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   Technology StocksKMI- a fallen high dividend yielder - for how long?

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From: miraje2/20/2018 1:01:44 PM
   of 156
Is anyone still holding this thing? I've ridden it down since the divi slash and wonder if it will ever find a bottom. Motley Fool keeps touting it as it keeps dropping. Guess investors no longer trust KMI management.

I do know that if I get fed up and dump it, which I'm about ready to do, that will definitely mark the bottom and it will finally start to climb back.. :-(

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To: miraje who wrote (32)2/20/2018 1:38:14 PM
From: robert b furman
   of 156
Hi Miraje,

I'm still holding the bag on this one.

I am in anticipation of them announcing the new 80 cent annual dividend for the next 4 quarters after this last 12.5 cent dividend.

I have also sold some 18.00 puts far out into January 2019.

If assigned to me they will be very nice dividend growth stocks - if their projected dividends are actually paid out in 2019 and 2020.

One thing for sure the pipelines are becoming fuller as:

Gas continues to displace coal in electrical generation - especially in Houston

Exports to Mexico grow.

Exports of LNG from Chenierre are now being made

A huge build out of plastics plants continue to be built in Houston.

The Permian and Eagle Ford fields continue to be restricted to drilling activity until flaring is minimized 9 In KMI's back yard.

This is the largest network in the US that took on too much debt when it left its MLP statusand at the same time a downturn of generational pain all accross the energy sector took place.

Although I was put some 22.50 and 25.00 stocks when the dividend slah took place - I'm currently of the mindset this is a buy and hold, that with time, will more than reward my patience.

If you sold 18.00 puts and got 2.35 for them the net purchase price would be $15.65.

Next years dividend (if done as stated) will yield 5.11 %

I like it from a long term buy and hold basis.

Average down and watch it pay like a slot machine - I hope!



The claimed dividend for 2019 will be 1.00 and that will yield 6.39.

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To: robert b furman who wrote (33)2/20/2018 3:06:24 PM
From: miraje
   of 156
Hi Bob,

Next years dividend (if done as stated) will yield 5.11 %

Couple of clichés come to mind..

Fool me once, shame on you.
Fool me twice, shame on me.


Once bitten, twice shy..

Think I'll hold on to my shares, for now, and take a wait and see attitude on the divi increase. If they do come though as promised, that will kick start the share price upwards for sure. Really don't think it will go much lower from here..

Regards, JB

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To: miraje who wrote (34)2/20/2018 3:19:30 PM
From: robert b furman
   of 156
Hi JB,

Believe me - I've thought of that before I typed what my bet is.

We'll know in less than 90 days.

I took my position after RSI dipped below 30 for a day and has gone sides since and some farther back.Usually do it in 3;s - last 3 ready to go but has to be a new low - final shakeout.

I hope it happens either way..

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To: robert b furman who wrote (35)2/21/2018 6:45:52 AM
From: robert b furman
   of 156
A good write up of what KMI is in the middle of :

US Ethane Consumption Expected to Boom
Feb. 20--The U.S. Department of Energy projects that during the next two years, domestic growth in ethane consumption in the burgeoning petrochemicals industry will surpass that of all other petroleum and liquid products combined as ethylene crackers and plastics plants expand along the Gulf Coast.Ethane is a natural gas liquid used as a feedstock for ethylene, which is the building block for most plastics. Last year, three new Gulf Coast ethylene crackers boosted domestic ethane consumption to 1.2 billion barrels a day(do they even bother to proof read?), the agency reported.

The ethylene surge comes amid a Gulf Coast petrochemicals boom driven by an abundance of cheap natural gas flowing from West Texas shale fields such as the prolific Permian basin. By 2019, the agency expects ethylene crackers now under construction to boost ethane consumption to 1.6 million barrels a day.

Other major projects are underway. French oil major Total SA, for example, affirmed this week plans to build a $1.7 billion ethane steam cracker alongside its Port Arthur refinery as part of a joint venture with Austrian and Canadian companies Borealis AG and NOVA Chemicals Corp.

The Energy Department also anticipates ethane exports to increase to 310,000 barrels a day in 2019, up from from 180,000 barrels a day last year. Kinder Morgan's Utopia pipeline, which last month began transporting ethane products to Canada from Ohio's Utica shale play, is expected to drive part of that growth."

Thanks to Ditchdigger for the link.


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From: Alejandroo Green2/26/2018 9:09:33 AM
1 Recommendation   of 156
bullish crossover in MACD and Stochastic oscillator. Technically, a potential good entry point here.

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To: Alejandroo Green who wrote (37)2/26/2018 9:32:15 AM
From: robert b furman
   of 156
Hi alejandro,

Thanks for the great chart and post!!!


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To: robert b furman who wrote (38)4/19/2018 11:31:06 AM
From: robert b furman
1 Recommendation   of 156
Earnings out this morning and stockholders geta 60 % bump in next years dividend (50 cents to 80 cents) :

Very solid report.

Looks like the turn is in with pipelines full and making more money that expected (100 million more aimed at new Capex (high margin) projects.


The turn is done!!

This should put us in the 20's.

If this future commitment of dividend increases is maintained through 2020 any stock bought today will be yielding 7.47 %

Does anyone think that natural gas will be used less in the future? NOT ME !!!


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To: robert b furman who wrote (39)4/19/2018 11:43:31 AM
From: E_K_S
1 Recommendation   of 156
Any chance we see the previous high of $40/share buy 2020?

Seems like the table is set.

Good investing


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To: E_K_S who wrote (40)4/19/2018 12:36:39 PM
From: robert b furman
1 Recommendation   of 156
I think so.

Daily chart :

Weekly :

Kinder was very proud of his shareholder friendly dividend - he is the largest shareholder and pays himself $1.00 a year for being CEO - I like that.

The largest natural gas pipeline in the country and they have reduced debt and only take on high margin Capex.

They were one of the few and first that converted from an MLP to a Corporation. That required huge debt to be embraced. So much so that their credit ranking became threatened.

They sold off some big pipeline interests (but still run them) and have reduced debt.

Their cash flow is monstrous!

I think what gets very little coverage is their "Tall Grass" experimental field, where they inject never drilled shale formations with CO2 and then frac it. It has a great supplemental value to fracing epecially where they are strongest (Permian and Eagle Ford).

For me this was a long term buy and hold as they shore up their balance sheet.

I have no doubt that natural gas is a long term megatrend.

This decline in KMI's stock price was a great gift that the energy crisis ( manufactured by the Saudi's which is a false market event) gave us.

Like semiconductors represent a long term growth prospect - so does natural gas and the future greater use and export of it - all of which must utilize pipelines.

KMI is the biggest but caught with too much debt.

They have the conversion from a MLP behind them and can now resume their growth.

Just in time for the corporate tax rate reductions - perfect!!

I've been adding KMI to an already large position by selling puts 16's and 18's.

I was actually surprised how cheap KMI got this year. What I had not researched properly was the promised dividend bump was labeled a 2018 increase, but the first dividend of calendar year 2018 was still at the 50 cent rate - I think this created an unusual level of doubt.

At any rate - Ive been sitting on some puts that were slightly underwater (the 16's (june) - which are now out of the money and hopefully they will expire to 00.00 which will help me buy the 18's (januarys) - assuming I get them put to me.

If not I'll have to get along with my current position and some more darn money.<smile>

$40.00 would be a double and a 7% plus yield dividend on cost - I can sleep very well with that kind of an investment. LOL

Good to see you here posting , this place has been a sleepy spot to post.


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