| From: Eric | 4/6/2024 5:52:42 PM | | | | | | Weekend Read: A battery worth its salt
While lithium ion battery prices are falling again, interest in sodium ion (Na-ion) energy storage has not waned. With a global ramp-up of cell manufacturing capacity under way, it remains unclear whether this promising technology can tip the scales on supply and demand.
April 6, 2024 Marija Maisch
Northvolt unveiled 160 Wh/kg-validated sodium ion battery cells in November 2023 and says it is now working to scale up the supply chain for battery-grade Na-ion materials.
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Sodium ion batteries are undergoing a critical period of commercialization as industries from automotive to energy storage bet big on the technology. Established battery manufacturers and newcomers are jostling to get from lab to fab with a viable alternative to lithium ion. With the latter standard for electric mobility and stationary storage, new technology must offer proven advantages. Sodium ion looks well placed, with superior safety, raw material costs, and environmental credentials.
Sodium ion devices do not need critical materials, relying on abundant sodium instead of lithium, and no cobalt or nickel. As lithium ion prices rose in 2022, amid predictions of material shortages, sodium ion was tipped as a rival and interest remains strong, even as lithium ion prices have started to fall again.
“We are currently tracking 335.4 GWh of sodium ion cell production capacity out to 2030, highlighting that there is still considerable commitment to the technology,” said Evan Hartley, senior analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.
In May 2023, the London-based consultant had tracked 150 GWh to 2030.
Cheaper
Sodium ion cells, produced at scale, could be 20% to 30% cheaper than lithium ferro/iron-phosphate (LFP), the dominant stationary storage battery technology, primarily thanks to abundant sodium and low extraction and purification costs. Sodium ion batteries can use aluminum for the anode current collector instead of copper – used in lithium ion – further reducing costs and supply chain risks. Those savings are still potential, however.
“Before sodium ion batteries can challenge existing lead acid and lithium iron phosphate batteries, industry players will need to reduce the technology’s cost by improving technical performance, establishing supply chains, and achieving economies of scale,” said Shazan Siddiqi, senior technology analyst at United Kingdom-based market research company IDTechEx. “Na-ion’s cost advantage is only achievable when the scale of production reaches a manufacturing scale comparable to lithium ion battery cells. Also, a further price drop of lithium carbonate could reduce the price advantage sodium offers.”
Sodium ion is unlikely to supplant lithium ion in applications prioritizing high performance, and will instead be used for stationary storage and micro electric vehicles. S&P Global analysts expect lithium ion to supply 80% of the battery market by 2030, with 90% of those devices based on LFP. Sodium ion could make up 10% of the market.
Right choices
Researchers have considered sodium ion since the mid-20th century and recent developments include improvements in storage capacity and device life cyle, as well as new anode and cathode materials. Sodium ions are bulkier than lithium counterparts, so sodium ion cells have lower voltage as well as lower gravimetric and volumetric energy density.
Sodium ion gravimetric energy density is currently around 130 Wh/kg to 160 Wh/kg, but is expected to top 200 Wh/kg in future, above the theoretical limit for LFP devices. In power density terms, however, sodium ion batteries could have 1 kW/kg, higher than nickel-manganese-cobalt’s (NMC) 340W/kg to 420 W/kg and LFP’s 175 W/kg to 425 W/kg.
While a sodium ion device life of 100 to 1,000 cycles is lower than LFP, Indian developer KPIT has reported a lifespan with 80% capacity retention for 6,000 cycles – dependent on cell chemistry – comparable to lithium ion devices.
“There is still no single winning chemistry within sodium ion batteries,” said IDTechEx’s Siddiqi. “Lots of R&D efforts are being undertaken to find the perfect anode/cathode active material that allows scalability beyond the lab stage.”
Referring to United States-based safety science oganization Underwriter Laboratories, Siddiqi added that “UL standardization for sodium ion cells is, therefore, still a while away and this makes OEMs [original equipment manufacturers] hesitant to commit to such a technology.”
Prussian white, polyanion, and layered oxide are cathode candidates featuring cheaper materials than lithium ion counterparts. The former, used by Northvolt and CATL, is widely available and cheap but has relatively low volumetric energy density. United Kingdom-based company Faradion uses layered oxide, which promises higher energy density but is plagued by capacity fade over time. France’s Tiamat uses polyanion, which is more stable but features toxic vanadium.
