| To: robert b furman who wrote (40) | 4/19/2018 1:01:54 PM | | From: Jerome | | | | Hi Bob, I opened a position on KMI this morning. I have read about the future increased demand for NG, from Japan, China and India.
I also held on to my CHK stock for the same reason. I keep looking for NG to break out (for the past two years).
Those export terminals....how far are they from completion?
Are there some new ships being built to transport LNG?
Because the rest of my portfolio is having a great year I can sit on my KMI shares until NG beaks out.
Jerome. |
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| To: Jerome who wrote (41) | 4/19/2018 3:18:16 PM | | From: robert b furman | | | | Hi Jerome,
The biggest LNG ships are so efficient they will make the smaller ships obsolete.
en.wikipedia.org
One or two caveats to that.
1) the big ships require a deeper harbor in which to load and unload.
2) don't think they can fit in Panama Canal
So far there are two LNG export ports actually in operation :
Chenierre in La.
Dominion in East Coast located on the Hudson River.
Several others in building stage on East Coast (From Marcelles shale) and Houston ship Channel from Permian and Eagle Ford shale deposits in TX.
Quite a large export business from Texas to Mexico as well.
Good business with long term run just beginning.
bbc.com (australia bound)
Bob |
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| From: E_K_S | 5/29/2018 9:22:45 AM | | | | | | Canadian government to buy Trans Mountain Pipeline for C$4.5B
Kinder Morgan ( KMI, OTCPK:KMLGF) confirms the Canadian government has agreed to purchase the Trans Mountain Pipeline system and expansion project for C$4.5B.
KMI says the federal government will to fund the resumption of expansion project planning and construction work by guaranteeing advances under a separate recourse credit facility until the transaction closes, which the parties expect in late Q3 or early Q4.
"Despite losing the EBITDA associated with the Trans Mountain system, we still expect to meet or exceed our 2018 distributable cash flow per share target," KMI says. "We continue to expect a 2018 annualized dividend of $0.80/share, followed by $1.00/share in 2019 and $1.25/share in 2020, a growth rate of 25% annually.
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Not sure this was expected.
EKS |
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| To: E_K_S who wrote (43) | 5/29/2018 9:33:59 AM | | From: robert b furman | | | | Hi E_K_S,
I view that as a relief.
I've read some articles that state the new big huge tankers will make Canada's energy attempts non competitive - so it looks like a perfect government bail out as KMI gets a big blast of cash to reapply elsewhere.
Love that stated dividend growth.
If it comes to fruition this dividend cut will end up being an excellent long term buy the dip - on a stock with a great long term future.
Sounds like a retirement plan to me. LOL
Bob |
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| To: robert b furman who wrote (45) | 6/11/2018 6:40:47 PM | | From: Jerome | | | | Hi Bob,......two dates that are important for KMI are June 22, which is the next OPEC meeting. There is already resentment toward Trump for trying to push OPEC to higher production.
Over half of the Opec countries are capacity strained....in that they are facing anticipated production declines.
Natural gas utilization by the five biggest consumers (Importers) is increasing. Japan, China, S. Korea, Pakistan and India are upping imports to combat air pollution
KMI and Cheniere Energy.( LNG) will be two of the biggest Us beneficiaries of the increased international demand. This not years off into the future....its this year.
The second important date is about Aug 2, when CHK reports earnings and gas volumes shipped.
For the speculative investor there is very little time premium attached to CHK or KMI.....I would look for slightly in the money options dated about July 20. The CHK 4's at $1.00 and the KMI 16's. at $1.30 ...This one of the few times options could be better than the stock.
Mathematicians have proved that the most profitable options are those that are slightly in the money. If the stock stays flat you get most of your money back, and if it goes up even slightly you have a winning trade.
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| To: robert b furman who wrote (45) | 6/17/2018 6:26:35 PM | | From: Jerome | | | | Hey Bob, I have read in the last few days that oil and gas pipelines are maxed out in capacity.
The discount on crude being transported by rail or truck is at $10.00 a barrel.
Is this bullish or bearish for pipeline companies?
Its bullish because the companies are generating maximum, revenue possible from existing pipelines.
Its bearish because revenue is capped at current levels.
This will change as new pipelines are built. but it puts a shadow on this sector for now.
What is your take on this outlook?
Are you considering buying some refinery stock?... Because refiners are running at almost full capacity. MRO comes to mind as a refiner to consider. |
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| To: Jerome who wrote (47) | 6/17/2018 10:21:25 PM | | From: robert b furman | | | | Its Bullish.
Pipeline companies are adding lubricity to the oil so it flows through the pipes faster. The additive is not expensive and it boosts flow up to 50% more.
rbnenergy.com
As new pipelines are built (requiring greater demand to justify the Capex) , existing pipelines that have easements in place and have an economic advantage to create greater pipeline capacity vs those who want to build greenfield pipelines.
Ya think they're making money? Count on it!!
Bob |
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| To: robert b furman who wrote (48) | 6/18/2018 8:53:57 AM | | From: E_K_S | | | | Are most of their pipelines contracted for 'fixed fee" now or can they increase prices typically pegged to the price of oil? I like fixed fee contracts now as many go hammered when oil prices were at multi year lows and revenues were pegged to the price of oil.
Nice to know about the additives to increase operating capacity.
I was reviewing other pipeline/transport companies I own over last 5 year division revenues and all categories are higher but net income less due to Capx investment/improvements. The trend is positive now so cost controls very important.
EKS |
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| To: E_K_S who wrote (49) | 6/18/2018 9:02:09 AM | | From: robert b furman | | | | Not totally sure of how a fixed fee is defined. I'm guessing that a minimum quantity is specified and that fixes the fee over a defined period of time.
I'm also guessing that if more oil or nat gas was transported the revenue would increase.
Good question! If the additive had a cost (and it does) I doubt they would do it without there being an associated revenue boost.
Energy business is embracing technology quite a lot of late - I like the sector.
Bob |
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