SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

   Biotech / MedicalUnderexposed TA of Theralase Tech. [TSXV:TLT] [OTCQ:TLTFF]


Previous 10 
To: Underexposed who wrote (3)1/5/2018 2:44:45 PM
From: Underexposed
   of 10
 
This is only the Canadian listing but it does not look good right now



the Slow Sto is VERY low... MACD is fine for now.... the BBwidth shows the Bollies reaching a tightness where "action" of a major move can come about any day now...

note that the Share price is below the 20day SMA (dotted green line).... this does not look good.... not hopeless but I would not bet the farm on a rise in price...

UE

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1)


To: Underexposed who wrote (4)1/10/2018 11:52:47 AM
From: Underexposed
   of 10
 
Again only the Canadian listing but the short term outlook is pretty grim. I will give a complete reading this time.

P&F Chart


Ok, let's start with the purple circle with the blue arrow. Back in December (box with "c") It looked like we possible would turn a corner. You can see in the circle that the blue line had reversed direction and was headed for the red line. we had a horizontal triangle formed but this formation can break up or down...unpredictably and it broke the diagonal green support............ then at the start of the new year it broke the dashed support and it looks like we are headed for $0.19... hopefully that support holds {sjgh}

up in the upper left you see this is bearish triple bottom breakout (not good) the computer suggests a bottom of $0.13.... this is only a guess, I don't pay too much attention to that but still {ouch}

Trigger chart



Starting at the top....this is the start of another decline ... not the middle or end...We are tracking the lower Bollie

The Slow Sto is horrible...a straight line diagonal into the mud... We can expect no reversal of price until the Slow Sto reverses direction and crawls above 20....even that is iffy...for it to truly be a reversal we want it reach for 80... it will be a while til we see that I suspect.

The MACD is turning negative....not good.

The ONLY saving grace is that the BBWidth is muted right now... maybe the decline will be not so bad.

Sentiment chart



Starting at the top.... The Parabolic Sar, which must touch the top of the share price for a reversal to happen, is getting further and further away... not good

The Force 100 is unchanged and getting better slowly... yea! something good
The RSI(30) is slipping negative .... increase bear
The ADX DI+/- is going from neutral bear to mildly bear as the red/blue lines diverge

Ichimoku chart



Again little good here... the big circle in the main chart shows we have a huge red cloud to look forward to with the bottom edge is a resistance and inside is molasses.

Below that circle, you see the share price is below that thin blue line making a bearish decline even more so.

The onBal Vol is neutral..... The CCI is falling in the mud again

Conclusion

It does not look good in the short term.... I think I mentioned that I have a significant position in this stock for over a year and I was lulled to sleep by the "news" ... not any more. I am not a basher wanting a cheaper price. I just want to show anyone who reads this thread a reality POV of this stock's trading.

Hope it gets better... the sooner the better as I see it.

UE

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1)


To: Underexposed who wrote (5)1/13/2018 4:22:38 PM
From: Underexposed
   of 10
 
Okay... here is my Friday Jan 12 report - comparing TLT.V and the American listing TLTFF

Comment:

Before I do this comparison I just want to rant a bit about this stock.

The thing that bothers me is the lack of progress reports on the status of the Phase 1b FDA trial. There is supposed to be ultimately 9 candidates for this trial. To my knowledge only 4 have been enrolled. Looking at their press releases I find nothing since Nov 30/17

Theralse press releases

the last press release specifically on the Phase 1b candidates was on Nov 8/17 ... that is 2 months ago!.

Lots of rumours that I am ignoring now... I want hard news based on Press releases... and nothing is forth coming. There is a conference at the end of the month where they may reveal all but this SILENCE is not conducive to a rise in share price... frankly the opposite usually happens with this behavior... I don't like this silence.

Here is a comparison of my various TA charts for the American and Canadian listings

TA Analysis



The TLT.V chart looks a bit more positive than the American chart. There are well defined resistance and support lines $0.25 and $0.22 respectively... in the circles you see the Blue line in the Canadian TLT.v chart slowing its descent and curving a bit. Not so in TLTFF the blue line is full on bear aiming down.

