We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon
Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
The F10.7 Index has proven very valuable in specifying and forecasting space weather. Because it is a long record, it provides climatology of solar activity over six solar cycles. Because it comes from the chromosphere and corona of the sun, it tracks other important emissions that form in the same regions of the solar atmosphere. The Extreme UltraViolet (EUV) emissions that impact the ionosphere and modify the upper atmosphere track well with the F10.7 index. Many Ultra-Violet emissions that affect the stratosphere and ozone also correlate with the F10.7 index. And because this measurement can be made reliably and accurately from the ground in all weather conditions, it is a very robust data set with few gaps or calibration issues. swpc.noaa.gov
4.2.2. Planetary Wave Feedback [106] The 11 year SC temperature anomalies of ~1–2 K near the equatorial stratopause (Figure 11), resulting from UV irradiance changes and the ozone feedback mechanism, alter the meridional temperature gradient and hence the wind field through thermal wind balance. Hines [1974] suggested a mechanism whereby these wind anomalies could influence the propagation of planetary waves in the winter hemisphere. This suggestion was developed by Kodera [1995] [see also Geller and Alpert, 1980; Bates, 1981; Geller, 1988; Balachandran and Rind, 1995]. During Smax years, a westerly wind anomaly develops in the subtropical upper stratosphere of the winter hemisphere and vice versa in Smin years. Planetary wave propagation is sensitive to the background winds, and a positive feedback is suggested through which the wind anomaly moves poleward and downward with time and grows significantly in amplitude [Kodera and Kuroda, 2002]. Figure 24 illustrates the time evolution of this poleward-downward propagation of the 11 year SC wind anomaly from a model simulation [Matthes et al., 2006] that compares well with observations. Through this mechanism the associated changes in planetary wave forcing (as indicated by the Eliassen-Palm flux divergence ?·F in Figure 24) also influence the strength of the large-scale Brewer-Dobson (B-D) circulation. Thus, in Smax years the polar winter vortex is less disturbed, the B-D circulation is weaker, and the polar lower stratosphere is colder than average because of the weaker adiabatic heating in the descending arm of the B-D circulation. The converse would be true in Smin years. In this way, it has been proposed that a very small temperature anomaly of 1–2 K at the equatorial stratopause can be transferred to the lower polar stratosphere and significantly amplified.
[108] Through the same mechanism, the return upwelling arm of the B-D circulation at the equator would be similarly weakened in Smax years, which results in less adiabatic cooling and hence a warmer equatorial lower stratosphere, as seen in Figure 11, with the converse in Smin years. This dynamical feedback mechanism also modulates the transport of ozone [Hood and Soukharev, 2003; Hood, 2004; Gray et al., 2009] as mentioned in section 4.2.1. The weaker B-D circulation in Smax years, with reduced upwelling in the equatorial lower stratosphere, would result in positive ozone anomalies in that region and hence produce a positive temperature anomaly through diabatic heating. This feedback mechanism is consistent with the observed lower stratospheric ozone maximum in Figure 10 and would also reinforce the adiabatic temperature mechanism described above. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Taking Advantage of a Sharply Changing Environment | Stock Discussion ForumsShare
Temperature.Global calculates the current global temperature of the Earth. It uses unadjusted surface temperatures. The current temperature is the real-time surface temperature of the Earth. The 12M average is the mean surface temperature over the last 12 months compared against the 30 year mean. New observations are entered each minute and the site is updated accordingly. This site was created by professional meteorologists with over 20 years experience in surface weather observations.
