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   Technology StocksKMI- a fallen high dividend yielder - for how long?


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From: Sr K3/6/2016 1:16:48 AM
   of 160
 
Yahoo (12/31/2015 data):

Total Cash (mrq): 341.00M
Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 0.15

Total Debt (mrq): 43.30B

Total Debt/Equity (mrq): 122.32

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To: robert b furman who wrote (1)3/7/2016 12:48:35 PM
From: Zilyunz
   of 160
 
Nice board here, thanks for doing it.

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From: E_K_S3/7/2016 1:43:45 PM
   of 160
 
Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB) is another play in the same sector. WMB has more debt and has not cut their dividend like KMI. WMB has plans to develop an LNG export terminal w/ partners in the North West (either in Portland area and/or Cove Bay w/ Veresen as their JV partner). WMB current pays a dividend that yields 13% vs KMI which yields 3%.

I own a basket of these pipeline companies; WMB, KMI, SE, FCGYF (Veresen) and Inter Pipeline Ltd. (IPPLF). I also own several of the Midstream MLPs but prefer the General Partners (listed above) as they are selling at/near bargain prices.

All of the companies listed pay dividends and each has exposure to the natural gas build out and/or export LNG terminals.

Sempra Energy (SRE) is fairly valued at current prices and they have exposure to tow LNG export terminals; one in Mexico off Baja Coast and one at the Gulf of Mexico in Texas.

I own a few shares of SRE from a very long term hold in San Diego Gas & Electric that spun shares of SRE in 1998.

EKS

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To: robert b furman who wrote (1)3/9/2016 7:51:02 AM
From: Bridge Player
   of 160
 
Never hurts to have Buffett on your side, Bob.

bloomberg.com

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To: Bridge Player who wrote (11)3/9/2016 9:09:59 AM
From: robert b furman
   of 160
 
Yup,

That guy has been stalking my moves for over a year now.LOL

Its good to get lucky every now and then.

Bob

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To: robert b furman who wrote (12)3/9/2016 10:31:41 AM
From: robert b furman
   of 160
 
Thanks to John P for offering up this performance chart :

stockcharts.com

stockcharts.com

This chart is not copying (my ignorance limits me always - sorry) it shows coal really down and pipelines almost as bad.

Note that the pipeline ETF has fallen horribly - almost as much as coal has !!

Now I get the story on coal - but surely natural gas use is gaining at the expense of coal - in at least the category of electrical generation.

Then add to that exports :

To mexico
LNG exports many markets
Industrial uses of natural gas

All of which reinforces the idea that pipelines have growth well written into their future revenue increases.

Coal has been clobbered and pipelines almost as badly.

There is a real market inefficiency at work here.

I understand that some pipeline contracts may have to be rewritten with some gas E&P companies - that will slow the growth increase - certainly NOT a decline situation.

This just makes me want to learn more about other pipelines while keeping KMI as a core holding that will bloom in the fullness in time.

Bob

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To: robert b furman who wrote (13)3/21/2016 9:47:54 PM
From: robert b furman
2 Recommendations   of 160
 
Proof that KMI's vision of a robust future with nat gas for electrical generation is alive and well:

Natural gas expected to surpass coal in mix of fuel used for U.S. power generation in 2016

U.S. Energy Information Administration
March 16, 2016



Source:
U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review, and Short-Term Energy Outlook (March 2016)

For decades, coal has been the dominant energy source for generating electricity in the United States. EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) is now forecasting that 2016 will be the first year that natural gas-fired generation exceeds coal generation in the United States on an annual basis. Natural gas generation first surpassed coal generation on a monthly basis in April 2015, and the generation shares for coal and natural gas were nearly identical in 2015, each providing about one-third of all electricity generation.

The mix of fuels used for electricity generation has evolved over time. The recent decline in the generation share of coal, and the concurrent rise in the share of natural gas, was mainly a market-driven response to lower natural gas prices that have made natural gas generation more economically attractive. Between 2000 and 2008, coal was significantly less expensive than natural gas, and coal supplied about 50% of total U.S. generation. However, beginning in 2009, the gap between coal and natural gas prices narrowed, as large amounts of natural gas produced from shale formations changed the balance between supply and demand in U.S. natural gas markets.



Source:
U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, and Short-Term Energy Outlook (March 2016)

Coal and natural gas generation shares over the past decade have been responsive to changes in relative fuel prices. For example, particularly low natural gas prices throughout much of 2012 following an extremely mild 2011–12 winter led to a significant rise in the natural gas generation share between 2011 and 2012, often displacing coal-fired generation. With higher natural gas prices in 2013 and 2014, coal regained some of its generation share. However, with a return to lower natural gas prices in 2015 favoring increased natural gas-fired generation, coal's generation share dropped again.

Environmental regulations affecting power plants have played a secondary role in driving coal's declining generation share over the past decade, although plant owners in some states have made investments to shift generation toward natural gas at least partly for environmental reasons. Looking forward, environmental regulations may play a larger role in conjunction with market forces. Owners of some coal plants will face decisions to either retire units or reduce their utilization rate to comply with requirements to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from existing fossil fuel-fired power plants under the Clean Power Plan, which is scheduled to take effect in 2022 but has recently been stayed by the Supreme Court pending the outcome of ongoing litigation.

Beyond the growing market share for natural gas-fired generation over the past decade, coal's generation share has also been reduced by the growing market share of renewables other than hydroelectric power, especially wind and solar. Unlike the growth of natural gas-fired generation, which has largely been market-driven, increased use of nonhydro renewables has largely been driven by a combination of state and federal policies. The use of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar has also grown rapidly in recent years so that generation from these types of renewables is now surpassing generation from hydropower.

The March 2016 STEO expects that the combination of market forces and government policies will continue to stimulate the use of natural gas and nonhydro renewables for power generation. In EIA's forecast, natural gas provides 33% of generation in 2016 while coal's share falls to 32%. The expected share of nonhydro renewables increases to 8% in 2016, with hydropower's share at 6%.

Principal contributor: Tyler Hodge

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To: robert b furman who wrote (14)3/25/2016 10:01:50 AM
From: robert b furman
   of 160
 
Chart update : 15 minute with trend line off of bottom and fib retrace:

screencast.com

Bob

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From: DividendPlanet3/27/2016 11:10:58 AM
4 Recommendations   of 160
 
This is the problem with investing in dividend stocks with a short dividend increase history. Kinder Morgan only raised their dividend for 5 years. I prefer investing in companies that have raised their dividends for decades. These companies have a much smaller risk of cutting the dividend since there would be a very shareholder friendly corporate culture that would put pressure on the management to keep the dividend no matter what.

For instance, the record holder in this regard i American States Water, that has raised their dividends for an astounding 61 years in a row. Now thats what I call consistency.

The best dividend growers in the world

In Canada the record goes to Canadian Utilities with a streak of 43 years and in the United Kingdom its Cobham with 43 years as well.

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To: DividendPlanet who wrote (16)3/28/2016 5:08:58 AM
From: robert b furman
   of 160
 
Great link,

I've put it on my fav list - Thank You

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