| To: E_K_S who wrote (98) | 6/18/2020 6:37:16 PM | | From: robert b furman | | | | Hi EKS,
My average is $17.03. I have swapped a lot of Cohu for KMI.
KMI is now my biggest dividend payer in total dollars.
I love this stock. I think it is going to be my very best dividend growth stock in my retirement account.
I've sold the heck out 12, 13, and 14 puts. ( I sold them when KMI dropped below 15.00).
I'd like to add 2500 more shares, but keep selling puts to help pay for them.
I'll add to the position before they look at the extra 20 cants to be paid at year end - then I'll watch and collect. <smile>
Bob |
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| From: E_K_S | 7/9/2020 9:33:59 AM | | | | | | In for a few more KMI at $14.43/share. Small Buys w/ next larger Buys at/near $12.75/share . .Will be interesting to hear update from the company on how their delivery contracts are going especially from Chapter 11 customers.
PBA another pipeline I own has seen some heavy insider buying.
EKS |
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| To: E_K_S who wrote (100) | 7/9/2020 12:22:43 PM | | From: robert b furman | | | | Hi E_K_S,
What are your thoughts on what ramifications could a BK customer have?
They have their commodity in the pipeline. They bill monthly.
If a bankruptcy judge wanted to continue the cash flow from continued oil or liquids or natural gas, he'd authorize payment for the services.
Upon complete resolution, the new acquirer of the wells would want to continue transporting. A new contract would be negotiated. The worst I'd see is a small delay that would max out for 30 days?
I'm not at all and attorney, but they do strive to keep a company going, and pay all of the attorneys.
I'd think the pipeline would be the last company to intentionally hurt, as they're providing revenue that will pay the attorneys?
Sort of like being in bed with the right crowd!
BWDIK?
Bob |
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| To: robert b furman who wrote (101) | 7/9/2020 12:43:05 PM | | From: E_K_S | | | | You see it the way I see it.
Also, what other things can be moved in/on those pipelines & easements? Water, hydrogen and even dark fiber lines. Those pipes and easements are valuable (other ideas; 5G cell towers, windmills, solar panels) .
NG & oil assets are always in stronger hands after a BK.
Just need to be cautious on their debt obligations, expected/new cash flows and what options they have to enter into new contracts (both on use of easements and future delivery contracts).
EKS |
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| From: E_K_S | 7/17/2020 2:43:29 PM | | | | | | FERC was busy today . .
FERC clears Kinder Morgan to begin Elba LNG Unit 8 service
Jul. 17, 2020 9:53 AM ET|About: Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI)|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor
Kinder Morgan's ( KMI +1.5%) request to place the seventh liquefaction train at its Elba Island liquefied natural gas export plant in Georgia into service is approved by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.
Kinder Morgan said earlier this week that Train 8 was ready for service; trains 1-6 already are in service, and units 7, 9 and 10 are in various stages of commissioning.
Elba, which is 51% owned by units of Kinder Morgan and 49% by EIG Global Energy Partners, is designed to liquefy ~2.5M mt/year of LNG; Royal Dutch Shell ( RDS.A, RDS.B) has a 20-year contract to use the facility.
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Williams wins FERC approval for Leidy South gas project
Jul. 17, 2020 2:37 PM ET|About: The Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB)|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor
Williams ( WMB -1%) says the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved its Leidy South natural gas pipeline project in Pennsylvania that will create 582K dth/day of additional pipeline capacity.
The project will connect gas produced by Cabot Oil & Gas ( COG +0.8%) and Seneca Resources in the Marcellus and Utica regions with demand markets along the Atlantic Seaboard by the 2021-22 winter heating season.
By maximizing the use of the existing Transco transmission corridor and expanding existing facilitiesa, Williams says Leidy South will reduce the amount of new infrastructure and land use needed.