“The majority of cell producers planning sodium ion battery capacity will be using layered oxide cathode technology,” said Benchmark’s Hartly. “In fact, 71% of the [cell] pipeline is layered oxide. Similarly, 90.8% of the sodium ion cathode pipeline is layered oxide.”
Whereas cathodes are the key cost driver for lithium ion, the anode is the most expensive component in sodium ion batteries. Hard carbon is the standard choice for sodium ion anodes but production capacity lags behind that of sodium ion cells, ramping up prices. Hard carbon materials have recently been derived from diverse precursors such as animal waste, sewage sludge, glucose, cellulose, wood, coal and petroleum derivatives. Synthetic graphite, a common lithium ion anode material, relies almost exclusively on the latter two precursors. With its developing supply chain, hard carbon is more costly than graphite and represents one of the key hurdles in sodium ion cell production.
Partially mitigating higher costs, sodium ion batteries exhibit better temperature tolerance, particularly in sub zero conditions. They are safer than lithium ion, as they can be discharged to zero volts, reducing risk during transportation and disposal. Lithium ion batteries are typically stored at around 30% charge. Sodium ion has less fire risk, as its electrolytes have a higher flashpoint – the minimum temperature at which a chemical can vaporize to form an ignitable mixture with air. With both chemistries featuring similar structure and working principles, sodium ion can often be dropped in to lithium ion production lines and equipment.
In fact, the world’s leading battery maker CATL is integrating sodium ion into its lithium ion infrastructure and products. Its first sodium ion battery, released in 2021, had an energy density of 160 Wh/kg, with a promised 200 Wh/kg in the future. In 2023, CATL said Chinese automaker Chery would be the first to use its sodium ion batteries. CATL told pv magazine late in 2023 that it has developed a basic industry chain for sodium ion batteries and established mass production. Production scale and shipments will depend on customer project implementation, said CATL, adding that more needs to be done for the large scale commercial rollout of sodium ion. “We hope that the whole industry will work together to promote the development of sodium ion batteries,” said the battery maker.
Charge to sodium
In January 2024, China’s biggest carmaker and second-biggest battery supplier, BYD, said it had started construction of a CNY 10 billion ($1.4 billion), 30 GWh per year sodium ion battery factory. The output will power “micromobility” devices. HiNa, spun out of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, in December 2022 had commissioned a gigawatt-hour-scale sodium ion battery production line and announced a Na-ion battery product range and electric car prototype.
European battery maker Northvolt unveiled 160 Wh/kg-validated sodium ion battery cells in November 2023. Developed with Altris – spun out of Uppsala University, in Sweden – the technology will be used in the company’s next-generation energy storage device. Northvolt’s current offering is based on NMC chemistry. At the launch, Wilhelm Löwenhielm, Northvolt senior director of business development for energy storage systems, said the company wants a battery that is competitive with LFP at scale. “Over time, the technology is expected to surpass LFP significantly in terms of cost-competitiveness,” he said.
Northvolt wants a “plug-and-play” battery for fast market entry and scale-up. “Key activities for bringing this particular technology to market are scaling the supply chain for battery-grade materials, which Northvolt is currently doing, together with partners,” said Löwenhielm.
Smaller players are also doing their bit to bring sodium ion technology to commercialization. Faradion, which was acquired by Indian conglomerate Reliance Industries in 2021, says it is now transferring its next-generation cell design to production. “We have developed a new cell technology and footprint with 20% higher energy density, and increased cycle-life by a third compared to our previous cell design,” said Faradion Chief Executive Officer (CEO) James Quinn. The company’s first-generation cells demonstrated an energy density of 160 Wh/kg. In 2022, Quinn said that Reliance’s plan was to build a double-digit-gigawatt sodium ion factory in India. For now, it seems that those plans are still in place. In August 2023, Reliance Chairman Mukesh Ambani told the company’s annual shareholder meeting that the business is “focused on fast-track commercialization of our sodium ion battery technology … We will build on our technology leadership by industrializing sodium ion cell production at a megawatt level by 2025 and rapidly build up to gigascale thereafter,” he said.