Current Temperature: 44.86°F Current Deviation: 12.34°F (6.86°C) below normal 12M Avg Temperature: 55.67°F 12M Avg Deviation: 1.53°F (0.85°C) below normal 2015 average: 0.98 °F (0.54 °C) below normal 2016 average: 0.48 °F (0.27 °C) below normal 2017 average: 0.47 °F (0.26 °C) below normal Stations processed last hour: 59645 Last station processed: Chibougamau, Canada Update time: 2018-11-18 16:27:02 UTC
Taking Advantage of a Sharply Changing Environment | Stock Discussion ForumsShare
Here's a 2018/19 Winter forecast that I can agree with: Winter Weather
Your 2018-2019 Winter Outlook! November 18, 2018 Michael B The air is getting colder, and for many areas, the first flakes have already flown. Ah yes, what looks to be yet another cold and snowy winter is soon to be upon us. The past several winters have generally featured above average snow with frequent cold shots. I expect more of the same as we head into the 2018-2019 winter season. Meteorologists and climatologists have yet to reach 100% accuracy for these forecasts as seasonal forecasting is still an evolving science and can only be so accurate for any given area. There are many factors that go into making a seasonal forecast such as teleconnections, sea surface temperatures of the Pacific ocean, Sunspot progression, Siberian snow cover, analog years (past winters that have a similar upper air pattern to the winter I am expecting this year) and much more. Nevertheless here is my forecast for the upcoming 2018-2019 winter! The first factor I took into consideration when coming up with this forecast was the current ENSO state. ENSO stands for El Nino - southern oscillation and generally it gives a good indication of what to expect for our upcoming winter. Below is a map depicting the current Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly. This basically shows how cold/warm the waters are and how far they differ from their averages for this time of year. The main area of interest is in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Off the western coast of South America, we can see that waters are above normal. This indicates that we are in an El Nino state. The ENSO state changes from year to year and is highly variable in the long range. Last year was a La Nina winter which meant the waters off South America were below normal. Our last El Nino winter, 2015-2016, was nearly record strong and produced average snowfall and well above average temperatures for much of the eastern third of the country. This year I do not expect the same as we have a weak-moderate, central based, El Nino year. These years usually give our neck of the woods cold and snowy winters. This occurs because as the ocean warms in the El Nino region, it creates convection and thunderstorms. This convection leads to a kink in the jets stream which produces a ridge over Alaska, which in turn makes a trough over the eastern United States. Troughs bring cold air down with them and form storms along their boundaries. It is highly likely that a trough dominates over the eastern United States for much of this winter.
Taking a closer look at sea surface temperatures we can see that the waters off the east coast are raging well above normal this year. This is significant because as storms form in the southern United States and move eastward they will encounter these warmer ocean waters. A warm ocean off the east coast screams big snowstorms to me as these waters will act as fuel. You will likely hear the terms bomb cyclone or that a storm is “bombing out” a lot this year as these warm waters will allow for cyclones to deepen.
Another factor of note is the current sunspot cycle of our sun. We are at a solar minimum. There is a weather theory that low activity in our sun can create a weaker polar vortex. You have probably heard of the polar vortex as it has become a buzzword in social media. The polar vortex is basically a broad term to describe the state of the upper atmosphere around the north pole. When the polar vortex is weak the air that is usually trapped in and around the north pole can, essentially, leak out. When there is a “leak” or weak area in the polar vortex the air will come down towards the United States. How will we know where the air will end up? By where the jet stream is situated. I spoke about before how I expect the trough to be dominating the eastern United States and with a weak Polar Vortex, we will see frequent cold shots.
Back to the current sunspot activity, you can see that we are nearing another solar minimum in the solar cycle. Now, this does not guarantee that we will have a cold winter but past years have alluded to this theory being correct. Take 2007-2011 for example, those years were generally quite cold for the east coast. Those all also happened to be solar minimum years as well. Now take a look at 2015-2017. Those years were coming off of a solar maximum and featured warm temperatures.
Now we can take a look at the current snow cover around the Northern Hemisphere. This will usually lead to clues on how cold/snowy the winter is going to be. Above average snow cover usually means above average cold and snow for much of the United States and vice versa. As you can see there is a lot of snow throughout the northern hemisphere, however, I will take a look at the current snow depth specifically in Eurasia as that can give us more clues to how the winter will shape up. As we can see here the current snowfall anomaly is showing that snowfall is slightly above average. This is yet another sign that points to a colder than normal winter. A higher Eurasian snow cover can produce stronger high pressures in the area. This, in turn, can disrupt the Polar Vortex and lead to cold air spilling out as I spoke about before.
We can also look at some years past that look similar to what I expect this year to look like. Two recent years that instantly came to mind when creating this forecast were the 2002-2003 winter and the legendary 2009-2010 winter. These years had similar upper air patterns to what I expect this year. Let's take a look at how those years shaped out temperature wise.
