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   Technology StocksWDC, NAND, NVM, enterprise storage systems, etc.


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To: Unwelcomeguest who wrote (4626)3/22/2021 12:01:49 AM
From: SiliconAlley
   of 4710
 
Lots of predictions have bitten the dust. One poster proclaimed ‘the bottom was clearly in’ on 8/17/2018 when it closed at $63.64.

I haven't bothered reading your link, but wouldn't put any credence in price predictions, which are pretty much meaningless.

The prediction I referenced was one about the fundamentals of the market, which is a basis of learned investment selection. NAND rules, and will for a LONG, LONG time to come. Disk drives also have huge growth ahead, while most consider it dead.

That being said, anyone who bought on 8/17/18 is ahead of the game, and well positioned for the hypergrowth ahead.

As always, do your homework, be nice, and always use protection.

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To: Bruno Cipolla who wrote (4622)3/25/2021 6:41:58 AM
From: Bruno Cipolla
1 Recommendation   of 4710
 
latest


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From: Sam3/31/2021 6:46:04 PM
1 Recommendation   of 4710
 
Micron, Western Digital each exploring possible deal for Japanese chip maker Kioxia - WSJ
REUTERS 6:41 PM ET 3/31/2021

Symbol Last Price Change
88.21 +1.67 (+1.9297%)
66.75 +1.29 (+1.9707%)
QUOTES AS OF 04:00:01 PM ET 03/31/2021


March 31 (Reuters) - Micron Technology Inc(MU) and Western Digital Corp(WDC) are individually exploring a potential deal for Kioxia Holdings Corp. that could value the Japanese semiconductor firm at around $30 billion, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.

The companies did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment.

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To: Sam who wrote (4629)3/31/2021 7:18:03 PM
From: Elroy
   of 4710
 
Interesting. WDC probably makes more sense. Or maybe MU and WDC merge, and also acquire Kioxia. That entity becomes the US memory tech company to compete w the Koreans.

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To: Elroy who wrote (4630)3/31/2021 7:22:36 PM
From: Sam
1 Recommendation   of 4710
 
That's what I think pretty much. They will need some more NAND heft to compete with the Koreans. And ti would lead to serious consolidation in NAND, mirroring DRAM. Maybe spin off the HD division, so it resembles Seagate, which apparently is doing pretty well judging from its stock price--I don't really follow them anymore.

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To: Sam who wrote (4631)3/31/2021 7:49:52 PM
From: Elroy
   of 4710
 
Yeah, or just sell the disk business to Seagate, and merge the NAND groups of WDC and Toshiba (easy cuz it’s a JV) into MU.
Then the CapEx consolidation can occur in NAND like it has occurred in DRAM.

Not sure how SIMO fits in there, but.....they all still need controllers!

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To: Elroy who wrote (4632)3/31/2021 8:58:20 PM
From: Sam
   of 4710
 
They will never be allowed to sell the HD division to Seagate. They are already the only two HD vendors. There cannot be just one.

As difficult as it is to believe, the HD business is still viable. Heck, the tape business is still viable, decades after being declared dead.

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From: Sam4/1/2021 12:54:08 PM
3 Recommendations   of 4710
 
Kioxia Sales Talks Could Spur Micron to Buy Western Digital, Analyst Speculates -- Barrons.com
DOW JONES & COMPANY, INC. 12:22 PM ET 4/1/2021

Symbol Last Price Change
69.565 +2.815 (+4.2172%)
91.39 +3.18 (+3.605%)
QUOTES AS OF 12:49:54 PM ET 04/01/2021


Consolidation could be coming to the flash-memory chip market, and investors are excited about the possibilities.

After the close of trading on Wednesday, The Wall Street Journal reported that both Western Digital(WDC) and Micron Technology(MU) are considering an acquisition of Kioxia Holdings, a Japanese memory-chip company, for about $30 billion.

Kioxia, which originally was Toshiba's memory-chip business, is controlled by a group of investors that includes Bain Capital, SK Hynix, and Toshiba, among others. The Journal said a deal could be completed later this spring. Last year, Kioxia had planned to go public, but withdrew its initial public offering amid volatile market conditions.

The news emerged right in the middle of a call Micron held with analysts and investors to discuss its results for the February quarter. Both the numbers and management's financial forecasts were better than expected as a result of growing demand and improved pricing for both DRAM and flash memory chips.

But the focus Thursday is not on the strong results, but on the potential further consolidation of the flash-memory sector. In October, of course, Intel (INTC) said it had agreed to sell its flash business to Hynix.

