| To: Paul V. who wrote (60906) | 2/22/2002 4:41:50 PM | | From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. | | | | Paul V,
AMAT usually hurdles a major Bar of resistance like 50 on its 4th try (the 3rd and 4th usually just days apart). We have gone as high as 48 twice already. The Nasdaq needs to come back from its current slump though, in order for AMAT to trade above 50.
If it's not time yet to enter a higher YoYo range, at least by buying some now near the Drop and selling later above 46 near the Catch is profitable. |
| | Formerly About Applied Materials | Political Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read |
|
| To: Paul V. who wrote (60903) | 2/22/2002 5:47:34 PM | | From: Sam Citron | | | | OT What Gilder said:
Missed the first 10 minutes of the 1 hour Brian Lamb-hosted call-in show (people's interview) thanks to buggy PVR 501 Linux software from Echostar (wish they had just licensed Tivo's software). This was C-Span Washington Journal so a good portion of it was Gilder's political views. How socialism thrives on envy. How Guiliani cleaned up Central Park. How Enron bankruptcy was a victory for capitalism. How Massachusetts is damaged by excessive taxes in spite of well endowed tech base. How Michael Kelley's Atlantic Monthly article about the death of the American Spectator Magazine got it wrong. How he lost $300K on Global Crossing, one of the "great companies of the era" which lost big due to the debt crunch. How David Gerlertner is a genius. gilder.com
How "last mile" deregulation would cause an efflorescence of creativity. How the advertising model is broken. How bandwidth is lying fallow due to lack of last mile connectivity to the home. How one half million people are exploiting the pain and illness of a few thousand asbestos victims. How fiberoptics has not lost its promise in spite of the telecom bankruptcies caused by the insidious effects of deflation on debtors. How our tax code needs drastic reform and simplification.
If we both had ReplayTV 4000s I could just zap you the Gilder interview over the net. sonicblue.com
Wouldn't that be fun? [disclosure: no position in SBLU]
Edit: Watch it for yourself: c-span.org |
| | Formerly About Applied Materials | Political Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read |
|
| To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (60902) | 2/23/2002 2:30:55 AM | | From: Cary Salsberg | | | | I believe the "telecom/internet sector, including their equip suppliers" are the key drivers for most of the semi and therefore semi-equip companies. I agree it is not a "market call", but it sounds like a technology call.
I tend to disagree with your opinions. The current market dip has been driven by telecom disappointment and belief that the time frame for both inventory correction and the beginning of secular growth is being pushed out. The sector is pretty close to 2001 lows and some of the comm IC semis have retraced most of the gain since the lows. I have already seen semi improvements attributed to inventory "snapback" and concern voiced that they may not be sustainable. I realize that technically the stocks should move up, but I have not seen strong sentiment that we are retreating from a bear market rally. I think the real danger to prices is in the next 6 months to a year when the recovery will look very uncertain and visibility will dim. A few years out, technological innovation will overcome financial problems and these stock will make significant moves higher. Inventory problems will be a thing of the past and a new secular upturn driven by new technology parameters will have begun.
I am beginning to be afraid that this down move will not end until the quality, dare I say it, AMAT, ASML, KLAC, NVLS, ALTR, XLNX, LLTC, MXIM, joins the crowd and starts looking scary to the downside. If that happens, I will try to get fully invested for the long term. |
| | Formerly About Applied Materials | Political Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (2) |
|
| To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (60898) | 2/23/2002 9:54:16 AM | | From: orkrious | | | | IMO, the Fed has done little to decrease the excesses of the Bubble. By contrast, they have aggressively lowered rates and increased liquidity, to avoid a (worse) downturn.
Fleck certainly agrees with you. Read the latest Rap.
grantsinvestor.com |
| | Formerly About Applied Materials | Political Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read |
|
| To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (60913) | 2/23/2002 9:58:06 AM | | From: orkrious | | | | am beginning to be afraid that this down move will not end until the quality, dare I say it, AMAT, ASML, KLAC, NVLS, ALTR, XLNX, LLTC, MXIM, joins the crowd and starts looking scary to the downside
Cary, you are absolutely right. In fact, instead of being "richly" valued, these stocks will become richly undervalued, considerably below their Sept lows. Then it will be time to back up the truck for another rally.
ork |
| | Formerly About Applied Materials | Political Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (2) |
|
| To: orkrious who wrote (60915) | 2/23/2002 11:32:53 AM | | From: Lone Star | | | | | Yes, but will that happen? As someone who likes to buy the amat's of the world at a good value, then hold for 5+ years I have waited patiently for this sector to wind down, but so far... |
| | Formerly About Applied Materials | Political Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1) |
|
| To: Lone Star who wrote (60916) | 2/23/2002 11:45:53 AM | | From: orkrious | | | | Yes, but will that happen?
Bear markets take every stock down, it just takes longer for some than others. The semi equips are some of the last still standing. My guess is their decent will be rapid. |
| | Formerly About Applied Materials | Political Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read |
|
| To: orkrious who wrote (60915) | 2/23/2002 12:37:45 PM | | From: Cary Salsberg | | | | I stongly disagree that these will become "richly undervalued" or "below their Sept lows."
I think "scary" will still stop above Sept lows and that will not be even undervalued, certainly not "richly."
We have the proverbial greed/fear equation here. There are very few quality companies and these are the best. They are not immune to huge problems in the technology industry, but they will not suffer as much and will lead and prosper greatly from any recovery. I believe that the market has recognized their quality by their high valuations. Quality always breaks down last to levels above the "bargains" reached by most, leads the upturn, and outperforms most others over time.
If you didn't back up the truck at the bottom last Sept, you will get another chance at higher prices. ALTR and XLNX have been and are the most vulnerable because they are the most directly related to comm fortunes. |
| | Formerly About Applied Materials | Political Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (3) |
|
| |
