| From: Paul H. Christiansen | 11/30/2023 9:46:34 AM | | | | | | Rule, Britannia? – Nay! – Rule Nvidia!!
2023-11-29 - Nvidia's Game to Lose – Barron’s
Every major technology company is chasing Nvidia.
Last week, the semiconductor company posted stellar financial results. Revenue in its latest quarter nearly tripled, with the company citing surging demand for its chips that enable artificial intelligence applications.
This year, developers have been clamoring for the company’s GPUs, or graphics processing units. They're well suited for the parallel computations needed for AI projects, including large language model training and inference, the process of generating answers from those AI models.
Rivals are racing to compete against Nvidia. Earlier this month, Microsoft unveiled its in-house designed Azure Maia AI Accelerator chip, which is scheduled to be rolled out early next year. On Tuesday, Amazon announced the next version of its Trainium AI chip. Advanced Micro Devices, Intel, and Google are actively working on improved products.
It's going to be an uphill battle for them all. Jefferies analyst Mark Lipacis analyzed the September AI workloads from the six top cloud computing companies and found that Nvidia had an 86% share -- a figure that hasn’t changed much over the past year.
He tracked Alibaba Aliyun, Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud Platform, Oracle Cloud, and Tencent Cloud.
There are several reasons why customers don’t want alternatives to Nvidia’s chips, even when they face a long wait to receive their orders.
First, Nvidia has the most mature technology offering for AI. The company has spent over a decade fixing software and driver issues for its software programming ecosystem, CUDA. It means the company has already fixed technical issues that other less experienced vendors may still need to iron out.
Second, Nvidia is cloud-agnostic. Customers have the flexibility to take their Nvidia-powered workloads from one cloud to another. Rival AI chip offerings from Amazon or Google, on the other hand, lock users into their cloud platforms. That reduces flexibility to switch to another provider offering a cheaper service or better technology.
Third, developers stick with Nvidia because of its decades of platform stability, large market share, access to industry specific tools, and its reputation for backward compatibility.
“All the invention of technologies that you build on top of Nvidia accrue,” Jensen Huang, the CEO of Nvidia, said last week.
Then there’s performance. Nvidia still offers the best overall capability when customers assess the company's combination of software, systems hardware, and networking hardware.
Ultimately, developers want the technology that empowers them to build the best AI applications as fast as possible with the fewest technical risks.
It's Nvidia's game to lose. |
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| From: Paul H. Christiansen | 12/31/2023 10:22:29 AM | | | | | | EGS Portfolio Performance Update – In Perspective
For all of 2023 the EGS Portfolio gained 76.7%, more than 3X the performance of the S&P 500.
Percentages don’t resonate with investors as clearly as dollar amounts.
If an investor had invested $100,000 in all the stocks in the EGS Portfolio at the beginning of 2023 (making pro rata adjustments for number of shares owned and traded), that $100,000 investment would have grown to $176,700 by the end of 2023. |
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| From: Paul H. Christiansen | 5/2/2024 10:30:49 AM | | | | | | Efficient Market Theory debunked by SMCI
The following quote is from SMCI's CEO in company's 2024Q1 press release.
Here’s the Revenue Chart for SMCI. Most companies would kill for that level of performance.
"Fiscal Q3 net revenue totaled $3.85 billion, up 200% year-on-year, within our aggressive original guidance of March quarter. If not limited by some key component shortages, we could have delivered more." |
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| From: Paul H. Christiansen | 8/22/2024 12:16:47 PM | | | | | | I’m not suggesting that anyone invest in SSTS. However, there are some facts that are intriguing and compelling.
First, there has been validation of the SSTS technology from high profile investors, including AT&T, Google, American Tower, Bell, and Vodaphone – each highly qualified to judge the efficacy of and potential for world-wide direct from satellite to cell phone technology.
Second, we have another day of Price/Volume qualification for SSTS. The total dollar volume for the two days (8/19 and 8/21) amounts to almost $2.8 billion.
I’ve heard the comments that the SSTS products still are not producing meaningful revenues and might not do so for at least several more quarters.
So, are the high-profile investors simply more patient than us “average” investors, or do they see an opportunity that we’re not seeing? The same might be said about the apparent institutional investors who have been driving the Price/Volume data.
One explanation might be that these presumably “smart” investors DO see the financial allure of world-wide direct from satellite to cell phone technology and that a company with significant buying power might acquire SSTS. |
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