When combining the average temperatures of these two years we can really see that in those years the eastern two-thirds of the country ranged well below average temperature wise with just the west coast picking up a milder winter. I believe this year will feature much of the same.
If you read all that, thank you it took a while to create. But here is the part everyone came here for. My official 2018-2019 winter forecast. First off we will start with temperature anomalies. I have -3°/-5°F for much of the coverage area with -1°/-3° for much of the Midwest and much of the northeast. I believe all of the southeast will experience a frigid winter with much of the rest of the eastern half of the country experiencing below normal temperatures for much of the year. Although one to three degrees below normal may not sound like much it is. I am expecting plenty of record cold snaps throughout the year especially focused in February and March. I expect most of the 1st half of December to remain below normal, then averaging outcome the second half of the month. The first portion of January is expected to be quiet and maybe slightly above average before we head back to the freezer for the rest of the winter. I expect February to be the coldest month and for temperatures to remain below average for most of the east. Next we have everyone’s favorite: the snowfall outlook. If you do not like snow now may be the time to look away.
For snowfall, I have a wide swath of 150% above normal snowfall from Jackson Mississippi to coastal southern New England. 125% above normal snowfall will range just outside the 150% area that spans Saint Louis, Cincinnati, and Boston. I believe much of the deep southeast will experience 125% above normal snowfall as well, that includes the Gulf coast to Savannah. Nearly every factor I looked at points to above normal snowfall for much of the area and I could even see some places experiencing 175-200% of their normal snowfall. The jet-stream should dip enough to all for a multitude of coastal storms to form and ride along the southeast and drop more snow and ice than is usually seen. I suspect multiple big Nor’easters and 1-2 blizzards as storms will be juiced up once hitting the warm Gulf Stream off the east coast. I also suspect that we could see a few March and even April snowstorms as the old should persist long enough into spring to bolster up snowfall totals even more. Much of the northern Midwest through portions of extreme upstate New York and extreme northern New England will experience only 75% of their average snowfall. This is due to the extreme cold that will be present that may push storms too far south to affect those areas too often.
Next, we will take a look at the precipitation outlook. Precipitation does not always fall as snow in the winter and here I take into account rain and ice as well, unlike the snowfall forecast which only predicted snowfall.
As you can tell the precipitation forecast follows the same general theme as the snowfall forecast with some slight differences. The area of above average precipitation is pushed further south compared to the snowfall forecast as I see the abundance of cold possibly shoving some storms too far south to hit northern areas. The 75% of average precipitation was also moved south from the snowfall forecast for the same reasons as stated prior. I expect this winter to be very wet over the south east while some areas further north may struggle to reach their averages.
Last but not least we have a full overview of how I expect the upcoming winter to play out.
Starting off in the blue I expect many cold records to be set along with a few minor-moderate snowfall events. When it does snow it will be very fluffy high ratio snow that will accumulate fast. There is a possibility of a major snowstorm if the trough does creep north once or twice during the winter but I would put those chances rather low at 33%. Saint Louis, Chicago. Cincinnati, Cleveland, Syracuse, and Bangor are all included. In the red, I expect a big winter. A lot of snow with frequent cold shots. As I stated before this area could see multiple large-scale, high impact storms. Further south in the red area I see ice potential. With how cold I am forecasting it to be along with the expected storm track I could see a few storms overrunning cold air and producing an ice storm. Along I-95 cities such as Washington D.C., New York City and Boston I expect snowfall similar to the 2009-2010 winter. We may be talking about winter in this area for years to come.
In the pink, I am forecasting a winter battle zone. Here there will be plenty of mixed bag events. With so much cold I am expecting the possibility of one or multiple snow events in this area. Jackson, Atlanta and Savannah are all included here. If you have any questions or comments please direct them to my twitter, @mikebweather
Taking Advantage of a Sharply Changing Environment | Stock Discussion ForumsShare
Is solar cycle 25 showing itself? It very well could be. Progress into it will be very slow for the next year. The Sun will continue looking like solar minimum for a while but it's good news that signs are appearing that there at least will be a cycle ahead. Not "great" news since forecasts for cycle 25 strength remain very low.