Production
Startup Tiamat has moved forward on its plans to start construction of a 5 GWh production plant in France’s Hauts-de-France region. In January 2024, it raised €30 million ($32.4 million) in equity and debt financing and said that it expects to complete the financing of its industrial project in the coming months, bringing the total financing to around €150 million. The company, a spinoff from the French National Centre for Scientific Research, will initially manufacture sodium ion cells for power tools and stationary storage applications in its factory, “to fulfill the first orders that have already been received.” It will later target scaled-up production of second-generation products for battery electric vehicle applications.
In the United States, industry players are also ramping up their commercialization efforts. In January 2024, Acculon Energy announced series production of its sodium ion battery modules and packs for mobility and stationary energy storage applications and unveiled plans to scale its production to 2 GWh by mid-2024. Meanwhile, Natron Energy, a spinoff out of Stanford University, intended to start mass-producing its sodium ion batteries in 2023. Its goal was to make 600 MW of sodium ion cells at battery producer Clarios International’s exiting lithium ion Meadowbrook facility, in Michigan. Updates on progress have been limited, however.
Funding
In October 2023, Peak Energy emerged with $10 million in funding and a management team comprising ex-Northvolt, Enovix, Tesla, and SunPower executives. The company said it will initially import battery cells and that was not expected to change until early 2028. “You need around a billion dollars for a small scale gigawatt factory – think less than 10 GW,” Peak Energy CEO Landon Mossburg said at the launch. “So the fastest way to get to market is to build a system with cells available from a third party, and China is the only place building capacity to ship enough cells.” Eventually, the company hopes to qualify for domestic content credits under the United States Inflation Reduction Act.
Some suppliers, such as India’s KPIT, have entered the space without any production plans. The automotive software and engineering solutions business unveiled its sodium ion battery technology in December 2023 and embarked on a search for manufacturing partners. Ravi Pandit, chairman of KPIT, said that the company has developed multiple variants with energy density ranging from 100 Wh/kg to 170 Wh/kg, and potentially reaching 220 Wh/kg. “When we started work on sodium ion batteries, the initial expectation of energy density was quite low,” he said. “But over the last eight years the energy density has been going up because of the developments that we and other companies have been carrying out.” Others are on the lookout for supply partnerships. Last year, Finnish technology group Wärtsilä – one of the world’s leading battery energy storage system integrators – said that it was seeking potential partnerships or acquisitions in the field. At the time, it was moving toward testing the technology in its research facilities. “Our team remains committed to pursuing new opportunities in terms of diversifying energy storage technologies, such as incorporating sodium ion batteries into our future stationary energy storage solutions,” said Amy Liu, director of strategic solutions development at Wärtsilä Energy Storage and Optimization, in February 2024.
Nearshoring opportunity
Following many mass-production announcements, sodium ion batteries are now at the make-or-break point and investor interest will determine the technology’s fate. IDTechEx’s market analysis, carried out in November 2023, suggests anticipated growth of at least 40 GWh by 2030, with an additional 100 GWh of manufacturing capacity hinging on the market’s success by 2025.
“These projections assume an impending boom in the [sodium ion battery] industry, which is dependent upon commercial commitment within the next few years,” said Siddiqi.
Sodium ion could offer yet another opportunity to near-shore clean energy supply chains, with the required raw materials so readily available across the globe. It appears that train has already left the station, however. “As with the early stages of the lithium ion battery market, the main bottleneck for the global industry will be the dominance of China,” said Benchmark’s Hartley. “As of 2023, 99.4% of sodium ion cell capacity was based in China and this figure is only forecast to fall to 90.6% by 2030. As policy in Europe and North America seeks to shift lithium ion battery supply chains away from China, due to the reliance on its domestic production, so too will a shift be needed in the sodium ion market to create localized supply chains.”
Marija Maisch
Marija has years of experience in a news agency environment and writing for print and online publications. She took over as the editor of pv magazine Australia in 2018 and helped establish its online presence over a two-year period. More articles from Marija Maisch
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| From: Eric | 4/7/2024 7:08:47 PM | | | | | | “Long held dream:” Japan lab claims big leap forward with new solid-state battery material
Rachel Williamson
Apr 3, 2024
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Japanese researchers say they’re created a new material that promises both higher energy density and works when the mercury falls below freezing.
