| To: robert b furman who wrote (87) | 4/23/2020 4:18:48 PM | | From: gypsees | | | | | I liked this company very much and had it on my short list. But it was included in an article that questioned some companies being able to survive the current environment due to having too much debt. After reading that I removed it from my list. There were a few other companies on that list that I used to trade 20 years ago in the 30's and higher and they were both sub 1.00. Very sad. |
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| To: gypsees who wrote (88) | 4/23/2020 5:10:05 PM | | From: robert b furman | | | | Hi Gypsees,
I'v had KMI a long time and "got kindered" with the dividend decline years ago.
Since then I've averaged down. (along with E_K_S) - we're kind of the lonely regulars here.
For several years the dividend was substantially reduced and KMI has maintained strong cash flow.
Additionally they did some big deals like selling the transmountain pipeline to the government of Canada.
That reduced their debt by several billions.
Bottom line I like how management owns a LOT of shares and have recently added to their positions.
Bottomline : KMI's pipelines in and around Texas have dialed in very long term natural gas transportation opportunity. Their partners with XOM,CVX and the Saudi's plastics and refineries will be on going longer than I will be alive. Their export alliances with Gulf of Mexico deep water ports for both oil and LNG
There are very long term megatrends regarding natural gas electrical generation and exporting of gas and oil to Mexico. These are dynamic and long term growth businesses.
I know some analysts don't think KMI has a big moat. I disagree. The fact that they have easements and can double their capacity without all of the red tape a new pipeline must endure should be considered a formidable moat IMO.
Some may be upset with the 5 cent increase vs the hoped for 25 cent increase. I'll just accept the 5% dividend increase (which is solid in anyone's book) and have quiet expectations that the next 2-5 years will be very nice dividend growth rates.
This one is going down as a super star when it comes to it's dividend cagr .
Good to have a new poster here.
Natural gas has been the key to the US being the only country out there with a reduced carbon footprint. I suspect it will be a very long trend.
Bob |
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| To: robert b furman who wrote (89) | 5/1/2020 4:36:24 PM | | From: gypsees | | | | Thanks Bob. Turns out I should not have paid much attention to that list. I took all my favorites I had been watching off based on that article and ALL of them went up without me. Some by several points! I know better than to listen to analysts but I guess after 20 years of not trading I needed a refresher course..lol.. I ended up buying DHT today on the pull back. May get stopped out Monday but for now, I am in :) Thanks for the good input!
Robyn |
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| To: gypsees who wrote (90) | 5/1/2020 9:24:07 PM | | From: robert b furman | | | | Hi Gypsees,
Tough day for going up - last two days.
I'm watching till at least tuesday/wednesday.
Breathe in breathe out.
Time for a retrace after one heck of a bounce.
Good to have you posting!
Bob |
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| To: robert b furman who wrote (91) | 5/1/2020 9:48:03 PM | | From: gypsees | | | | I am holding 2 stocks over. One was an impulse buy but a real cheapie but I do like it..lol.. AYTU. The other is the DHT. I'm not hoping to hold either very long. If I had more money I'd probably hang on to the AYTU but I only just started trading again after a 20 year break and I only have a very small account so I'm not set up to "invest". :)
I have a "feeling" we may see more downside Monday but I don't know for sure. And IF we do, whether or not it is a buying opportunity remains to be seen. I plan to have several options for going long IF there are any that look like decent risk/reward. Good luck to us all next week!! |
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| To: gypsees who wrote (92) | 5/1/2020 10:03:36 PM | | From: robert b furman | | | | WWW is wednesday.
I'm thinking down into tuesday, wednesday at the latest. Then a nice bounce.
Clx is flip flopping till then.
2 cs turned down today. Breathe in breathe out. Its been up strong , so time for a retrace.
I sold some T $27.00 puts today. July's and September's.
If assigned they yield 8 %.
Better than a bank pays.
Bob |
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| From: gypsees | 5/4/2020 8:01:59 PM | | | | | | | So I got out of DHT with a small profit. I just got nervous holding ahead of earnings tomorrow. Even a small profit is better than a loss so I will take it..lol.. I have my cheap position still but so far is holding above yesterday's low. Yippee! |
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| To: gypsees who wrote (96) | 6/18/2020 10:12:01 AM | | From: robert b furman | | | | LNG exports growing to China and Turkey - has to be good for the largest owner of natural gas pipelines = KMI!
 ALEX KIMANI
Alex Kimani is a veteran finance writer, investor, engineer and researcher for Safehaven.com.
