| From: BeenRetired | 2/19/2021 6:45:54 AM | | | | | | Kioxia, Western Digital announce 6th-gen [162L] 3D flash memory
Jessie Shen, DIGITIMES, Taipei
Friday 19 February 2021
Kioxia and Western Digital jointly announced they have developed their sixth-generation, 162-layer 3D flash memory technology.
This sixth-generation 3D flash memory features advanced architecture beyond conventional eight-stagger memory hole array and achieves up to 10% greater lateral cell array density compared to the fifth-generation technology, according to the companies. This lateral scaling advancement, in combination with 162 layers of stacked vertical memory, enables a 40% reduction in die size compared to the 112-layer stacking technology, optimizing cost.
The Kioxia and Western Digital teams also applied Circuit Under Array CMOS placement and four-plane operation, which together deliver nearly 2.4 times improvement in program performance and 10% improvement in read latency compared to the previous generation. I/O performance also improves by 66%, enabling the next-generation interface to support the ever-increasing need for faster transfer rates.
Overall, the new 3D flash memory technology reduces the cost per bit, as well as increases the manufactured bits per wafer by 70%, compared with the previous generation.
"Through our strong partnership that has spanned two decades, Kioxia and Western Digital have successfully created unrivaled capabilities in manufacturing and R&D," said Masaki Momodomi, Kioxia CTO. "Together, we produce over 30% of the world's flash memory bits and are steadfast in our mission to provide exceptional capacity, performance and reliability at a compelling cost. We each deliver this value proposition across a range of data-centric applications from personal electronics to data centers as well as emerging applications enabled by 5G networks, artificial intelligence and autonomous systems."
"As Moore's Law reaches its physical limits across the semiconductor industry, there's one place where Moore's Law continues its relevancy - that's in flash," said Siva Sivaram, president of technology and strategy for Western Digital. "To continue these advances and meet the world's growing data demands, a new approach to 3D flash memory scaling is critical. With this new generation, Kioxia and Western Digital are introducing innovations in vertical as well as lateral scaling to achieve greater capacity in a smaller die with fewer layers."
P.S.
Read recently an article that concluded NAMR and HAMR HDDs will not reach volume production.
Will WDC stop wasting money & time on 20th technology? |
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| To: Sam who wrote (4596) | 2/19/2021 9:10:36 PM | | From: SiliconAlley | | | | | Very surprised that Mark Hulbert's name was on that article, which I don't feel properly reflected the findings of that study. He was once a client of mine, and I think knows better. |
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| From: Sam | 2/24/2021 4:32:15 PM | | | | | | Western Digital and Micron Rally on Upbeat Outlook for Memory-Chip Pricing -- Barrons.com
DOW JONES & COMPANY, INC. 12:01 PM ET 2/24/2021
Symbol Last Price Change | WDC | 70.53 | +3.38 (+5.0335%) | | MU | 92.52 | +4.29 (+4.8623%) | | QUOTES AS OF 04:00:00 PM ET 02/24/2021 |
Western Digital (WDC) shares are trading higher on signs of improving pricing in the flash-memory market.
Susquehanna International Group analyst Mehdi Hosseini on Wednesday repeated his Positive rating on Western Digital(WDC) , lifting his price target to a Street-high $100 from $85. The analyst's bullish call on Western shares reflects his broader view that memory-chip pricing is rising for both flash NAND and DRAM.
Once primarily a disk-drive manufacturer, Western diversified into flash-memory products via its 2016 acquisition of SanDisk. Strengthening NAND pricing also benefits Micron Technology(MU) , which makes both NAND and DRAM chips.
"The most important takeaway from our recent checks is that despite increased attempts by cloud and enterprise customers to lock in prices for second half delivery, manufacturers are not flinching as they now expect significant [ price] increases from now till then, reflecting the pricing power that is beginning to shift from the buyer to manufacturer, " Hosseini writes in a research note. "This should lead to meaningful expansion in margins, which have been under pressure since 2018."
Hosseini reports that first-quarter DRAM prices are tracking up 5% to 10% from the fourth quarter -- and that pricing for the second quarter is tracking up another 10% or more sequentially. He adds that NAND pricing is tracking flat to down low single digits for the first quarter, better than Street expectations for a 5% price drop in the quarter. And he says NAND pricing should be up 5% or more in the second quarter.
"It appears memory margins bottomed in the [2020 fourth quarter], with significant room for expansion in 2021 (and beyond) given the industry nature of high fixed cost structures," Hosseini writes. "All in all, we remain bullish on memory manufacturers like Micron, Samsung and Western Digital(WDC) given the pricing power that is now coming back."
