| From: Paul H. Christiansen | 3/4/2020 12:33:18 PM | | | | | | The Coming Tech Boom of the Fourth Quarter
I spent the early part of my week talking to ODM’s (An original design manufacturer (ODM) is a company that designs and manufactures a product, as specified, that is eventually rebranded by another firm for sale.), and PC makers to gauge how they see their market demands changing over this year. As you can imagine, all say that because of the closing or slowdown of manufacturing facilities due to the COVID-19 Virus during the first half of this year, it will have a ripple effect during Q1 and Q2 on sales and earnings. Both groups are pretty much writing off the first two quarters as ODM’s can’t make enough products to meet current PC demand.
All PC makers have millions of dollars of PC orders they can’t fill, and many of the new smartphones that would come out in the first half of 2019 will be supply constrained through the summer. The PC makers also have a double whammy in that Intel, starting last fall, was unable to meet their demands for specific processors. Even though many turned to AMD to help fill some demand, PC orders in Q 4 of 2019 could not be filled in many cases.
Read More - $ Think.tank |
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| From: Paul H. Christiansen | 3/7/2020 9:15:03 AM | | | | | | Google DeepMind’s effort on COVID-19 coronavirus rests on the shoulders of giants
There's been a quest for sixty years to understand the structure of proteins, ever since Nobel Prize winners Max Perutz and John Kendrew in the 1950s gave the world the first glimpse of what a protein looks like.
It was that pioneering work, and the decades of research that followed, that made possible the announcement on Thursday by Google's DeepMind that it has arrived at a guess as to the structure of a handful of proteins associated with the respiratory disease known as COVID-19 that is spreading around the world.
Proteins do the vast amount of the work of organisms, and understanding the three-dimensional shape of the proteins in COVID-19 could conceivably provide a kind of blueprint of the virus behind the disease, which could conceivably aid in coming up with a vaccine. Efforts are underway around the world to determine the structure of those viral proteins, of which DeepMind's is just one effort.
Read More – ZD Net |
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| From: Paul H. Christiansen | 5/10/2020 11:26:47 AM | | | | | | The PlarityTE (PTE) Enigma
The Diabetic Foot Ulcer (DFU) Total Addressable Market (TAM) is projected to be $11 billion/year by 2026.
The Venus Leg Ulcer (VLU) TAM is projected to be $5 billion by 2026.
The burn TAM is projected to be $3 billion by 2026.
The TAM for these three treatments $19 billion – per year.
Given the possibility that PTE’s SkinTE could become the Standard of Care for all three of these markets, let’s assume that PTE could achieve 15% annually of those markets.
That projects to $2.85 billion annual revenues.
PTE currently has a market cap of $34.9 million, with roughly 38.4 millions shares issued and outstanding.
If a larger pharmaceutical company was willing to buy PTE at a price equal to the projected revenues in 2026 ($2.85 billion) the acquisition cost would be roughly $74 per share.
The stock closed on Friday, May 8, 2020 at $0.91 per share.
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| To: Paul H. Christiansen who wrote (960) | 5/12/2020 1:03:47 PM | | From: The Ox | | | | Any thoughts on this?
PolarityTE: $13.7 million in CEO compensation
PolarityTE is “a biotechnology company developing and commercializing regenerative tissue products and biomaterials.” As of March 31, the company had $39.5 million in cash on hand. In 2018, former CEO Denver Lough was paid $13,714,337 in total compensation, including a bonus of $1,010,000. Former CFO Paul Mann’s total compensation was even bigger, $13,862,967. The company also paid former COO Eric Swanson $4,525,587.
On April 12, the company received a $3.6 million forgivable loan from the Paycheck Protection Program.
The company announced that it would cut salaries for its current executives (and all at-will employees) by 10%. But this will have little impact on their total compensation, which is mostly conveyed through stock grants and options.
