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   Biotech / MedicalUnderexposed TA of Theralase Tech. [TSXV:TLT] [OTCQ:TLTFF]


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To: Underexposed who wrote (1)12/29/2017 9:36:07 AM
From: Underexposed
   of 10
 
Don't be fooled when someone comments on a minor abnormality such as an uptick in price or volume. Usually this is meaningless unless the abnormality becomes a consistent change in pattern.

The problem with stocks that are sub-$0.50/share or even sub-$1.00/share stocks is that effort must be made to keep the interest in the stock constantly in front of the potential buyer.

I have drunk the Koolaid with respect to this stock in the past and ignored signs I saw in the charts or ignored the charts completely..... Big Mistake!! I missed at least 2 opportunities to take decent profits over the past 18 months.

I will say at the outset that I do believe in this stock. I like the science behind it.... It makes sense to me and I do have a science background in my working past... I was a working chemist. An analytical environmental chemist for a while in my employment history/education.

My background has nothing to do with Biology but I feel that can read intelligently the information on the Theralase website and I saw NO fluff... very little marketing speak that raised red flags. That was why I bought in at first. I was asked by a friend to give my thoughts on this company and I liked what I saw... still do as a matter of fact. I don't invest in sub-$0.50 stocks normally and truth be known I have only made money on one stock that shot from $0.20/share to $1.20 in a week... very nice and I was smart enough to get out with a profit then.

In the Canadian Sub-$1.00 world you have to be careful to avoid Pump/dump stocks. I have written a huge document on how to spot a PUMP/DUMP stock. They are generally characterized by a specific language in chat rooms, a dramatic rise in price with huge volumes, the rise generally last only a few days with lots of talk of going to the moon (as the pumpers dump their stock and take their gains), ending with the stock price/volumes falling back to normally anemic levels.

I don't see TLT.V as a P&D stock... but I see a lot of speculation junk that is designed to generate interest but has no or little basis in fact... Charting and a deaf ear to such nonsense is much better.

Let's look at the two listings today.... I should be doing this at the end of the day but I don't expect a lot of change today... so waiting 8 hours is probably not going to change much.... If it does.... well you will hear from me again today :)

*****************************************************************************************************************************

Ok... I am off my soapbox now.

We have 2 listings....the Canadian TLT.V and the American TLTFF. The difference in price is obviously due to the change in the Exchange Rate of the USD/CDN dollars. If you apply the exchange rate you will find that the two listings agree pretty closely... as they should.

Does that mean that both charts are the same? Nopes... there are minor variances that occur... if they are significant they will catch up to one another eventually.

Which stock is the better stock to watch?

Well Theralase is a Canadian company... the TSXV does not have the same negativity as the American OTCB. American investors in general pay little attention to stocks under $5.00 never mind under $1.00. Canadian investors have less of a bias there.

Let us look at the last month of trading on both listings... by the numbers.



Canadian Listing - TLT.V
American Listing - TLTFF









Date
Close
Volume
Close
Volume









12/28/2017
0.245
126,195
0.201
18,550
12/27/2017
0.255
322,504
0.190
37,065
12/26/2017
No Trading - Boxing Day Holiday 0.200
32,580
12/22/2017
0.245
331,673
0.195
45,540
12/21/2017
0.245
310,897
0.187
28,800
12/20/2017
0.240
223,875
0.185
140
12/19/2017
0.245
159,624
0.193
98,034
12/18/2017
0.245
268,413
0.187
101,762
12/15/2017
0.250
157,605
0.200
6,700
12/14/2017
0.245
400,611
0.193
7,000
12/13/2017
0.235
330,580
0.182
213,683
12/12/2017
0.245
339,857
0.190
67,158
12/11/2017
0.250
272,225
0.191
8,944
12/8/2017
0.245
659,941
0.199
14,335
12/7/2017
0.260
230,320
0.195
67,643
12/6/2017
0.260
198,266
0.214
67,055
12/5/2017
0.280
123,925
0.215
14,200
12/4/2017
0.270
415,814
0.211
89,783
12/1/2017
0.250
403,730
0.202
2,600
11/30/2017
0.255
670,247
0.195
541,952
11/29/2017
0.265
468,710
0.205
337,000


A couple of things stand out in this chart.... In Canada trades are made to a minimum of $0.005. In the USA trades can be made to $0.0001. I really don't understand why... the money is insignificant unless you are buying millions of shares.... this difference is not limited to Theralase at all... it is the same on all stocks... it is just a curiosity to me.