In recent trading, Western Digital(WDC) shares are up 3.4%, at $69.43, while Micron is up 2.4%, at $90.31. The S&P 500 is up 0.6%. Year to date, Western Digital(WDC) is up 25% and Micron is up 19%.
Write to Eric J. Savitz at eric.savitz@barrons.com |
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| To: Sam who wrote (4601) | 3/1/2021 1:53:18 PM | | From: Unwelcomeguest | | | | Received an update to your article in my eTrade account today. Here is the text:
DJ Micron Shares Extend Rally as Analysts See Higher Prices Ahead for Memory Chips -- Barrons.com
11:54 AM ET 3/1/21 | Dow Jones
By Eric J. Savitz
Micron Technology shares have extended their recent rally, as Wall Street analysts see growing evidence of strengthening demand for both NAND flash and DRAM memory chips.
Memory pricing is on the rise, driven by a combination of tight supplies and growing demand for memory chips in applications like 5G mobile phones, cloud computing servers, electric vehicles, and personal computers.
Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson on Monday repeated his Neutral rating on Micron (Ticker: MU) shares, but lifted his price target to $100, from $88. He expects a sharp acceleration in earnings when the company reports results for its fiscal third quarter ending in May. Micron is scheduled to report February quarter results on March 31.
"Our updated outlook is tied predominantly to better DRAM pricing, although the U.S. memory company should also benefit from an improvement in NAND fundamentals at the margin," Bryson wrote in a research note.
The analyst incrementally increased his expectations for the second quarter, but thinks that it is the third quarter where he thinks higher DRAM prices kick in and drive an earnings spike.
Bryson also notes that Micron CFO David Zinsner is speaking on Wednesday at a virtual tech conference hosted by Morgan Stanley, and he thinks that could be preceded by an update from the chip maker on the outlook for the quarter.
Barclays analyst Thomas O'Malley on Monday raised his price targets for both Micron and Western Digital (WDC), which makes flash memory products as well as hard disk drives. O'Malley writes that the updates reflect a better pricing environment for both NAND flash and DRAM memories.
For Micron, he repeats his Overweight rating, taking his target up to $110, from $110. He maintains his Equal Weight rating on Western Digital, but lifts his target to $75, from $53.
O'Malley reports that spot pricing for DRAM has soared 57% over the last three months, while contract pricing was up 5% over the same span. That gap between spot and contract pricing, he says, is the largest in a decade -- and should pull contract pricing higher. He sees contract prices up 15% in the second quarter. And he notes that NAND spot pricing continues to move higher, "contrary to the perpetual calls for a correction."
Micron shares were up 3.8%, to $94.98, while Western Digital shares spiked 6.1%, to $72.74. Year to date, Micron shares are up 26%, while Western Digital shares have rallied 31%.
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For myself, I have rebalanced my portfolio away from WDC (although I do still have a small position) and towards MU. So far, that has been a good shift for me. Bought some AMZN and sold it just before it started down and got out even. In the red on APPL so far...
UWG |
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| From: Sam | 3/3/2021 11:33:21 PM | | | | | | Owing to High Demand from Smartphone Manufacturers, NAND Flash Revenue Undergoes Mere 2.9% QoQ Decline in 4Q20, Says TrendForce
Published Mar.03 2021,04:13 AM (GMT+8)
The quarterly total revenue of the NAND Flash industry came to US$14.1 billion in 4Q20, showing a QoQ drop of 2.9%, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. The total bit shipments of the NAND Flash industry in 4Q20 registered a QoQ increase of nearly 9%. This gain for the most part offset the negative impacts brought about by the QoQ decline of nearly 9% in the overall ASP of NAND Flash products, as well as by the unfavorable exchange rates that impaired some suppliers’ performances. At the same time, clients in the server and data center segments continued their inventory reduction efforts that had begun in 3Q20. Since their procurement drive remained fairly weak, contract prices of NAND Flash products continued their decline as well. However, NAND Flash suppliers were receiving substantial orders from OPPO, Vivo, and Xiaomi. On the whole, the strong demand in the smartphone segment mostly compensated for the weak demand in the server and data center segments. In the notebook computer segment, Chromebook devices were the primary sales driver, but the storage components of most Chromebooks are low-density solutions, meaning related NAND Flash demand is somewhat limited.
Turning to 1Q21 (this quarter), the bit output of the NAND Flash industry continues to grow significantly due to two factors. First, Samsung and YMTC are actively expanding production capacity. Second, all suppliers are eager to migrate to the more advanced stacking process. On the demand side, PC and smartphone brands have kept stocking up on components. However, they have also slightly corrected down their demand as the first quarter is the traditional off-season. As for clients in the server and data center segments, they have yet to restart large-scale procurement even though their inventories have generally returned to a healthy level. As such, during price negotiations, NAND Flash suppliers still expect the oversupply situation in the market to intensify and thereby further drive contract prices of NAND Flash products downward. Therefore, NAND Flash suppliers’ revenues are projected to undergo a QoQ decline in 1Q21.
