While it isn't definitive, I would say that the fact that Bain, Hynix, Apple, Dell, and STX are participating in the Toshiba deal and WDC not only isn't a participant but, even more disturbing, Toshiba is trying ice them out of future fab deals is at least strongly suggestive that Milligan did not handle this situation very well.
That's like saying someone didn't handle an interview well because they didn't get the job. You can not infer actions from a result., Toshiba has an agenda, and I continue to see this as stemming from a cultural clash in which Milligan is not at fault. I have written extensively about this.
I said it wasn't definitive but it is "strongly suggestive". Both you and I believed at the start of this thing that the KKR-WDC partnership would be successful in these negotiations. We believed that they had the inside track and said so numerous times until the last few months. Someone screwed up. The most obvious candidate for that "someone" is Milligan or whoever decided on WDC's strategy for dealing with Toshiba. Ultimately, though, whoever conjured up the strategy, Milligan had to approve it and he has to bear responsibility for it. This isn't just any "result", it could end up being a company defining result if he can't make things right with Toshiba and continue to source NAND from the partnership.
I steer ships and adapt to the waters. Yes, that was my original belief, until credible information suggested otherwise. Credible information suggests cultural clash, with Toshiba offended by Milligan's protection of his shareholders' interests. This is not screwing up, it is protecting shareholders.
Today's move appears to be driven by chat-room type sites that are playing the 200 day MVA and calling this a strong buy. We peaked just below the 50 day MVA. Absent news of supply resolution, expecting this move to fade. Good opportunity for lightening up, for those looking to do so.
Today's action is a perfect example of why knowledge of technical analysis is important. Whether you believe in it or not, there are people who do, and it factors into market psychology.
While some may believe that a knowledge of company fundamentals is all you need to make money in the market, this is not true. Making money means understanding the company, understanding how markets work, and most importantly understanding the psychology that drives market decisions.
Making money means a multi-dimensional approach to investing, and not simplistic one-dimensional thinking often found in academic writings full of grandiose words. One also needs to look beyond the next quarter or two, and understand the long term view.
For those who wish to gamble, this stock can provide a great playground, However, this is not a time to invest. Waiting for improved fundamentals is now the most prudent course.
For those who may be following the wisdom of Investor's Business Daily, Friday was a classic "stall day." It comes in many forms, but this one was a small gain and a close that was in the lower half of the daily range.
Whether you believe in this or not, there is an army of traders that do, and this plays into market psychology. I am expecting that absent any news on resolution of supply concerns, that this stock is going to rapidly break down and turn treacherous.
The stock is currently being held up by hope, and the failure of certain analysts to timely downgrade amid deteriorating fundamentals. This provides powerful players time to exit, after which those who didn't heed the warning signs will be left holding the bag. I expect to start seeing additional downgrades this coming week.
If you are wanting to sell, but not doing so due to the tax hit, my recommendation is to ignore the tax side of the equation and just get out. There is just too much risk between now and January. There was a time when you could shift your gain into the following year through the sale of deep in the money calls, but that loophole has been closed and will result in the reclassification of a long term gain into a short term gain.