The second thing (and this IS important) is that the daily traded volumes are usually an order of magnitude greater for the Canadian Stock versus the American listing.

Why is this significant? From a charting point of view... the chart with the higher volumes are much more reliable in their formations.

SO... if I was an American investing in Theralase on the OTCB... I would pay huge attention to what was going on with the heavily traded Canadian listing. The Canadian chart should be more indicative of what is really going on and the American listing will eventually move in the same direction.

This is enough for an early post.... I will do the charts at the end of the trading day.

Good Trading
UE

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From: Underexposed12/31/2017 12:52:56 PM
   of 10
 
This my weekly update of charts for Friday, Dec 29.

Let's have a look at the P&F charts first


There are a couple of differences between the 2 charts

In the Canadian Listing TLT.V the share price broke through a pretty decent Support at $0.25 and formed a triple bottom breakout...whereas the TLTFF just formed a double bottom breakout and fell to a support... which is not as bearish as the Canadian Listing.

However both formations have lost their punch now. Why? Because look at when the formation was made in the circles at the top of each chart.... Dec 12-13.... this is almost 3 weeks ago... if this was really a bear signal you would have seen more decline in share price by now... it is still a bearish sign... but very very weak. IMHO

I am encouraged by the column moving average in TLT.V... there is a hook in the blue line and the red line is reaching for it... still bearish but it shows some future promise. The TLTFF chart has the blue/red lines are far apart and not converging... the TLSFF is much more bearish on that stand point

Here is the trigger chart



The TLT.V chart with the much higher trading volumes is much more defined that the TLTFF chart. This is probably due to the far greater trading that takes place on the Canadian side

The TLTFF chart is a bit erratic going above/below the 20daySMA which in itself is not bad but I think the fact that the TLT.V being just beneath the 20day SMA consistently is easier to read... Why? well if the share price of the TLT.V chart creeps above the 20daySMA this would be more significant compared to the TLTFF chart which could easily jump back. Subtle but could be telling eventually.

The Slow Sto, MACD and BBWidth are pretty consistent... ignore the little bumps in the slow sto of the TLTFF. We are LOOKING for a rise above 20 before we can get hopes up for a price advance.

The dotted green line is pretty consistent for both charts... this is the position where I would expect the BBwidth to fall to before a major event will occur.... I am guessing 5-10 working days from now.

Here is the sentiment charts



We are entering a BBtunnel...These two charts are tracking each other rather well... eliminating the high/lows of candlesticks and showing just the close makes the patterns very similar. I like the position of the Par Sar in both charts... Assuming no violent downturn the Par Sar will hit the top of the share prices in the throat of the bollies... which would be bullish.

Nothing interesting in the Force 100, RSI(30) and ADX DI+/-... all are the same and mildly bearish for now.

Lastly here are the Ichmoku charts



there is virtually no difference between these charts. It shows that a breakout to the positive will not be a great "fly to the moon" breakout... it will be a modest one of a few cents before the share price runs smack into the lower edge of a red cloud... the lower edge will be a resistance slowing the gains down.

In the circle you see the thin red/blue lines... you want the red below the blue lines which won't happen soon. This is pretty subtle but the share price is rising above the blue line... encouraging.

Conclusion

Same old/same old............ no signs of a marvelous reversal at this point.

Still wait and see but as I said earlier that could be 5-10 business days from now.