Here are the trigger charts



These two charts are almost identical... there are minor differences but thy are not significant.

In the blue circles you see TLT.V dropped to $0.20/share and TLTFF dropped to about $0.15 briefly.... Why is this not shown in the P&F charts??? It is because the P&F charts are based on CLOSING values... not low values.... at least they are for my charts... there are options to base charts on Hi/Lo numbers but I have found no advantage using such charts

Sentiment chart




Again the charts are almost mirror images of each other... the only major difference is in those blue circles... The black ADX line is stronger in the TLT.V chart but I don't pay much attention to that.

The Par Sar dotted line in both main charts signals a reversal when it touches the share price... Sigh... unless there is a dramatic increase in share price this will be weeks away.

Ichimoku chart



Again... no significant difference in these charts... the big thing to note is the huge red cloud that each chart has and we are going further under it.

Conclusion

Not much to cling to as far as hope goes. Hopefully that support I see in the P&F chart for TLT.V holds.

There is a huge meeting and Theralase will do a presentation there... I hope it goes well.

UE

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read


From: Underexposed1/18/2018 1:49:46 PM
   of 10
 
My thoughts on the news that a fourth candidate has been enrolled

Ok... finally some real news.... we have another candidate enrolled for the therapeutic dose part of the Phase 1b trial. It has been announced in a press release and not speculation.

What does that mean to me? After all it is about 5 months since the last candidate was enrolled.

1. Well first of all, at this rate it will be at least 1-2 years before this Phase 1b trial will be completed.

2. It has nothing to to with the fact that the tests are being conducted in Canada as such. The tests are being held in Toronto because that is where the company and expertise in this treatment is. Princess Margret Hospital is a pretty decent site for such a test. It has a great reputation in the area of Cancer treatment.

3. here is a great document that was written by Theralase back in August/17 and describes in pretty good clarity what the testing and procedure is for the testing overall and the results for the first 3 candiates (low dose).

This was written before the second part of the testing what completed for the first person enrolled in the therapeutic dose.

Theralase Technologies Inc. Corporate Presentation – 3Q2017

Times were pretty heady back then... we had started the second section of the trial... the first low dose part satisfied the safety and tolerability of the low dose and in fact showed efficacy.... All was good, speculation ran wild.

4. This is a cure for bladder cancer!!! Even the McFarland team had posted something like "Bladder Cancer days are numbered" I may not have the quote 100% accurate but that was the sentiment.

But September and October passed with no news of the 4th patient or future enrollment of candidates. The speculation and rumour ran wild...they were angry that such a slam dunk treatment was not being taken up by big Pharma, after all we killed bladder cancer on the first trial candidates...right????

5. Then in the first week of November... a very important document was finally published

Theralase Provides Interim Data Analysis on Anti-Cancer Treatment for First Four Patients Treated

here is a quote from the document

Interim Data Results:

1. As previously reported, the first three patients treated at the MRSD successfully achieved the primary, secondary and exploratory outcome measures at 90 days post treatment.

2. Patient four treated at the Therapeutic Dose successfully achieved the primary, secondary and exploratory outcome measures at 90 days post treatment. During the 90 day cystoscopy analysis, patient number four’s bladder surface wall was observed to be red and inflamed. The patient will continue to be monitored to see if this condition resolves.

3. Although not a pre-defined outcome measure of the Study, patient one, two and three have successfully achieved the primary and secondary outcome measures at 180 days post treatment.

4. Although not a pre-defined outcome measure of the Study, patient one, two and three have not achieved the exploratory outcome measure at 180 days post treatment.
Ahhhh... this is not the slam dunk it appeared to be.

The bolding is mine for emphasis
and to draw attention to the fact that there are issues here... It is not as cut/dried as treating mice. What worked for 90 days has not worked for 180 days. Were there was no significant problems of discomfort for the first 3 candidates at low dosage there seems to be issues with the 4th candidate at high dose...