But on April 16, four days after the loan, the company awarded its current COO, Richard Hague, a $165,000 cash bonus and 115,000 stock units. The value of the cash bonus, not to mention the stock grant, was many times larger than Hague’s salary reduction. On the same day, Chief Counsel Cameron Hoyler received a $125,000 bonus and 100,000 stock units. The current CEO, David Seaburg, received 315,000 stock units. |
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| From: Paul H. Christiansen | 8/12/2020 2:17:17 PM | | | | | | One of the sharpest declines among software stocks has been Alteryx (AYX). On July 9th - just 25-trading days ago - it hit a high of $185.75. It is currently trading at $108.22 . . . down almost 42%. A sharp decline like that triggered a search of my research files and I came up with the following, and excerpt of an interview between Tiernan Ray and Kevin Rubin, CFO of AYX:
Kevin “Data doesn’t go away. Questions around the business don’t go away. And so some of the conversation may shift from certain types of use cases in the areas of impact to more ROI and efficiency-driven discussions.
But the applicability of Alteryx in down times is probably even more, even stronger than in robust states.
And again it goes back to companies that had only been dabbling with digital transformation or data initiatives are going to find themselves in a really difficult spot as they go through whatever this recovery looks like without being able to leverage data for decision making.
Because I can tell you their competitors are. And so when you think about a competitive advantage if you’re not leveraging everything available to you to make decisions, you’re going to struggle.
I was just going to mention we have very, very low penetration, still, in what is a ginormous addressable market. Plus or minus 50 million citizen data scientists out there that we believe Alteryx addresses. We have less than 1 percent penetration today.” |
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| From: Paul H. Christiansen | 8/12/2020 3:02:15 PM | | | | | | LVGO - TDOC merger.
Aside from its extraordinary revenue growth, what piqued my early interest in LVGO was Glen Tullman, Founder and CEO. Prior to LVGO, Tullman was CEO of Allscripts. Based upon those 2-factors, I was able to initiate a position in LVGO in early March at a price of $25.50.
I recently read a report covering the merger of the 2-companies. It was a long report, often difficult to follow, but the last sentence truly resonated with me. It was a Tullman comment about the synergy of the 2-companies:
There’s a lot of growth and when you put it together, you now have one point three billion in revenue growing at 80%. I mean, it’s kind of pretty staggering. |
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| From: Paul H. Christiansen | 8/15/2020 1:49:48 PM | | | | | | Bert Hochfeld is one of my favorite research analysts. His reports are usually very comprehensive, insightful and typically quite long. Occasionally readers can come across one of two lines that succinctly capture the essence of his thoughts. For example, in a recent Fastly research report I found the following snippet:
"From my perspective, and simply put - No edge, no digital transformation. The old saw about you can't get there from here is alive and well in considering why edge is becoming such a standard paradigm - if a user wants to achieve decent performance from a new digital transformation, then the use of edge seems inevitable." |
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| From: Paul H. Christiansen | 8/25/2020 10:37:35 AM | | | | | | Recently read that GrowGeneration (GRWG) was the victim of a negative report issued by Hindenburg Research, a research firm that specializes and discovering negative news about companies, such news being a tremendous benefit to short-sellers.
Not sure what the current negative news might be but suspect that it has something to do with CEO Michael Salaman’s prior involvement with Skinny Nutritional, where he was CEO and President from 2000 to 2014 – over six years ago. It would seem that whatever the problems were, remedial action should have occurred since then.
All of that notwithstanding, what seems to be overlooked by Hindenburg is the revenue growth achieved by GRWG, as illustrated below. There are very few companies that can consistently achieve 100% year-over-year quarterly revenue growth. Admittedly, at some point in the future that rate of growth will have to diminish, but according to the GRWG earnings transcript, that is not likely to occur in their next quarterly report.
Select here for the GRWG quarterly revenue growth chart. |
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| From: Paul H. Christiansen | 12/12/2020 10:16:32 AM | | | | | | Two stocks that offer investors with the potential for long-term capital gains are Palantir (PLTR) and C3.ai (AI), both of which are deeply immersed in the pervasive digital transformation.
Each stock had a recent IPO, so there has been limited analysis by Wall Street analysts. However, reading their S-1 files submitted to the SEC can provide some very useful information.
Select here for a brief explanation of The Palantir Difference
Select here for a brief explanation of the C3.ai Extensive Partner Ecosystem, |
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