The new material – which is still in the lab – is a form of pyrochlore-type oxyfluoride, a cubic, crystal structure that is already being used to develop solid-state batteries because of its high conductivity, flexibility and stability.
It is also included in nuclear research as a potential matrix which can immobilise and store waste, according to the research published in the Chemistry of Materials journal.
“Making all-solid-state lithium-ion secondary batteries has been a long-held dream of many battery researchers,” says research team lead Professor Kenjiro Fujimoto, from Tokyo University of Science.
“We have discovered an oxide solid electrolyte that is a key component of all-solid-state lithium-ion batteries, which have both high energy density and safety. In addition to being stable in air, the material exhibits higher ionic conductivity than previously reported oxide solid electrolytes.”
He says the new material is promising particularly for batteries that need to operate in very high and very low temperatures. The rule-of-thumb is that lithium ion batteries don’t perform as well in sub-zero temperatures, although for larger batteries that depends on which chemistry the manufacturer has chosen.
The new Japanese material, however, works even at –10°C and above 100°C.
“We believe that the performance required for the application of solid electrolytes for electric vehicles is satisfied,” Fujimoto says.
Next big thing? Solid-state batteries are expected to be one of the next big things in electrification because they’re more energy dense than the current electrolyte-based lithium-ion batteries, meaning they can be smaller, weigh less, and — in theory — aren’t prone to catching fire and exploding.
Carmakers, and Toyota in particular, originally promised 2025 as the year when they will hit the road – a date that the carmaker has pushed back to 2028.
Last year BMW offered 2025 as the date its demo model will appear, while in China WeLion and Nio EV have partnered on a simple solid-state battery they say will appear this year.
In home batteries however, US company Amptricity is taking preorders for delivery in the second quarter of this year.
Consultancy ReThink Energy suggested last year that by the 2030s there will be so many solid-state options on the market they will be duking it out for market share.
Challenges endure But there is a reason why large scale solid-state batteries – tiny versions are already commonly used in watches or phones – are yet to hit the market: scaling them up has proved technically tricky and very expensive.
The lithium-ion batteries in the market today are made up of an anode and a cathode in a liquid electrolyte that are kept separate to keep the system stable. If that separator is punctured, which could be via an external force like a car crash, or the lithium metal forming stalagmite-like formations that can punch through, fires can ensue.
Solid-state batteries fix this problem by removing the liquid electrolyte. But by also using pure lithium, rather than a lithium-infused graphite, as one of the electrodes it is also much more energy dense.
This can cause instability at the edges of the electrodes and the solid electrolyte, radically shortening a solid-state battery lifetime. Some researchers, such as those at Honda, are trying different coatings between the layers, but this adds yet more cost and time.
But these problems are also rapidly being put in the past by researchers.
In May last year researchers think they found out why a hot class of silver-containing mineral compounds known as argyrodites actually work in solid-state batteries, while local manufacturer Li-S Energy claimed last year to hit on a big leap in energy density for its semi-solid-state battery.
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| From: Eric | 4/8/2024 3:48:06 PM | | | | | | 
Calpine grid-scale battery, image courtesy of Calpine
Swapping An 800 MW Gas Generator For A 680 MW/2720 GWh Grid-Scale Battery
What happened to make that combined cycle facility obsolete? Solar energy. California has lots of it, and most of it is generated in the afternoon. If you can store it for a few hours and then send it back to the grid as the sun begins to set, the grid is distributing zero emissions electricity, which, if you are at all interested in addressing carbon dioxide pollution, is a very good thing.
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| From: Eric | 4/8/2024 4:21:36 PM | | | | | | 
Globeleq To Build Largest Standalone Battery Energy Storage System In South Africa
2 days ago
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UK company Globeleq, the leading independent power company in Africa, yesterday announced that its Red Sands project in the Northern Cape has been awarded Preferred Bidder status in South Africa’s Energy Storage Capacity Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (ESIPPPP). Globeleq is majority-owned by British International Investment (BII), the Development Finance Institution of the UK Government.