The Kioxia situation is complicated by the fact that the Japanese company's chip-fabrication plants are operated in joint ventures with Western Digital(WDC). The two companies evenly split production; Western Digital(WDC) doesn't independently own its own fabs.

Another complication is that Western Digital's(WDC) current market capitalization, at about $22 billion, is well below the $30 billion the Journal reported as a purchase price for Kioxia. Western Digital(WDC) has been working to reduce debt left over from its $19 billion acquisition of SanDisk in 2016. At year-end, Western had just under $9 billion in long- term debt outstanding, offset by about $3 billion in cash.

Micron is a larger company by market cap, at about $104 billion. In that sense, it would seem better positioned to acquire Kioxia. But that would create a complicated relationship that would have Western in a joint venture with a key rival.

In a research note Thursday morning, Susquehanna Financial Group analyst Mehdi Hosseini says the logical solution would be for Micron to buy Western Digital(WDC). In that scenario, the current joint ventures between Western Digital(WDC) and Kioxia would remain intact, he says, while providing Micron with "best in class manufacturing assets without owning the assets." He thinks Kioxia could then still proceed with its previously contemplated IPO.

He also says that the $30 billion price tag the Journal floated for Kioxia suggests Western Digital(WDC) shares are greatly undervalued, given the company owns half of Kioxia's fabs. Barron's made a similar point in a Tech Trader column last September .) The implication is that Western Digital's(WDC) own flash business would have a similar value, which would suggest investors are getting the Western Digital(WDC) disk-drive business for less than zero.

Hosseini estimates that Kioxia and Western Digital(WDC) together control about 34% of the NAND market, with Samsung just behind at 33%, and SK Hynix and Intel combined at 16%, and Micron at 14%. He estimates that Western has about 15%-20% of the enterprise solid-state drive market, with Samsung at about 50%, Intel at 25%. and Hynix and Micron at under 5% each.

The analyst thinks that Micron's NAND business is becoming "increasingly marginalized" given the pending SK Hynix deal for Intel's NAND unit.

"Acquiring Western would help Micron with access to additional NAND wafers while not having to deal with a high capex structure," he writes. "Kioxia and Western Digital(WDC) [and predecessor SanDisk] have been partners and competitors for decades. The same three-way partnership could exist with Micron acquiring Western Digital(WDC), which would effectively sustain the JV structure while enabling Micron to secure additional NAND wafer capacity without building any new fabs."

Both Western Digital(WDC) and Micron declined to comment. Kioxia didn't respond to a request for comment.

The potential for a Micron bid for Western Digital(WDC) raises the question whether Micron would keep Western's hard- disk drive business, which basically operates in a near duopoly with its chief rival, Seagate (STX). Last fall, Western Digital(WDC) announced a reorganization of its business to effectively separate the flash and drive businesses, a move that created speculation on the Street that Western could eventually split into two companies.

The company has repeatedly denied that it might do that. But it isn't hard to envision Micron spinning off or selling Western's hard-drive business as part of the transaction.

On Thursday, Western Digital(WDC) shares spiked 5.9% to $70.67, Micron gained 4.9% to $92.51 and Seagate rose 1% to $ 77.55.

Write to editors@barrons.com

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From: Sam4/1/2021 7:07:06 PM
1 Recommendation   of 4710
 
When It Comes To Any Deal, '$30B For Kioxia Is Rich' Says Wedbush -- Market Talk
Dow Jones Newswires April 01, 2021 03:55:00 PM ET

1555 ET - Wedbush sees the potential purchase of NAND chipmaker Kioxia as a possible near-term negative for Micron, despite positive industry implications of consolidation. WSJ reports that Micron and Western Digital are each separately exploring a possible deal for Kioxia--the former Toshiba memory business--that could value the Japanese company at around $30B. "We believe $30B for Kioxia is rich," says Wedbush, "and could prove to be a distraction particularly given some uncertainty, in our view, as to whether China would approve any such combination."Wedbush adds that while a Kioxia deal would make strategic sense for Western Digital, "we struggle to see how such a deal would be constructed in light of WD's current debt load and relative market cap." ( maria.armental@wsj.com ; @mjarmental)

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To: Sam who wrote (4635)4/2/2021 8:48:46 PM
From: Unwelcomeguest
   of 4710
 
I think he meant to say, '...as to whether China (Japan) would approve any such combination.'


Am I right???


UWG

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