So... it seems the cancer has recurred.... in patients 1,2,3 but the upside was that the disease was not made worse. Apparently the recurrance might be from other sources such as the upper urinary track.

6. I doubt that most speculators on this stock read this document to completion... just my feelings about it. I didn't read it as carefully as I did this time...my bad.

I have a strong science background in Chemistry. It is not in Cancer research but I think I can follow most jargon free discussions on most science subjects. That is what attracted me to Theralase and their treatment for bladder cancer... It made sense to me.

7. Now... if I were confronted with this type of information at 180 days into the tests... I doubt I would blast away with the enrollment and testing of additional candidates with the same procedure.

I would evaluate the information in detail with other members of the team and try to come up with a strategy to make things better. Insanity would be to try the same thing over and over again and expect things to be different.

Final thoughts

8. The silence has not had a good effect on the stock price, that is obvious. But really what could they say? I find this announcement encouraging. Perhaps they will modify the procedure to get a better result... I imagine they would have had to get permission from FDA to do anything that was seriously different from past testing and that in itself would take time.

I am long in this stock... I have a significant holding that I have hung onto for over 1.5 years. I am not about to bail out on this company now.

UE

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read


From: Underexposed1/28/2018 3:30:24 PM
1 Recommendation   of 10
 
Well it is about time that I updated the charts for TLT.V

Here they are



As can be seen there is little changed in the P&F chart. we have a support at $0.22 and a resistance at $0.25.

Both are strong and both have been tested when you look at the Trigger chart. The Blue arrow shows that the share price opened below $0.22 but eventually by the end of that day it closed above $0.22 and the P&F chart is based on the closed value.

The Slow Sto is looking pretty good actually. It has dug itself out of the mud and is reaching above 50.... this is the best sign of a mildly bull move that we have seen for months.

The MACD is mildly positive... supporting the Slow Sto move.

All that is missing is a dramatic rise in the BBWidth which would signal a bullish move in the price.

So there is hope that this meeting next week will be a catalyst for a bull move.... that would be welcome

UE

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read


From: Underexposed2/26/2018 1:35:59 PM
2 Recommendations   of 10
 
I have been away for a while, partially because I took a bit of a vacation during the correction to the market and partially because there was really not much to say about Theralase stock

The good news is the Phase 1 trials are moving forward finally with a 5th and 6th patient has been enrolled and treated.

This says to me that the problems with inflammation and reoccurrence of the tumours which are treatable caused the team to give sober thought to what they were doing. These problems have nothing to do with the goals of Phase 1 testing... they have already demonstrated the safety of the procedure, the tolerance of the doseage and some efficacy but to continue to treat at the higher dose and get the problems of inflammation of candidate 3 over and over again does not make sense to me.

However, the treatment of 2 more candidates NOW indicates to me they think they have a solution to the problems and are applying their solution to 2 more candidates... this is positive news to me.

Anyone who thought this treatment was a slam dunk and that Theralase should be actively seeking Big Pharma, were dreaming in technicolor. Just because rat tests were so positive does not mean the procedure should work flawlessly in humans. That is why fast-tracking the testing at this point is not in the cards... Phase 1 testing alone will go on for at least another year IMHO.

Ok, I got that out of my system, let's look at the status of the share price since the additional candidates have been treated.

Here is my first 2 charts



Some people are shocked at the halting of the share price rise of late. I am not...

Look at the P&F chart... the share price ran into a pretty well established resistance at $0.25. This resistance is defined by 4 points and this is pretty strong... it is no wonder that the share price rise that took place slowly over the month of Feb, stalled when it reached $0.25 Even if it passed that level it would have tough sledding until it passed $0.30.

The support for this price is a $0.22... it is currently up in the air as to how strong this will be... there is secondary support at $0.20 which is weaker.