Battery storage is an essential enabler of renewable-energy generation, and the market for these systems is growing rapidly in South Africa and worldwide as a means of resolving energy crises and tackling climate change. These systems provide reliable power supply on demand, even when the energy grid is unstable, overcoming the challenges of intermittent wind and solar sources. They store energy at times of excess generation so that it can be released into the grid when generation falls short of demand, helping to mitigate the need for load-shedding.
Experts say that widespread energy storage is vital to expanding the reach of renewables and speeding the transition to a carbon-free power grid — this is key to helping reduce South Africa’s reliance on fossil fuels as it seeks to transition to clean energy. This R5.7 billion (US$300 million) investment therefore represents a flagship project financed by the UK as part of its commitment under the Just Energy Transition Partnership agreed at COP26.
The Red Sands project is in the Northern Cape, about 100km southeast of Upington, and was originally developed by African Green Ventures, a South African renewable project development company owned by Norwegian based energy firm Magnora ASA. The project will cover approximately 5 hectares (12 acres) and will connect to the grid through the Eskom Garona substation. The substation will be upgraded by the Red Sands project to ensure that full network support capabilities of the project’s batteries can be utilised.
Working closely with leading global battery and balance-of-plant suppliers, Globeleq estimates that the project will require an investment of approximately US$300 million and will take 24 months to construct after financial close, which is expected in 2024.
Globeleq is the largest independent power produce in Africa, providing nearly 1,800 MW of energy in South Africa, Mozambique, Kenya, Tanzania, Cote d’Ivoire, Egypt and Cameroon. Globeleq is a UK company based in London and backed entirely with Official Development Assistance (UK aid).
Red Sands will be Globeleq’s first Battery Energy Storage Solutions (BESS) project in South Africa but the Group owns and operates a combined solar and BESS plant at Cuamba in Mozambique, and is developing BESS projects across the African continent. Globeleq also owns and operates 8 renewable plants (6 solar PV, 2 wind) in South Africa with a total generating capacity of 384 MW.
Mike Scholey, Globeleq’s CEO commented: “I am delighted that we have received Preferred Bidder status for this very important project, and I look forward to working with the government and our partners to take Red Sands to financial close and into operations. Electricity storage is going to be key not only in helping South Africa meet its considerable industrial and domestic demand for energy but also across Africa as more renewable energy projects benefit from the advances our industry has made with BESS technology.”
British High Commissioner to South Africa, Antony Phillipson said: “This is a significant investment in South Africa’s future. The UK is proud to play such a vital role in helping to tackle the energy crisis with new technology that will bring power supply stability and most importantly support South Africa’s ambition to reduce carbon emissions.”
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| From: Eric | 4/10/2024 10:09:23 PM | | | | | | How safe are lithium iron phosphate batteries?
Researchers in the United Kingdom have analyzed lithium-ion battery thermal runaway off-gas and have found that nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) batteries generate larger specific off-gas volumes, while lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries are a greater flammability hazard and show greater toxicity, depending on relative state of charge (SOC).
April 10, 2024 Marija Maisch
Thermal runaway from initiation to propagation and resulting hazards
Image: Creative Commons CC BY 4.0
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It is often said that LFP batteries are safer than NMC storage systems, but recent research suggests that this is an overly simplified view.
In the rare event of catastrophic failure, the off-gas from lithium-ion battery thermal runaway is known to be flammable and toxic, making it a serious safety concern. But while off-gas generation has been widely investigated, until now there has been no comprehensive review on the topic.
In a new paper, researchers from the University of Sheffield, Imperial College London, and the University of St Andrews in the United Kingdom have conducted a detailed meta-analysis of 60 papers to investigate the most influential battery parameters and the probable off-gas characteristics to determine what kind of battery would be least hazardous.
They have found that while NMC batteries release more gas than LFP, but that LFP batteries are significantly more toxic than NMC ones in absolute terms.
Toxicity varies with state of charge (SOC). Generally, a higher SOC leads to greater specific gas volume generation.
When comparing the previous findings for both chemistries, the researchers found that LFP is more toxic at lower SOC, while NMC is more toxic at higher SOC. Namely, while at higher SOC LFP is typically shown to produce less off-gas than other chemistries, at lower SOC volumes can be comparable between chemistries, but in some cases LFP can generate more.
Prismatic cells also tend to generate larger specific off-gas volumes than other cell forms.