UE

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To: Underexposed who wrote (3)1/5/2018 2:44:45 PM
From: Underexposed
   of 10
 
This is only the Canadian listing but it does not look good right now



the Slow Sto is VERY low... MACD is fine for now.... the BBwidth shows the Bollies reaching a tightness where "action" of a major move can come about any day now...

note that the Share price is below the 20day SMA (dotted green line).... this does not look good.... not hopeless but I would not bet the farm on a rise in price...

UE

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To: Underexposed who wrote (4)1/10/2018 11:52:47 AM
From: Underexposed
   of 10
 
Again only the Canadian listing but the short term outlook is pretty grim. I will give a complete reading this time.

P&F Chart


Ok, let's start with the purple circle with the blue arrow. Back in December (box with "c") It looked like we possible would turn a corner. You can see in the circle that the blue line had reversed direction and was headed for the red line. we had a horizontal triangle formed but this formation can break up or down...unpredictably and it broke the diagonal green support............ then at the start of the new year it broke the dashed support and it looks like we are headed for $0.19... hopefully that support holds {sjgh}

up in the upper left you see this is bearish triple bottom breakout (not good) the computer suggests a bottom of $0.13.... this is only a guess, I don't pay too much attention to that but still {ouch}

Trigger chart



Starting at the top....this is the start of another decline ... not the middle or end...We are tracking the lower Bollie

The Slow Sto is horrible...a straight line diagonal into the mud... We can expect no reversal of price until the Slow Sto reverses direction and crawls above 20....even that is iffy...for it to truly be a reversal we want it reach for 80... it will be a while til we see that I suspect.

The MACD is turning negative....not good.

The ONLY saving grace is that the BBWidth is muted right now... maybe the decline will be not so bad.

Sentiment chart



Starting at the top.... The Parabolic Sar, which must touch the top of the share price for a reversal to happen, is getting further and further away... not good

The Force 100 is unchanged and getting better slowly... yea! something good
The RSI(30) is slipping negative .... increase bear
The ADX DI+/- is going from neutral bear to mildly bear as the red/blue lines diverge

Ichimoku chart



Again little good here... the big circle in the main chart shows we have a huge red cloud to look forward to with the bottom edge is a resistance and inside is molasses.

Below that circle, you see the share price is below that thin blue line making a bearish decline even more so.

The onBal Vol is neutral..... The CCI is falling in the mud again

Conclusion

It does not look good in the short term.... I think I mentioned that I have a significant position in this stock for over a year and I was lulled to sleep by the "news" ... not any more. I am not a basher wanting a cheaper price. I just want to show anyone who reads this thread a reality POV of this stock's trading.

Hope it gets better... the sooner the better as I see it.

UE

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To: Underexposed who wrote (5)1/13/2018 4:22:38 PM
From: Underexposed
   of 10
 
Okay... here is my Friday Jan 12 report - comparing TLT.V and the American listing TLTFF

Comment:

Before I do this comparison I just want to rant a bit about this stock.

The thing that bothers me is the lack of progress reports on the status of the Phase 1b FDA trial. There is supposed to be ultimately 9 candidates for this trial. To my knowledge only 4 have been enrolled. Looking at their press releases I find nothing since Nov 30/17

Theralse press releases

the last press release specifically on the Phase 1b candidates was on Nov 8/17 ... that is 2 months ago!.

Lots of rumours that I am ignoring now... I want hard news based on Press releases... and nothing is forth coming. There is a conference at the end of the month where they may reveal all but this SILENCE is not conducive to a rise in share price... frankly the opposite usually happens with this behavior... I don't like this silence.

Here is a comparison of my various TA charts for the American and Canadian listings

TA Analysis



The TLT.V chart looks a bit more positive than the American chart. There are well defined resistance and support lines $0.25 and $0.22 respectively... in the circles you see the Blue line in the Canadian TLT.v chart slowing its descent and curving a bit. Not so in TLTFF the blue line is full on bear aiming down.