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U.S. Is The Surprising Winner In China’s LNG MarketBy Alex Kimani - Jun 17, 2020, 3:00 PM CDT
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The natural gas market is reeling from the triple whammy of a stubborn supply overhang, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region--which accounts for nearly two-thirds of global demand--a mild winter, and a hobbled global economy. China has emerged as a rare bright spot as energy demand in the country remains relatively high. However, Beijing is taking advantage of the health and economic crisis to do a dramatic overhaul of its natural gas supply chains.
China has shifted its attention from its traditional Central Asia supply hub further west where another natural gas and LNG powerhouse is emerging.
The United States is emerging as the surprising winner as China, the world’s second-largest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), continues to ramp up its LNG imports despite a buildup of tensions between the two nations.
Force Majeure
Over the past decade, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan have emerged as major natural gas exporters to China. In 2019, Turkmenistan sold over 30 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas to Beijing--good for more than 90% of its total exports--with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan exporting 10 bcm apiece to the Middle Kingdom.
Things have, however, taken a turn for the worse--especially for Turkmenistan.
In early March, Kazakhstan revealed that Beijing had issued a force majeure declaration to state pipeline company KazTransGas (KTG) regarding its natural gas supplies. Consequently, import data published by Beijing revealed that Turkmen imports had declined some 17.2% during the first two months of the year. Meanwhile, Uzbekistan’s exports to China, of which gas is a major component, fell 35.4%. Kazakhstan was the outlier in this trilogy, with its natural gas exports to China rising 31.6%. Related: China Drops Energy Efficiency Targets Amid Covid-19 Crisis
The same trend continued in March and April, with Turkmen and Uzbek exports to China falling in excess of 20% and 30%, respectively, while Kazakh exports once again climbed more than 20%.
Despite these large declines in natural gas imports from Central Asia, China’s National Development and Reform Commission has claimed that natural gas consumption by the country increased by 1.6% to 78.5 bcm during the first quarter.
China’s LNG Imports Grow
China’s largest LNG importer, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNOOC), and PetroChina also invoked force majeure clauses on various LNG suppliers, though the notice was rejected by Shell, Total, and Qatargas.
Meanwhile, commodity trading houses such as Trafigura as well as Middle East gas producers did not officially confirm receiving the notices. However, China resumed buying LNG cargoes later in the quarter as spot market prices plunged to multi-year lows.
And now, Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) has reported that China’s LNG imports have actually been rising on a year-on-year basis, with the U.S. stealing market share from traditional powerhouses Australia and Qatar.
According to Wood Mackenzie via NGI, China took in 10 LNG cargoes from U.S. suppliers between April and May at the expense of Australia whose market share slipped up in May.
There are several plausible explanations as to why China is buying U.S. LNG—despite Washington and Beijing feuding over everything from the novel coronavirus to Hong Kong to 5G networks.
First off, China could be using the crisis as a bargaining chip to renegotiate its contracts with long-term suppliers, including Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. This could, however, prove to be a tough proposition because force majeure cases are rarely straightforward and even reference to specific events like ‘epidemic’, ‘acts of government,’ or ‘quarantine restrictions’ under an SPA (sale and purchase agreement) does not automatically guarantee relief. Related: The Oil & Gas Sector Could Already Be In Terminal Decline
Second, Beijing could be trying to increase its sphere of influence in Central Asia, a region that has long been a geopolitical battleground between Beijing and Moscow.
It is instructive to note that Russia and Turkmenistan have reached a tentative rapprochement that saw a resumption of gas exports from Turkmenistan to Russia sometime in mid-April after ceasing exports in January 2016 over a dispute over price and payments. A decade ago, Turkmenistan was exporting over 40 bcm/yr of gas to Russia, significantly more than its current exports to China. Perhaps it is not a coincidence that China has fallen out with Turkmenistan at a time when the latter has made up with Russia.
Meanwhile, in February, under pressure from Moscow, Uzbekistan became an observer of Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), probably irking China.
Lastly, Beijing might simply be trying to stick to the January trade agreement with Washington to prevent another full-blown trade war. Although the accord did not specify quantities of the products, it committed Beijing to purchase an extra $52.4 billion of U.S. energy supplies over the next two years.
Under the deal, China’s deal amount increases to $18.5 billion in 2020 and another $33.9 billion in 2021 from a baseline of just $9.1 billion in 2017. China has already instructed state-owned firms to suspend large-scale purchases of U.S. farm produce including soybeans and pork, in retaliation to Trump’s Hong Kong stance but has not said anything about energy products.
Whatever the case, U.S. LNG suppliers appear to be cozying up to a second major customer after recently doing so with Turkey.
By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com |
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