The composition of off-gas on average is very similar between NMC and LFP cells, but LFP batteries have greater hydrogen content, while NMC batteries have greater carbon monoxide content.
To assess the fire hazard of each chemistry, the researchers calculated and compared the lower flammability limit (LFL) of the off-gasses. They have found that LFL for LFP and NMC are 6.2% and 7.9% (in an inert atmosphere) respectively. Given the LFL and the median off-gas volumes produced, LFP cells breach the LFL in a volume 18% smaller than NMC batteries.
“Hence LFP presents a greater flammability hazard even though they show less occurrence of flames in cell thermal runaway tests,” the researchers said.
They discussed their findings in “ Review of gas emissions from lithium-ion battery thermal runaway failure – Considering toxic and flammable compounds,” which was recently published in the Journal of Energy Storage.
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| From: Eric | 4/11/2024 9:28:44 PM | | | | | | Quinbrook closes first stage of 2 GWh Supernode battery project
Australian-owned renewable energy investor and developer Quinbrook Infrastructure has announced financial close and the start of construction on a 250 MW / 500 MWh battery energy storage system that will form the first stage of a $2.5 billion renewables-powered data storage precinct in Queensland.
April 12, 2024 David Carroll
Image: Quinbrook Infrastructure
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Quinbrook Infrastructure has begun building the $325 million (USD 212 million) first stage of its approved Supernode project that will eventually host an up to 800 MW / 2,000 MWh battery energy storage system designed to support the data centre and provide dispatchable services to the grid in southeast Queensland.
Queensland-based Quinbrook said it had secured the financing for the Supernode’s first stage battery project after locking in an offtake agreement with Origin Energy. Australia’s second largest electricity retailer has committed to buy the full capacity of the initial 250 MW, two-hour battery energy storage system under a long-term offtake contract.
The Supernode battery will utilise cells from an international manufacturer paired with inverters supplied and integrated by United States-headquartered GE Vernova. The 250 MWh first stage is due to be delivered in the second half of 2025 with further expansions to follow.
David Scaysbrook, co-founder and Managing Partner of Quinbrook, said when operational the Supernode battery will enable the efficient storage of surplus solar and wind energy, aid the displacement of coal and other emissions-intensive generation sources, and provide support for the grid.
“The successful close of Supernode stage one is significant for Queensland as it delivers valuable large-scale storage at the best possible location in the state’s power grid,” he said.
The Supernode project is being developed on a 30-hectare site in the northern Brisbane suburb of Brendale. The site is adjacent to the South Pine substation, the central node of Queensland’s electricity grid where more than 80% of all power capacity located in the state transmits to. The site has three separate high-voltage connections.
“The South Pine site is a unique and strategic location offering unparalleled power supply access and redundancy,” Scaysbrook said, adding that the Supernode battery “will directly address stability issues facing the grid as a result of record levels of rooftop solar installation across Queensland.”
Quinbrook Australia regional leader Brian Restall said the project has been fully developed by the Quinbrook team, all the way from concept, land acquisition, permitting, procurement and offtake.
“It is a case study in how we create value for our offtakers and investors alike,” he said.
The agreement with Origin is one of the largest binding battery offtakes on a MW basis signed to date in Australia between two non-government parties.
Origin energy supply and operations Executive General Manager Greg Jarvis said the contract is part of the gentailer’s broader strategy to grow its renewables and storage portfolio, noting that “storage will play an increasingly important role in the provision of reliable energy supply.”
“This is the first time Origin has contracted the offtake of a battery, expanding our storage portfolio to 1 GW once Supernode and our large-scale batteries at Eraring and Mortlake power stations come online,” he said.
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| From: Eric | 4/13/2024 7:21:29 AM | | | | | | CATL unveils first mass-producible battery storage with zero degradation
China-based Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. (CATL) has launched its new TENER energy storage product, which it describes as the world’s first mass-producible 6.25 MWh storage system, with zero degradation in the first five years of use.
April 12, 2024 Marija Maisch
The 6.25 MWh TENER energy storage system is packed in a standard TEU container.
Image: CATL
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Battery industry heavyweight CATL has unveiled its latest innovation in energy storage system design with enhanced energy density and efficiency, as well as zero degradation for both power and capacity.