Samsung
Two factors helped Samsung’s performance in the NAND Flash market during 4Q20. First, Chinese smartphone brands (with the exception of Huawei) continued to aggressively build up their component inventories so as to fight for more market share. Second, PC OEMs released more upside orders than anticipated because of the further demand growth for notebook computers. Samsung’s NAND Flash bit shipments in 4Q20 rose by 7-9% QoQ as a result of the strong procurement momentum in the smartphone and PC segments. However, the ASP of its NAND Flash products dropped by more than 10% QoQ for the same period. Although clients in the data center segment did begin sending out orders for servers and components at that time, their demand was still very limited. As for clients in the enterprise server segment, they were mainly focused on inventory reduction. With the market leaning toward oversupply, Samsung had to lower prices and thereby experienced a revenue decline. Compared with 3Q20, Samsung’s NAND Flash revenue fell by 3.4% to US$4.644 billion.
Regarding production and technology plans, Samsung this year will be the leader among NAND Flash suppliers in raising production capacity. Besides continuing to expand the production capacity of the Xi’an Fab 2, Samsung will also set up a production line for 3D NAND Flash at P2L (in the Pyeongtaek campus). Most of Samsung’s NAND Flash products are still based on the V5 (92L) process at this moment. However, the supplier will significantly raise the output share of NAND Flash from the V6 (128L) process this year. The application of the V6 process technology will expand to more of its offerings for SSDs and UFS solutions.
Kioxia
Following the end of Huawei’s stock-up activities, Kioxia was unable to fully regain the demand for its mobile NAND Flash products through orders from other Chinese smartphone brands in 4Q20. At the same time, the supplier was affected by the weak demand for enterprise SSDs. On the other hand, there were other sources of demand such as notebook computers and game consoles. Consequently, Kioxia’s bit shipments in 4Q20 still registered a small increase. As for the ASP, Kioxia experienced a QoQ decline of 8-10% because of the general oversupply situation. On account of these factors, Kioxia’s NAND Flash revenue slid by 11.4% QoQ to US$2.749 billion for 4Q20.
Regarding production and technology plans, Kioxia will gradually expand the production capacity of K1. As for the construction of new fabs, Kioxia is staying with its plan to begin building Fab 7 in Yokkaichi and K2 in Kitakami in 1Q21. These fabs, which will be producing BiCS6 or more technologically advanced products, are expected to start contributing to the supplier’s output sometime in 2022. Technology migration will also be the main driver of its bit output growth. Currently, the majority of Kioxia’s NAND Flash products are still manufactured with the 96L BiCS4 process. Going forward, the supplier intends to raise the shipment share of 112L BiCS5 products this year.
Western Digital
Western Digital saw the ASP of its NAND Flash products drop by 9% QoQ for 4Q20 as its clients in the server segment were reducing their inventories. On the other hand, the sales of its channel-market products continued to grow, and the robust demand for notebook computers led to an impressive shipment result for its client SSDs. Western Digital’s bit shipments in 4Q20 increased by 7% QoQ. This roughly compensated for the decline in the ASP. All in all, the supplier posted a QoQ drop of just 2.1% in its revenue to US$2.034 billion.
Concerning its activities, Western Digital will be collaborating with Kioxia in the construction of Fab 7 and K2. The additional production capacity from these two plants will help the allied suppliers to deal with market competition in the future. The 96L BiCS4 process will be Western Digital’s primary technology for NAND Flash production this year. Additionally, Western Digital will be providing OEMs with samples of TLC and QLC products that are manufactured with the 112L BiCS5 process sometime between 2Q21 and 3Q21. Western Digital’s next-generation BiCS6 process is also set to enter the production stage in 2022.
SK Hynix
SK Hynix benefited from the aggressive stock-up activities of Chinese smartphone brands in 4Q20. Its bit shipments rose by 8% QoQ, but its ASP also dropped by 8% QoQ due to the general oversupply situation. With the decline in the ASP being canceled out by the increase in bit shipments, SK Hynix kept its NAND Flash revenue relatively constant for 4Q20. It posted a miniscule QoQ decline of 0.2% to US$1.639 billion.
This year, SK Hynix will rely on technology migration as the primary means of increasing bit output. The share of 128L products in its bit output came to around 30% at the end of 2020 and is expected to keep growing to surpass the output shares of 72L and 96L products in 2021. The supplier has also scheduled the launch of its 176L products for 2H21. Regarding the acquisition of Intel’s NAND Flash plant in Dalian, the transfer of the ownership of the plant along with Intel’s SSD assets is expected to be completed by the end of this year as originally planned.