Here are the trigger charts



These two charts are almost identical... there are minor differences but thy are not significant.

In the blue circles you see TLT.V dropped to $0.20/share and TLTFF dropped to about $0.15 briefly.... Why is this not shown in the P&F charts??? It is because the P&F charts are based on CLOSING values... not low values.... at least they are for my charts... there are options to base charts on Hi/Lo numbers but I have found no advantage using such charts

Sentiment chart




Again the charts are almost mirror images of each other... the only major difference is in those blue circles... The black ADX line is stronger in the TLT.V chart but I don't pay much attention to that.

The Par Sar dotted line in both main charts signals a reversal when it touches the share price... Sigh... unless there is a dramatic increase in share price this will be weeks away.

Ichimoku chart



Again... no significant difference in these charts... the big thing to note is the huge red cloud that each chart has and we are going further under it.

Conclusion

Not much to cling to as far as hope goes. Hopefully that support I see in the P&F chart for TLT.V holds.

There is a huge meeting and Theralase will do a presentation there... I hope it goes well.

UE

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From: Underexposed1/18/2018 1:49:46 PM
   of 10
 
My thoughts on the news that a fourth candidate has been enrolled

Ok... finally some real news.... we have another candidate enrolled for the therapeutic dose part of the Phase 1b trial. It has been announced in a press release and not speculation.

What does that mean to me? After all it is about 5 months since the last candidate was enrolled.

1. Well first of all, at this rate it will be at least 1-2 years before this Phase 1b trial will be completed.

2. It has nothing to to with the fact that the tests are being conducted in Canada as such. The tests are being held in Toronto because that is where the company and expertise in this treatment is. Princess Margret Hospital is a pretty decent site for such a test. It has a great reputation in the area of Cancer treatment.

3. here is a great document that was written by Theralase back in August/17 and describes in pretty good clarity what the testing and procedure is for the testing overall and the results for the first 3 candiates (low dose).

This was written before the second part of the testing what completed for the first person enrolled in the therapeutic dose.

Theralase Technologies Inc. Corporate Presentation – 3Q2017

Times were pretty heady back then... we had started the second section of the trial... the first low dose part satisfied the safety and tolerability of the low dose and in fact showed efficacy.... All was good, speculation ran wild.

4. This is a cure for bladder cancer!!! Even the McFarland team had posted something like "Bladder Cancer days are numbered" I may not have the quote 100% accurate but that was the sentiment.

But September and October passed with no news of the 4th patient or future enrollment of candidates. The speculation and rumour ran wild...they were angry that such a slam dunk treatment was not being taken up by big Pharma, after all we killed bladder cancer on the first trial candidates...right????

5. Then in the first week of November... a very important document was finally published

Theralase Provides Interim Data Analysis on Anti-Cancer Treatment for First Four Patients Treated

here is a quote from the document

Interim Data Results:

1. As previously reported, the first three patients treated at the MRSD successfully achieved the primary, secondary and exploratory outcome measures at 90 days post treatment.

2. Patient four treated at the Therapeutic Dose successfully achieved the primary, secondary and exploratory outcome measures at 90 days post treatment. During the 90 day cystoscopy analysis, patient number four’s bladder surface wall was observed to be red and inflamed. The patient will continue to be monitored to see if this condition resolves.

3. Although not a pre-defined outcome measure of the Study, patient one, two and three have successfully achieved the primary and secondary outcome measures at 180 days post treatment.

4. Although not a pre-defined outcome measure of the Study, patient one, two and three have not achieved the exploratory outcome measure at 180 days post treatment.
Ahhhh... this is not the slam dunk it appeared to be.

The bolding is mine for emphasis
and to draw attention to the fact that there are issues here... It is not as cut/dried as treating mice. What worked for 90 days has not worked for 180 days. Were there was no significant problems of discomfort for the first 3 candidates at low dosage there seems to be issues with the 4th candidate at high dose...

