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   Technology StocksKMI- a fallen high dividend yielder - for how long?


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From: E_K_S3/27/2019 3:22:05 PM
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Kinder Morgan downgraded at Citigroup on valuation
Mar. 27, 2019 3:19 PM ET|About: Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI)|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

Kinder Morgan ( KMI -0.5%) is downgraded to Neutral from Buy with a $20 price target at Citigroup, which says the stock appears fairly valued after rallying 30% YTD and growth opportunities look balanced against downside risk over the near-term.

Citi analyst Mirek Zak praises KMI's "ability to contract not one but two Permian gas pipelines projects at attractive multiples, thanks to its existing intrastate network, but believe(s) it may be some time before other such organic opportunities of scale materialize."

Zak thinks KMI can deliver a sustainable dividend growth rate in the low-single digits after 2021 but says risks remain about existing assets, contract renegotiations, changes from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, tariffs and enhanced oil recovery production levels.

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To: E_K_S who wrote (61)3/27/2019 3:54:02 PM
From: robert b furman
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Hi E_K_S,

I have finally averaged down to be above my cost by less than a buck.

With both Chevron and EXXON doubling down on the Permian - this will become a solid DGI.

I didn't like the huge return of "non dividend distributions" this year, but that shall correct in time.

I do like the fact I can sell and be at long term capital gains if /when something better comes along.

Thanks for the post update!

Bob

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From: E_K_S8/1/2019 8:50:37 PM
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Kinder Morgan's Gulf LNG project wins U.S. approval for exports
Aug. 1, 2019 6:58 PM ET|About: Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI)|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

The U.S. Department of Energy has issued an order approving exports of liquefied natural gas from Kinder Morgan's (NYSE: KMI) Gulf LNG project in Mississippi.

The order gives Gulf LNG permission to export as much as 1.53B cf/day of liquefied natural gas from the Pascagoula, Miss., site.

The facility now has permission to export LNG to non-free trade agreement nations such as China, Japan, South Korea and France where commodity prices are higher than other markets.

If completed, Gulf LNG would become the second LNG export terminal developed by KMI, whose Elba Island facility in Georgia is largely complete but crews are still preparing the facility for production and tanker shipments.

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To: E_K_S who wrote (63)8/1/2019 9:03:14 PM
From: robert b furman
   of 159
 
Hi E_K_S,

Thanks for the great update.

As this keeps up, I'm going to have to change the Intro to this thread, as in no longer a fallen star.

<BIG SMILE>

Bob

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To: robert b furman who wrote (64)9/25/2019 10:57:14 AM
From: robert b furman
   of 159
 
One great big accomplishment - Let the free cash flow BEGIN !!

Kinder Morgan starts Gulf Coast Express gas pipeline ahead of schedule
Sep. 24, 2019 5:43 PM ET|About: Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI)|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI) says its 448-mile Gulf Coast Express Pipeline from the Permian Basin to the Texas Gulf Coast will be placed into service tomorrow, ahead of schedule.

KMI says the pipeline, which is fully booked under long-term contracts, will move 2B cf/day of natural gas from the Waha hub in west Texas to the Agua Dulce hub in south Texas, where it can either be exported on other pipelines to Mexico or liquefied natural gas export terminals along the Gulf Coast.

KMI is operator of the pipeline and owns a 34% interest; other equity holders include Altus Midstream (NASDAQ: ALTM), DCP Midstream (NYSE: DCP) and an affiliate of Targa Resources (NYSE: TRGP).

Bob

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From: E_K_S10/16/2019 8:40:43 AM
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Kinder Morgan Q3 2019 Earnings Preview
Oct. 15, 2019 5:35 PM ET|About: Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI)|By: Vandana Singh, SA News Editor

Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI) is scheduled to announce Q3 earnings results on Wednesday, October 16th, after market close.

The consensus EPS Estimate is $0.24 (+14.3% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $3.47B (-1.4% Y/Y).

Over the last 2 years, KMI has beaten EPS estimates 38% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 25% of the time.

Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 3 upward revisions and 3 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 1 upward revision and 8 downward.

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To: E_K_S who wrote (66)10/16/2019 11:40:30 AM
From: robert b furman
1 Recommendation   of 159
 
Hi E_K_S,

Kinder is now pumping LNG out of elba island and one of the Permian pipelines to Katy is now pumping.