Williams recently was upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley, citing its gas gathering exposure that stands to benefit from a potentially pipeline constrained Bakken pending a resolution of the Dakota Access Pipeline. |
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| From: E_K_S | 7/23/2020 9:19:21 AM | | | | | | Kinder Morgan EPS beats by $0.01, misses on revenue
Jul. 22, 2020 4:08 PM ET|About: Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI)|By: Vandana Singh, SA News Editor
Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.17 beats by $0.01; GAAP EPS of -$0.28 misses by $0.46.
Revenue of $2.56B (-20.2% Y/Y) misses by $340M.
2Q adjusted EBITDA of $1.57B compared to estimate $1.63B.
Distributable cash flow of $1,001M, -11% Y/Y. |
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| To: E_K_S who wrote (104) | 7/23/2020 9:19:41 AM | | From: E_K_S | | | | Kinder Morgan slips after posting Q2 GAAP loss, DCF/share dips Y/Y
Jul. 22, 2020 5:28 PM ET|About: Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI)|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor
Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI) -3.6% after-hours as Q2 results show adjusted EBITDA fell 14% Y/Y to a slightly-lower-than-forecast $1.57B, and distributable cash flow fell to $0.44/share from $0.50 a year earlier.
Kinder still achieved $404M of excess distributable cash flow above its declared dividend, which rose to $0.2625/share from $0.25 a year earlier.
The company lost $637M compared to a $518M profit in the year-ago quarter, after taking a $1B impairment charge as the recent sharp decline in natural gas production affected a number of its assets.
Kinder says its board "remains committed to increasing the dividend to $1.25 annualized as we projected, under far different circumstances, in 2017."
Because of the COVID-19-related reduced energy demand and the sharp decline in commodity prices, the company now expects full-year DCF to be below its initial $5.1B projection by slightly more than 10% and adjusted EBITDA to come in below the $7.6B plan by slightly more than 8%.
Kinder has cut its 2020 expenses and sustaining capital spending by $170M combined from its original budget, and has lowered its full-year expansion capital outlook by $660M, or almost 30%.
The company says two of its key natural gas projects remain on track despite the coronavirus, expecting to start its Permian Highway Pipeline in Texas in early 2021 and the final three Elba Island LNG liquefaction plants this summer. |
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| To: E_K_S who wrote (105) | 7/23/2020 11:13:11 AM | | From: robert b furman | | | | Hi E_K_S,
I keep adding to my position.
The number of big projects coming on stream in 2020 and 2021.
The $1.25 dividend is coming by year end or first of 2021.
Selling August and Sept 14.00 puts are yielding almost 10% if assigned and premiums annualized are hitting high 30% to 40%.
What's not love about this utility like company.
Big impairment caused the non gaap loss.
Plenty of money over the dividend here.
Once the pandemic news stops ( most likely election driven imo), this company will print money as CO2 comes back.
Bob |
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| From: E_K_S | 10/6/2020 8:36:00 AM | | | | | | Oil pipeline operators offer new discounts as demand drops - Bloomberg
Oct. 5, 2020 10:58 PM ET|About: Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI)|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor
U.S. oil pipeline operators are lowering fees to encourage Texas customers to keep using their networks to ship barrels to the Gulf Coast as the pandemic hits profits, Bloomberg reports.
Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI) is offering discounts of ~50% on the Eagle Ford pipeline for some existing customers, according to the report, which also says Magellan Midstream Partners (NYSE: MMP) is negotiating lower tariffs on the BridgeTex system for certain users, and Energy Transfer (NYSE: ET) plans a volume incentive program for those who qualify on its Permian Express 2 and 3 pipelines.
The discounts reflect efforts by pipeline companies to combat sluggish oil consumption and a drilling slowdown in areas such as the Permian Basin after they expanded capacity in recent years.
The lack of demand for pipeline capacity has reduced the premium for oil delivered to export hubs on the Gulf Coast to below $1/bbl - not enough to cover transport fees for most Permian pipelines - from ~$3/bbl at the start of the year. |
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| To: E_K_S who wrote (107) | 10/6/2020 10:25:08 AM | | From: robert b furman | | | | Hi E_K_S,
Looks like natural gas is at the 5 year average, Capex cuts are beginning to show a possible boost in price.