So... it seems the cancer has recurred.... in patients 1,2,3 but the upside was that the disease was not made worse. Apparently the recurrance might be from other sources such as the upper urinary track.

6. I doubt that most speculators on this stock read this document to completion... just my feelings about it. I didn't read it as carefully as I did this time...my bad.

I have a strong science background in Chemistry. It is not in Cancer research but I think I can follow most jargon free discussions on most science subjects. That is what attracted me to Theralase and their treatment for bladder cancer... It made sense to me.

7. Now... if I were confronted with this type of information at 180 days into the tests... I doubt I would blast away with the enrollment and testing of additional candidates with the same procedure.

I would evaluate the information in detail with other members of the team and try to come up with a strategy to make things better. Insanity would be to try the same thing over and over again and expect things to be different.

Final thoughts

8. The silence has not had a good effect on the stock price, that is obvious. But really what could they say? I find this announcement encouraging. Perhaps they will modify the procedure to get a better result... I imagine they would have had to get permission from FDA to do anything that was seriously different from past testing and that in itself would take time.

I am long in this stock... I have a significant holding that I have hung onto for over 1.5 years. I am not about to bail out on this company now.

UE

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From: Underexposed1/28/2018 3:30:24 PM
1 Recommendation   of 10
 
Well it is about time that I updated the charts for TLT.V

Here they are



As can be seen there is little changed in the P&F chart. we have a support at $0.22 and a resistance at $0.25.

Both are strong and both have been tested when you look at the Trigger chart. The Blue arrow shows that the share price opened below $0.22 but eventually by the end of that day it closed above $0.22 and the P&F chart is based on the closed value.

The Slow Sto is looking pretty good actually. It has dug itself out of the mud and is reaching above 50.... this is the best sign of a mildly bull move that we have seen for months.

The MACD is mildly positive... supporting the Slow Sto move.

All that is missing is a dramatic rise in the BBWidth which would signal a bullish move in the price.

So there is hope that this meeting next week will be a catalyst for a bull move.... that would be welcome

UE

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From: Underexposed2/26/2018 1:35:59 PM
2 Recommendations   of 10
 
I have been away for a while, partially because I took a bit of a vacation during the correction to the market and partially because there was really not much to say about Theralase stock

The good news is the Phase 1 trials are moving forward finally with a 5th and 6th patient has been enrolled and treated.

This says to me that the problems with inflammation and reoccurrence of the tumours which are treatable caused the team to give sober thought to what they were doing. These problems have nothing to do with the goals of Phase 1 testing... they have already demonstrated the safety of the procedure, the tolerance of the doseage and some efficacy but to continue to treat at the higher dose and get the problems of inflammation of candidate 3 over and over again does not make sense to me.

However, the treatment of 2 more candidates NOW indicates to me they think they have a solution to the problems and are applying their solution to 2 more candidates... this is positive news to me.

Anyone who thought this treatment was a slam dunk and that Theralase should be actively seeking Big Pharma, were dreaming in technicolor. Just because rat tests were so positive does not mean the procedure should work flawlessly in humans. That is why fast-tracking the testing at this point is not in the cards... Phase 1 testing alone will go on for at least another year IMHO.

Ok, I got that out of my system, let's look at the status of the share price since the additional candidates have been treated.

Here is my first 2 charts



Some people are shocked at the halting of the share price rise of late. I am not...

Look at the P&F chart... the share price ran into a pretty well established resistance at $0.25. This resistance is defined by 4 points and this is pretty strong... it is no wonder that the share price rise that took place slowly over the month of Feb, stalled when it reached $0.25 Even if it passed that level it would have tough sledding until it passed $0.30.

The support for this price is a $0.22... it is currently up in the air as to how strong this will be... there is secondary support at $0.20 which is weaker.

