulate at night, then that would put most anomalous high heat at night. Ben Davidson has pointed out this data point about the night time heat anomaly a number of times.
Tony Heller has pointed out that heatwaves and numbers of record hot days have been decreasing since the early 1950s.
The Sun apparently hasn't contributed to any further warming since the 1950s and the oceans' latent heat has been fueling the atmosphere's warmth for decades now.
Running on fumes, as it were.
I think even that's just about over.

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To: Doug R who wrote (2807)1/14/2020 12:45:48 AM
From: Doug R
3 Recommendations   of 5213
January 13, 2020 by Robert
Taal is a GSM activated Volcano
J.H. Walker

–“Should the crater collapse and the lake empty into the magma chamber the resulting explosion would make Kraotoa a firecracker in comparison.”–

This volcano has erupted many times during the high AM (Angular Momentum) periods of the Sun Trefoil Orbit around the Solar System Barry Centre during a Grand Solar Minimum (GSM). An example are the linking dates though the SC20 period of high AM phase of the Cool period, and the similar events during the Gleissberg period Solar Cycles of SC12,13,14.

It has erupted during the gap between Spoorer and Maunder, during the Maunder period, during the Gleissberg period between Maunder and Dalton, during Dalton. It is a GSM activated Volcano, and even more dangerous that it is in the middle of a massive lake.

Should the crater collapse and the lake empty into the magma chamber the resulting explosion would make Kraotoa a firecracker in comparison.

Here are Wikipedia entries about the Taal Volcano

There have been 33 recorded eruptions at Taal since 1572.

The first eruption of which there is any record occurred in 1572, the year the Augustinian friars founded the town of Taal on the shores of the lake (on what is now San Nicolas, Batangas). In 1591, another mild eruption took place, featuring great masses of smoke issuing forth from the crater. From 1605 to 1611, the volcano displayed such great activity that Father Torna de Abreu had a huge cross of anubing wood erected on the brink of the crater.[29]

The dormant Binintiang Malaki (Big Leg) cone was the center of the 1707 and 1715 eruptions
Between 1707 and 1731, the centre of activity shifted from the Main Crater to other parts of Volcano Island.

The eruptions of 1707 and 1715 occurred in Binitiang Malaki crater (the cinder cone visible from Tagaytay City). Minor eruptions also emanated from the Binintiang Munti crater on the westernmost tip of the island in 1709 and 1729.

A more violent event happened on September 24, 1716, when the whole south eastern portion of the crater of (Calauit), opposite Mount Macolod, was blown out. The 1731 eruption off Pira-Piraso, or the eastern tip of the island, created a new island.[30] No studies have been done to determine whether Napayon or Bubuin Island was formed in the eruption, or just a pumice raft.

Activity returned to the Main Crater in 1749, and it was remembered for being particularly violent (VEI = 4). Then came the great 200-day eruption of 1754, the greatest eruption of Taal.

Taal remained quiet for 54 years except for a minor eruption in 1790. Not until March 1808 did another big eruption occur. While this outbreak was not as violent as the one in 1754, the immediate vicinity was covered with ashes to a depth of 84 centimetres (33 in). It brought great changes in the interior of the crater, according to chroniclers of that time. “Before, the bottom looked very deep and seemed unfathomable, but at the bottom, a liquid mass was seen in continual ebullition. After the eruption, the crater had widened and the pond within it had been reduced to one-third and the rest of the crater floor was higher and dry enough to walk over it. The height of the crater walls has diminished and near the center of the new crater floor, a little hill that continually emitted smoke. On its sides were several wells, one of which was especially remarkable for its size.”
On July 19, 1874, an eruption of gases and ashes killed all the livestock on the island. From November 12–15, 1878, ashes ejected by the volcano covered the entire island. Another eruption took place in 1904, which formed a new outlet in the south eastern wall of the principal crater. As of 12 January 2020 the last eruption from the Main Crater was in 1911, which obliterated the crater floor creating the present lake. In 1965, a huge explosion sliced off a huge part of the island, moving activity to a new eruption centre, Mount Tabaro. Eruptions were also recorded in 1634, 1635, 1641, 1645, 1790, 1825, 1842, 1873, 1885, 1903, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1976 and 1977.[28][31] Some of the major eruptions are described below: continues in WiKi


J.H. adds this comment: In looking at the eruptive data Taal is an ideal candidate for a massive GSM T6/T7 eruption which would mask the effects of this ongoing Grand Solar Minimum.

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To: Doug R who wrote (2821)1/14/2020 1:38:11 AM
From: Doug R
2 Recommendations   of 5213
It's certainly got the potential to take thousands of lives, shut down Southeast Asia and "disrupt" all the global markets, shave almost 1/2 degree C off global temp, and lay a significantly heavy blow to already beginning to struggle global agriculture, if the expected larger eruption triggers a crater collapse.

Bulk, long term food storage is one of the first things to come to my mind when considering the volcano problem with increased cosmic ray intrusion.
And I have long considered the volcano problem to be the most immediately significant and imminently impactful risk being faced on the timeline of expected events.
Besides buying in bulk and breaking down into manageable sized long-term storage as an in-house endeavor (one method I have used to put up over a year's worth of foodstuffs), there's several reliable vendors from which to choose prepackaged meals in one year quantities, storable up to 25 years.
Not an endorsement but this is another method I have used with 2 yrs. through Numanna. My Patriot Supply is another I intend to add variety. Again, not an endorsement.
But today's prices 5 years from now...not even Crazy Eddie could match the savings (or earnings, depending on perspective).
With outdoor gardens (weather "smoothing" techniques applied) and an indoor "farm" (31 lighting units from Hidden Harvest Grow Lights -- ((an endorsement)) -- producing very adequate quantity, quality and variety of vegetation -- backed up with solar and energy storage solutions -- my next big step is livestock.
Starting small...rabbits...minipigs...chickens.

and Taal's not the only volcano in town. There's dozens of 'em geared up from muons now.

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To: Doug R who wrote (2820)1/14/2020 4:04:51 AM
From: Doug R
1 Recommendation   of 5213
Still Life: Indoor grown bell pepper on Berkey water purifier (not an endorsement - but I like pure water).
Water treatment is a necessary prep to plan for.

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To: Doug R who wrote (2819)1/14/2020 7:08:27 AM
From: Doug R
1 Recommendation   of 5213
Volcano Live | OnGoing Taal Eruption

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To: Doug R who wrote (2786)1/15/2020 10:54:01 AM
From: Doug R
1 Recommendation   of 5213
From the World Economic Forum:
The global money machine shows more signs of a huge, directed surge toward the transformation to a world of "smart" cities and high intensity surveillance to ensure compliance.
"The Climate Initiatives' focus areas

The Forum's Climate Initiatives are focused on three key areas of work to mitigate and adapt to climate change:

– Raising political ambition for key governments and business to have plans in place to reduce emissions and build climate resilience in alignment with scientific recommendations by COP26 in 2020.

– Accelerating transformational change across key value chains to ensure businesses play their role in tackling climate change.

– Creating effective governance and market mechanisms that incentivize investments to build a low carbon economy.

Global action on climate change must be taken to deliver enhanced national action plans and concrete solutions to reduce emissions and build resilience."

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