Its new TENER product achieves 6.25 MW capacity in a 20-foot equivalent unit (TEU) container, increasing the energy density per unit area by 30% and reducing the overall station footprint by 20% compared to its previous 5 MWh containerized energy storage system. For example, a 200 MWh TENER power station would cover an area of 4,465 square meters.
According to CATL, TENER cells achieve an energy density of 430 Wh/L, which it says is “an impressive milestone for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries used in energy storage.”
CATL describes TENER as the world's first mass-producible energy storage system with zero degradation in the first five years of use. Leveraging biomimetic solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) and self-assembled electrolyte technologies, it says that TENER enables unobstructed movement of lithium ions and achieves zero degradation for both power and capacity.
This represents a significant advancement in increasing the lifespan of batteries and creates the much coveted “ageless” energy storage system, at least in the first years of the system’s operation.
On the safety front, CATL has also introduced a few improvements.
“Powered by cutting-edge technologies and extreme manufacturing capabilities, CATL has resolved the challenges caused by highly active lithium metals in zero-degradation batteries, which effectively helps prevent thermal runaway caused by oxidation reaction,” it said.
It has also established a dedicated, end-to-end quality management system that includes technology development, proof testing, operation monitoring, and safety failure analysis. It sets different safety goals as required by different scenarios, and then develops the corresponding safety technology to meet those goals. In addition, it has built a validation platform to simulate the safety test of energy storage systems in different power grid scenarios.
After a project is put into operation, CATL continues to monitor its operational status through AI-powered risk monitoring and an intelligent early warning system. It calculates the failure rate of energy storage products throughout their life cycle, and thus verifies the safety design goals while continuing to optimize them.
The manufacturer says it has reduced the failure rate to the PPB (single defect rate per billion) level for cells used in TENER, which, when extended to the operation throughout its full lifecycle, can lower operating costs and significantly enhance the internal rate of return. CATL also says that TENER is equipped with long service life, without specifying the warranty specs.
The Chinese battery maker has ranked first in market share of global energy storage battery shipments for three straight years, with a global market share of 40% in 2023. In its latest annual report, it said that its sales of energy storage battery systems hit 69 GWh in in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 46.81%.
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| From: Eric | 4/17/2024 12:30:20 PM | | | | | | Big batteries will undercut gas, but it’s hydro that might lose market share first
Image: EnergyAustralia. The Riverina and Darlington Point BESS.
David Leitch
Apr 17, 2024
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Utility battery power is going to grow from about 1.3 GW in the NEM to closer to 7 GW over the next 3 years. That is clearly going to have an impact on wholesale prices. That 7 GW represents about 25 per cent of the 26 GW of average peak evening demand between (QLD time) 6pm to 8pm.
Peak wholesale electricity prices are currently set by hydro and gas, more often hydro, but when gas does set the price it may be higher than the hydro price (see Figure 7).
Once the batteries are built they will have capacity roughly equal to what gas and hydro together dispatch on average at dinnertime. See Figure 5. Of course there is generally lots of spare gas and hydro capacity beyond what is dispatched.
The fundamental view is that batteries, gas and hydro will compete for market share. Unlike hydro, which is a tight oligopoly and even gas where much of the capacity is held by Origin, Snowy Hydro, AGL and EnergyAustralia, batteries will initially be owned and operated by a wide variety of players.
Like every other market the big guys will try to consolidate market share, but barriers to entry are low, provided you can navigate the connection rules.
Gas requires that capacity be reserved on the transmission line for every half hour of the year, just in case. That’s why the gas is owned by the gas retailers, they rent the pipes anyway.
And Snowy and Southern Hydro typically have strictly limited storage and so they ration supply. Batteries have few restrictions, only the limited number of cyles over their lifetime. But batteries are also incentivised to get a return before a cheaper capital cost battery turns up. So they will want their revenue from day 1.
What will another 20% of peak supply do to peak wholesale prices? I expect more total supply will also lower price. Wind supply tends to impact every half hour of the day, against which must be set the closure of Eraring in the near terms.
Figure 1: daily average prices at dinner time. Source:NEM Review
I’d argue that prices at 18:00 could fall even $100/MWh over the next couple of years as the batteries come on line.