The column Moving Averages (5 and 10 columns taken at their midpoints) are still far apart and the lower blue line does not show a reversal yet... so this is still mildly bearish despite that latest rise in price. The good news is that the distance in rows is showing a decline as shown by the numbers in this chart. So there is hope of a change of direction of the blue MA and crossing the red MA would be bullish... but I don't expect to see that until late March.

the Trigger chart to the right is interesting... this last rise was sort of head fake for an immediate breakout.

Starting with the Slow Sto, things looked rather bullish as it charged up to 80 but now it has reversed direction. It is still bullish by mildly bullish now as it could still go above 80 in the near future.

You can see I have added the signal line to the MACD... I do NOT use it to find buy/sell signals but rather I use it to give clues as to a potential reversal in the MACD... the MACD is bullish but only mildly bullish as it looks to me to be reversing direction but not a dramatic drop.

It is the BBwidth that shows the head fake.

See the rather muted response to the rise in price in Feb. There was no sudden rise in slope of the BBwidth... hence the rise and hitting the resistance says to me that it is not surprising it failed to breach that line.

Having said this in the main chart we see the price is bouncing off the top of the 50daySMA and the 20daySMA (dotted green) is arcing towards the 50daySMA and crossing it will be good.

Here are the next two charts



these two charts are very interesting

the sentiment chart on the left starting at the top circle

the Par Sar is bullish with its dotted red line far below the share price. This suggests that I don't expect a fall to the supports in the near term and it could mean a sign of continued bullish rise.

the Force (30) is neutral. It has been so for all of Feb... being zero and flat

The RSI(30) is neutral bearish as it is still under 50 but barely so and is relatively flat lately.

The ADX DI+/- is neutral... see how the red and green lines are twisted together... this is a sign of indecision

the chart to the right, the ichimoku chart is VERY revealing.

the upper circle shows that the share price has entered a red cloud. This is mildly bullish as it shows an attempt to get out from under these clouds. It will NOT be easy to move through this cloud as a red cloud is like molasses.

Another positive is the thin red/blue lines within that circle... the blue is rising nicely above the red one mildly bullish.

Also not the lower edge of the red cloud is now a support... and it is about $0.22 and if you look back to the P&F chart this confirms the support line I drew there.

The On Bal Vol is dead assed neutral

The CCI is currently bullish.

Conclusion

I go through this exercise to get a consensus of all the indications I see. Indicators often lie to us but they don't do so at the same time if you have a good selection of them.

BULLISH - 2
Mildly Bullish - 4
Neutral Bullish - 0
Neutral - 3
Neutral Bearish - 1
Mildly Bearish - 1
Bearish - 0


After cancelling opposites we get.

BULLISH - 2
Mildly Bullish - 3
Neutral Bullish - 0
Neutral - 2
Neutral Bearish - 0
Mildly Bearish - 0
Bearish - 0


In the short term things look reasonable for a slow rise in price to hopefully challenge the upper edge of the red cloud. I say slow rise because being in a red cloud things don't change fast.

If we make it out of this cloud then things will look very promising but until then we must be patient.

UE

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From: Underexposed3/16/2018 3:48:46 PM
   of 10
 
This is the last post on this thread.

I have other interests and maintaining this thread takes up a significant amount of time, especially now with the volatility of the markets under Trump's leadership (?).

I don't think I have anything to prove anymore as far as my approach to TA. However, I have been disappointed in the lack of participation from the reader point of view. It would have been a different story if this thread generated a lot of discussion but for some reason that has not happened. I am sure there are lurkers here that read the content of the thread but I have no way of knowing it 3 people are reading this or 300... so I feel I am talking to the wall.

It has been an interesting experiment for me, not without controversy on other threads but I think I will leave to devote more time to things that interest me more at this time.

I am still long in TLT.V and actually there are signs of a recovery which would be nice.

TLT.V chart

It is still a long way off from being a profit making stock but the changes in management as well as addition of more candidates for testing makes me feel more positive right now

Take care to my readers and good trading.

Underexposed

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