Micron
Thanks to stock-up activities of smartphone brands and the growing demand for QLC SSDs from PC OEMs, Micron posted a significant QoQ increase of 17-20% in its bit shipments for 4Q20. However, like other suppliers, its ASP fell in the same period due to the general oversupply situation and registered a QoQ decline of 10-13%. In terms of revenue, Micron posted a QoQ increase of 2.9% to US$1.574 billion.
On the technology front, Micron has 128L products, but unlike other suppliers’ strategies, Micron will not ship 128L products to its main clients. Instead, Micron is focusing on the development of the second-generation 176L products that will serve as its main offerings in the future. Its clients will thus bypass the 128L process and advance directly to 176L process. OEMs are expected to begin receiving samples of 176L products from Micron in 2Q21 in accordance with the supplier’s schedule. With respect to the cell type, Micron is raising the shipment share of QLC products. Currently, more than 50% of supplier’s NVMe SSD shipments (in bit terms) are QLC products.
Intel
Intel made a recovery in its bit shipments in 4Q20 after inventory adjustments in the data center and enterprise server segments had caused a QoQ decline of nearly 25% in 3Q20. The procurement momentum of its clients was still fairly weak in 4Q20, but it did pick up somewhat compared with the previous quarter. Additionally, the demand from PC OEMs continued to rise. Consequently, Intel’s bit shipments grew by nearly 25% QoQ for 4Q20. Again like other suppliers, Intel saw its ASP drop in 4Q20 because of the general oversupply situation. The QoQ decline came to almost 20%. On balance, Intel’s NAND Flash revenue went up by 4.8% to US$1.208 billion for 4Q20.
Intel will probably not make any significant changes to its existing plans for production capacity and product mix as it has sealed the deal to sell its NAND Flash business to SK Hynix. It will continue to leverage its advantage in the enterprise SSD market to push its clients to adopt 144L products. Regarding the distribution of its product shipments by technology, Intel will be raising shipment share for the 144L stacking process and the QLC architecture. To increase the output of 144L products, Intel will expand the production capacity of the Dalian plant this year. From a long-term perspective, SK Hynix will be the main beneficiary of this capacity expansion effort.
On the whole, TrendForce’s investigations find that PC OEMs have been releasing a substantial amount of upside orders since the start of 1Q21. Although the oversupply situation is worse compared with 4Q20, it has become more moderate than expected. Moreover, the market is anticipating that clients in the data center segment will reinitiate large-scale procurement in 2Q21. The sentiment has thus turned more positive with respect to contract negotiations, and the general price decline has also begun to ease earlier than expected. Suppliers’ sales performances are projected to rebound rapidly in 2Q21.
dramexchange.com |
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| From: Sam | 3/5/2021 8:53:55 AM | | | | | | Western Digital upgraded at Goldman ahead of NAND pricing growth
Mar. 05, 2021 8:16 AM ET Western Digital Corporation (WDC) By: Brandy Betz, SA News Editor 1 Comment
- With an improved view on NAND pricing, Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney upgrades Western Digital (NASDAQ: WDC) from Neutral to Buy with an $85 price target, up from $102 and implying a 22% upside.
- Delaney: "We increase our DRAM and NAND ASP assumptions following recent industry checks that point to an improved demand backdrop and continued supply-side discipline.
- "The firm's checks show NAND supply/demand has improved with WDC a "major beneficiary" since NAND contributes toward 52% of its trailing 12 month revenue
- NAND ASPs are forecast for a flattish Q/Q performance in calendar Q2 due to the tightening supply/demand dynamics but should increase sequentially in Q3 and Q4.
- Delaney also outlines that the firm's checks show improved DRAM supply/demand dynamics since the last earnings update. Enterprise demand still seems muted but "essentially every other key end-market" has stayed robust or strengthened.
- Note that the DRAM checks are positive for Western Digital's NAND competitor Micron (NASDAQ: MU).
Western Digital shares are up 2.9% pre-market to $65.35. Micron is up 1% to $85.14.
Earlier this week, TrendForce reported that NAND bit shipments are growing in Q1 while prices drop.
seekingalpha.com |
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| To: Sam who wrote (4604) | 3/5/2021 9:58:55 AM | | From: Elroy | | | | NAND ASPs are forecast for a flattish Q/Q performance in calendar Q2 due to the tightening supply/demand dynamics but should increase sequentially in Q3 and Q4.
This sounds like a strange forecast to me. He thinks NAND price per bit will increase in H2 2021? Why would that happen? There are no new fans or capacity expansion or shrinks coming on line? |
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