| To: orkrious who wrote (60923) | 2/24/2002 12:37:45 PM | | From: Cary Salsberg | | | | RE: "We aren't in a bull market anymore."
Are we in Kansas?
I agree, we have been in a bear market. This is not the worst since 1920-1930s. The Dow has not fallen the way it did in 1973.
We are dealing with the aftermath of a huge technology bubble. There is some horrendous fallout and almost no technology company is immune to the problem.
In case you haven't noticed, the society at large is experiencing nothing like the Great Depression. Most have been insulated from technology's woes and are happily enjoying technology's bounties, wireless phones, DVDs, digital cameras and video, email, instant messaging, music and video file swapping, etc. The Feds monetary policy has been very effective so far for the general economy and signs of positive GDP growth are on the horizon.
We are in a very interesting time for technology investors. The economic recovery is at hand, but technology will be slow to benefit from it. This is not the time to make bold predictions either bullish or bearish. It is not time to "fly without a net" or hide one's head in the sand.
These are times to question what you know about a company's products and competitive positions and make sure faith is almost completely absent from investment decisions.
These are times to manage money carefully and follow the lead of posters like Jacob Snyder, with more moderation, who add to and subtract from positions as prices complete up and down moves.
These are the times to realize Moore's law is alive and well, that well managed quality companies are continuing R & D investing, and that the objective is to build a long term position in quality at reasonable prices. |
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| To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (60924) | 2/24/2002 12:49:03 PM | | From: orkrious | | | | The Dow has not fallen the way it did in 1973.
Not yet. It will. Regardless, the Dow is a index made up of just 30 companies where the weak are replaced by the strong. It's meaningless. It's also grossly overvalued now.
In case you haven't noticed, the society at large is experiencing nothing like the Great Depression.
And it likely won't. But it's going to get much worse than it is. Wait until the overleveraged consumers begin to cut back.
The economic recovery is at hand
No it's not. Things haven't begun to get bad.
These are times to manage money carefully
On that we are in complete agreement.
These are the times to realize Moore's law is alive and well
No question. However, that doesn't mean there are good investments in technology at these valuations.
ork |
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| To: orkrious who wrote (60925) | 2/24/2002 1:25:36 PM | | From: Cary Salsberg | | | | | I have a personal bright side to your scenario. My wife wants a "beach house" in Rio Del Mar, a community a few minutes south of Santa Cruz. If my scenario unfolds, I will need to do well enough in the market to pay $500-750K, while if you are correct, I will be able to get the same house for $150-200K. |
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| To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (60926) | 2/24/2002 1:39:51 PM | | From: orkrious | | | | I have a personal bright side to your scenario.
I actually have the same scenario. I got married last August. When we got engaged 13 months ago, we put my wife's house on the market (Detroit suburbs) for $420,000. We just gave up and dumped it for $353,000.
She wants a $800,000-$1.0 mil house in Birmingham. She doesn't believe me when I tell her within 12-18 months we'll get it for $500k-$750k. I know I'll be right. |
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| To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (60683) | 2/24/2002 6:10:50 PM | | From: Hawkmoon | | | | Almost by definition, the bottom in asset prices can't happen while any significant fraction of investors have any hope. Assets are ignored rather than hated, by investors.
Hmmm... I always figured that "bottoms" come when mass panic selling amongst speculators causes asset prices to be discounted to the point where value minded investors step in and purchase the assets.
When the speculators get shaken out, the REALLY smart money looks for value at prices that almost guarantee them a nifty return when the fear subsides.
After all, someone has to own the stock, right?
Hawk |
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| To: StanX Long who wrote (60822) | 2/25/2002 1:51:45 AM | | From: StanX Long | | | | Asian Stocks: Japan's Fanuc, Exporters Fall; Hong Kong Declines
By Tomoko Yamazaki
02/25 01:04
quote.bloomberg.com
Tokyo, Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average fell for the first day in three, led by exporters such as Fanuc Ltd. after the yen had its biggest gain in more than a week, reducing the value of their overseas sales.