ECONOMICS & MARKETSMorgan Stanley: $5 Henry Hub gas possibleRecord production declines combined with rebounding demand could create the tightest gas market of the past decade, with winter storage draws potentially eclipsing those of the 2013-14 polar vortex, according to Morgan Stanley.
OGJ editors
Oct 5th, 2020
Morgan Stanley.
Record production declines combined with rebounding demand could create the tightest gas market of the past decade, with winter storage draws potentially eclipsing those of the 2013-14 polar vortex, according to Morgan Stanley. The investment bank and financial services company increased its 2021 Henry Hub forecast to $3.25/MMbtu from $3.05/MMbtu and sees upside to $5/MMbtu with cold weather.
“2021 Henry Hub prices have rallied 10% in the third quarter on tighter inventories, though we see further upside from here. The collapse in oil prices removed a key overhang for the US natural gas market: the abundance of ‘free’ associated supply from oil wells. Now, record production declines from sharp reductions in E&P spending combined with rebounding demand, led by a recovery in LNG exports, is set to create the tightest gas market of the past decade, with winter storage draws potentially eclipsing those of the 2013-14 polar vortex—a $4.35/MMbtu gas year—and with a growing shortfall through the summer months,” Morgan Stanley said.
To address the impending supply-demand imbalance, Morgan Stanley sees the need for materially higher 2021 prices to incentivize much needed investment in additional supply and gas-to-coal switching. “We are updating our gas balance and increasing our Henry Hub forecast for 2021 from $3.05/MMbtu to $3.25/MMbtu, implying 13% upside from the current strip of $2.87/MMbtu. Our long-term $2.75 forecast is unchanged.”
US gas production is set to post a record 6 bcfd decline this year. Growth in "free" gas from oil production (associated gas) has been a key overhang for Henry Hub prices over the past few years. However, in response to low oil prices, exploration and production companies have now slashed 2020 capital spending by around 50% below 2019 budgets. Morgan Stanley expects associated gas production to fall by 3-4 bcfd exit to exit 2020.
“With WTI prices currently below the $40/bbl we estimate is needed to hold US volumes flat next year, these declines could continue into 2021. Declines are not isolated to the oil basins: in the Haynesville, rig counts have fallen from 50 to 35 year-to-date, with the Marcellus posting a with a similar 30% decline. Weak spot prices this summer, balance sheet stress and minimal access to external capital has left gas producers with production declines of their own, and limited ability to proactively increase capex in response to the upcoming market tightness.”
Despite declining supply, demand looks set for another year of strong gains. Global gas oversupply led to substantial cancellations of US LNG exports over the past summer. Peaking at 45 cargo cancellations in July, LNG feedgas demand fell to below 3 bcfd, well below capacity of 9.5 bcfd. Heading into the winter, Morgan Stanley anticipates negligible cargo cancellations as the global LNG market shifts back into balance. After averaging 6 bcfd in September, Morgan Stanley expects LNG feedgas to stabilize around 9-10 bcfd during the fourth quarter. In total, winter 2020-21 demand growth is forecast to be 5-6 bcfd year-over-year (assuming normal weather).
The combination of falling supply and rebounding demand leads to tight inventories. After ending October 2020 at 3.9 tcf, roughly in line with the 5-year normal, Morgan Stanley expects the combination of constrained supply and increasing demand to lead to one of the largest winter draws over the past decade. Assuming normal 10-year weather, Morgan Stanley expects tight end-March inventories of 1.2 tcf (35% below the 5-year normal of 1.8 tcf), with a mounting deficit thereafter. Colder than normal weather could lead to the lowest US gas inventory levels on record, and a material price rally to $5/MMbtu, or higher, and average in the mid-$4 range for full-year 2021.
 Morgan Stanley.
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I flew in a plane for the first time in years last Friday. It was a full plane and both planes I flew in were refreshingly clean.
Their first hand out was an alcohol swab that cleaned all the surfaces, issued as one enters the plane.
In all it was a very improved service.
Air flight will slowly build into the future.
Patience will reward those who buy this out of favor and necessary sector.
Bob |
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