The column Moving Averages (5 and 10 columns taken at their midpoints) are still far apart and the lower blue line does not show a reversal yet... so this is still mildly bearish despite that latest rise in price. The good news is that the distance in rows is showing a decline as shown by the numbers in this chart. So there is hope of a change of direction of the blue MA and crossing the red MA would be bullish... but I don't expect to see that until late March.

the Trigger chart to the right is interesting... this last rise was sort of head fake for an immediate breakout.

Starting with the Slow Sto, things looked rather bullish as it charged up to 80 but now it has reversed direction. It is still bullish by mildly bullish now as it could still go above 80 in the near future.

You can see I have added the signal line to the MACD... I do NOT use it to find buy/sell signals but rather I use it to give clues as to a potential reversal in the MACD... the MACD is bullish but only mildly bullish as it looks to me to be reversing direction but not a dramatic drop.

It is the BBwidth that shows the head fake.

See the rather muted response to the rise in price in Feb. There was no sudden rise in slope of the BBwidth... hence the rise and hitting the resistance says to me that it is not surprising it failed to breach that line.

Having said this in the main chart we see the price is bouncing off the top of the 50daySMA and the 20daySMA (dotted green) is arcing towards the 50daySMA and crossing it will be good.

Here are the next two charts



these two charts are very interesting

the sentiment chart on the left starting at the top circle

the Par Sar is bullish with its dotted red line far below the share price. This suggests that I don't expect a fall to the supports in the near term and it could mean a sign of continued bullish rise.

the Force (30) is neutral. It has been so for all of Feb... being zero and flat

The RSI(30) is neutral bearish as it is still under 50 but barely so and is relatively flat lately.

The ADX DI+/- is neutral... see how the red and green lines are twisted together... this is a sign of indecision

the chart to the right, the ichimoku chart is VERY revealing.

the upper circle shows that the share price has entered a red cloud. This is mildly bullish as it shows an attempt to get out from under these clouds. It will NOT be easy to move through this cloud as a red cloud is like molasses.

Another positive is the thin red/blue lines within that circle... the blue is rising nicely above the red one mildly bullish.

Also not the lower edge of the red cloud is now a support... and it is about $0.22 and if you look back to the P&F chart this confirms the support line I drew there.

The On Bal Vol is dead assed neutral

The CCI is currently bullish.

Conclusion

I go through this exercise to get a consensus of all the indications I see. Indicators often lie to us but they don't do so at the same time if you have a good selection of them.

BULLISH - 2
Mildly Bullish - 4
Neutral Bullish - 0
Neutral - 3
Neutral Bearish - 1
Mildly Bearish - 1
Bearish - 0


After cancelling opposites we get.

BULLISH - 2
Mildly Bullish - 3
Neutral Bullish - 0
Neutral - 2
Neutral Bearish - 0
Mildly Bearish - 0
Bearish - 0


In the short term things look reasonable for a slow rise in price to hopefully challenge the upper edge of the red cloud. I say slow rise because being in a red cloud things don't change fast.

If we make it out of this cloud then things will look very promising but until then we must be patient.

UE

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read


From: Underexposed3/16/2018 3:48:46 PM
   of 10
 
This is the last post on this thread.

I have other interests and maintaining this thread takes up a significant amount of time, especially now with the volatility of the markets under Trump's leadership (?).

I don't think I have anything to prove anymore as far as my approach to TA. However, I have been disappointed in the lack of participation from the reader point of view. It would have been a different story if this thread generated a lot of discussion but for some reason that has not happened. I am sure there are lurkers here that read the content of the thread but I have no way of knowing it 3 people are reading this or 300... so I feel I am talking to the wall.

It has been an interesting experiment for me, not without controversy on other threads but I think I will leave to devote more time to things that interest me more at this time.

I am still long in TLT.V and actually there are signs of a recovery which would be nice.

TLT.V chart

It is still a long way off from being a profit making stock but the changes in management as well as addition of more candidates for testing makes me feel more positive right now

Take care to my readers and good trading.

Underexposed

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read
Previous 10