``The yen's sudden gain triggered selling among exporters,'' Makoto Suzuki, who helps manage $1.1 billion in Japanese equities at Chuo Mitsui Asset Management Co. ``The yen may strengthen further before the fiscal year-end.''
The Nikkei 225 stock average shed 0.6 percent to 10,296.47, while the Topix fell 0.2 percent to 987.12. Banks were the Topix index's biggest gainers as a group on hopes they will speed up their bad loan write-offs after the government announces measures to support the market on Wednesday.
In other markets, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 1.6 percent, after Global Crossing Ltd. shareholders opposed Hutchison Whampoa Ltd.'s plan to buy a stake in the fiber-optic network operator. Korea's Kospi index dropped 0.1 percent, led by Pohang Iron & Steel Co. and other steelmakers, on concern the 26 percent gain as a group in the past two weeks already reflects increasing prices of the metal. |
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| To: StanX Long who wrote (60929) | 2/25/2002 1:52:42 AM | | From: StanX Long | | | | Yen Has Biggest Gain in Seven Days as Japan Trade Surplus Rises
By Mari Murayama and Kanako Chiba
02/25 00:23
quote.bloomberg.com
Tokyo, Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The yen had its biggest gain in more than a week after a report showed Japan's exports rose in January at the fastest pace in two years, leaving the companies with more money to convert into their home currency.
The yen was also helped as Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda said the government would provide public funds to banks should ongoing Financial Services Agency inspections of lenders find it necessary.
Japan's currency strengthened to 133.86 a dollar from 134.15 in New York late trading Friday, its biggest gain since Feb. 14. It fell 1.2 percent last week. Against the euro, it climbed to 117.10 from 117.37, snapping a two-day loss.
``The trade surplus should support the yen,'' said Marshall Gittler, head of Asian currency strategy at Bank of America Corp. in Tokyo. |
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| To: StanX Long who wrote (60930) | 2/25/2002 1:55:48 AM | | From: StanX Long | | | | NEC May Post Losses at Telecom-Gear Unit Until Sept. (Update1)
By Minoru Matsutani and Yoshifumi Takemoto
02/24 22:21
quote.bloomberg.com
Tokyo, Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- NEC Corp., whose shares are the second-worst performing on the Nikkei 225 stock average this year, said its communications equipment unit may post losses until the end of September as telephone network operators curtail spending.
``It will be difficult to post a profit in the January to March period,'' Mineo Sugiyama, a senior executive vice president at NEC, Japan's largest telecommunications-equipment maker, said in an interview. ``The bottom will be in the second half (the six months ending March 2003).''
NEC counts among its customers companies such as Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp., NTT DoCoMo Inc. and AT&T Corp., all of which have a glut of equipment, Sugiyama said. Investors are concerned NEC, whose semiconductor business is already recording losses, will have difficulty returning to profit after projecting a record $2.25 billion loss this fiscal year.
The declining fortunes of the unit means that ``basically, NEC has no core businesses,'' said Hideki Kamiya, who manages 10 billion yen ($75 million) at Asahi Tokyo Investment Trust Management Co., which holds NEC shares. ``Carriers don't have money. I'm not sure whether the telecom-equipment business can be a core business for NEC.''
NEC will have difficulty generating profit in a market where the biggest player, Nortel Networks Corp., has posted losses for eight straight quarters, Kamiya said. |
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| To: StanX Long who wrote (60931) | 2/25/2002 1:57:37 AM | | From: StanX Long | | | | Hynix Creditors Are Preparing Counterproposal to Bid By Micron Technology
bloomberg.com
The creditors of Hynix Semiconductor Inc., the ailing No. 3 computer-memory-chip maker, said they are preparing a counterproposal to a purchase offer from rival Micron Technology Inc., as the two companies try to complete an agreement by the end of this month. |
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