Overall I think that average fuly year flat load prices could fall by $10-$15/MWh as a result of the new battery supply. The fall in peak prices might be partly offset by a rise in midday prices. Whether it is will largely depend on when Eraring is closed.
Figure 2: fuel weighted prices. Source: NEM Review
Traditionally, with the exception of hydro the SRMC (short run marginal cost) has been driven by the fuel cost. Brown coal fuel cost is lower than black coal and so is dispatched first.
Gas has a much higher fuel cost but a lower capital cost and so gas plants sit in reserve and only operate for a couple of hours a day. Hydro has pretty much zero SRMC, but outside Tasmania there is a limited quantity which is generally held back for the highest price periods.
Then along comes variable renewable energy (VRE), except that really the solar is not all that variable. The impact of solar is obvious, it kills price in the middle of the day. The more so because coal has to keep running.
The impact of wind is best seen in South Australia:
Looking at the average day, price spikes around 6:30 – 7:30 pm.
Figure 3: SA average day. Source: NEM Review So how much impact does the wind share have on that peak price?
Figure 4: wind share v price at dinnertime in Sth Aust. Source: NEM Review
Figure 4 was derived by taking taking the wind share in the 6:30 – 8:00 PM window for every day in the past 3 years then making 100 bins of the wind share sorted from highest to lowest and looking at the median price for each bin.
It provides a clearer picture, to my way of thinking, than a standard correlation graph. Just as you might expect the less the wind blows at dinner time the higher the price tends to be. Other factors can also set the price of course so that even when the wind share is 100% price need not be zero or negative.
More wind means lower prices Unfortunately, other than in South Australia wind share of demand is relatively low, only about 13% across the NEM over the past year, with a low of 4% in QLD and a high of 47% in South Australia. QLD is changing that but NSW with a share of 9% is very slow.
So we cant rely on more wind lowering prices materially in the next few years. Therefore we turn to batteries.
Across the NEM supply between 6:00 PM and 8:00 PM is:
Figure 5: NEM dinnertime demand. Source:NEM Review
Note that demand is also dropping as the last of the solar drops off. Over those half hours demand falls by 1 GW.
Into this mix we are adding at least 5 and actually it will be closer to 6 GW of batteries, all of which will be incentivised by peak prices.
Figure 6: Batteries under construction. Source: Renewmap
Significant battery capacity is reserved for purposes other than trading. Even that reserved capacity may have an impact on price but I don’t consider that further here. Say trading capacity of 4.5 GW of what I expect in 3 years time will be not 5.4 but 6 GW of new batteries is available for discharge in peak demand.
Because the batteries will charge from solar in the middle of the day, even in winter, they will have a lower fuel cost than coal, and gas. In the first instance batteries can compete against hydro and gas. In NSW and Victoria it may well be Snowy Hydro and AGL’s Southern Hydro that feel the pressure.
After all, and particularly in winter, it’s Snowy Hydro and Southern Hydro that cherry pick prices.
Figure 7: price settin fuel, Jun qtr. Source: AEMO
In Figure 7 it’s already clear that batteries have a role to play in setting price, most visibly in QLD, but hydro dominates. Hydro and gas both tend to bid above $150/MWh.
In theory 4.5 GW of batteries could displace 100% of 2.9 GW of gas demand, but I somehow doubt they will as some gas will be required to keep running, such as in South Australia.
The batteries could even eat into say 1 GW of coal supply on top of not requiring any gas. At least that is what the supply and demand numbers suggest could happen.
As shown in Figure 2 batteries have not so far competed with gas, at least not in States which are short on energy, and that means NSW and QLD. Equally though it could be that batteries are undercutting gas in South Australia and Victoria because that is where there are already more MW of battery installation.
Figure 8: Operating batteries. Source: RenewMap
And of course the existing batteries will themselves need to be dispatched.
Operators of batteries have other revenue opportunities in the frequency control market. This may mean they are less incentisied to use up capacity in the trading market. Even so I expect they will.
Battery operators need to pay attention to the fact that battery costs are falling all the time. This means that battery owners are incentivised to get a payback on their battery as quickly as possible before they are undercut by some b**tard with a lower cost piece of kit.
Figure 9: battery growth. Source:RMI
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