Now they will high gross additional capacity for others to that pipeline - it will add to their gross for the next several years PLUS the coastal pipeline next year.

The cash flow should take a quantum jump next quarter.

In between we are getting substantial return of capital which reduces cost basis and bumps the dividend yield when it is wholly shared earnings - which I expect it will soon be.

Over the three years of depressed prices,I've added a lot via puts assigned to me.

Bob

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To: robert b furman who wrote (67)10/16/2019 11:52:50 AM
From: E_K_S
   of 159
 
KMI my No. 3 portfolio position. Was looking at selling 20% of my top 10 holdings to raise cash for a construction project planned for 2022. Project has an estimated cap rate of 8.5% so it is pretty compelling to raise my cash now rather than in 2 years.

Would park the money in a 5year short term treasury fund . . .

I may further qualify sales by future div growth and KMI share sales may get spared on the first cut.

Do you have 2-5 price expectations assuming rates stay in this low range?

EKS

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To: E_K_S who wrote (68)10/16/2019 12:25:13 PM
From: robert b furman
   of 159
 
HI E_K_S,

By the time they get both permian pipelines built (although they are shared ownerships) Plus elba export of LNG, revenue will be substantially improved. It appears the LNG export will grow to be huge globally as many projects have received FID's.

Many in the permian do not get the full price for their oil as they must use rail.

For KMI to include a connection to the most efficient method of transporting, a company needing cash flow will pay handsomely to get hooked in to the pipeline.

I do not expect a return to a $2.00 dividend, but I think Kinder has to shoot for that, to redeem himself in the eyes of many stockholders who hung with him. Not only to redeem himself,but he has been buying more stock himself.

I have a mixed feeling about return of capital. I'd like to see the dividend get covered before the dividend gets bumped beyond $1.25.

My average is $19.04 so at 6.6% - I'm a happy camper.

If they keep rising to the 2.00 divind of the past, I'm sitting on a 10% plus yield with a lowering cost basis.

KMI is going to be around for my life and growing without a doubt in my mind.

It's a buy and hold in my retirement plan.

I park it next to my T and XOM and sleep well at night.

I too have a construction project coming.

If I do not have the cash flow from dividends to cover the building , I'll get a construction loan.

Rates are too low for me to sell a portfolio of dividend aristocrats that I have worked hard to get at right prices by selling long term puts and having them get assigned to me.

There are plenty of bankers out there looking to make cheap loans when they know they will get paid back. <smile>

Bob

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To: robert b furman who wrote (69)10/16/2019 1:50:58 PM
From: E_K_S
   of 159
 
Ok good to know. Plan to pay cash for the project estimate it to run $300K-$350K. Have budgeted a NG Fuel Cell 25KW at $800/KW instead of solar panels and Powerwall batteries. I can sell extra electricity back to the utility (even at peak price during the day) but still running the numbers to see the total payback.

The project build is what is called an ADU ( Auxuallery Dwelling Unit) but will build ontop of garage and over kitchen for a total of 650 sqft. Will have to rebuild garage to meet current earthquake code so 2nd story addition meets permits. Project will come in at $300/sqft but still early so total costs could be higher.

Rents for ADU unit (includes electricity, water & Internet) $2,500-$3,000 per month. Other unit (main home-after remodel of $75K) $3,000-$3,500 per month.

The NG Fuel Cell is another revenue stream to the project and all works because of cheap NG delivered to the property.

I now learn that no new construction in San Jose, CA (like Berekley) will not allow NG pipes to the new construction (inludes ADU's). I should be able to install the NG Fuel Cell to the existing structure and then feed the 2nd electric panel to the ADU unit. It makes so much more sense than the Solar Panels (much smaller foor print 6'x6'x6') and you still get all those energy credits (almost $5K). The NG Fuel Cell investment maybe $20K-$25K and can be depreciated 10 years.

The Redox Cube

This may/could add 7% to the project cost but I think total return w/ credits will increase my project cap rate.

I have an investment in the IPO BE and this unit is 10x more efficient. Eventually will let my BE shares go and maybe I can use those proceeds to pay for this unit (have 2 years to decide).

I believe in the distributed power solution but Solar is not always the best answer IMO.

KMI delivers the NG to my utility so in many ways if I go ahead w/ the NG fuel cell, I own many of the component pieces in generating my electricity for my two unit build in Silicon Valley.

EKS

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