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   PoliticsFormerly About Applied Materials


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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (60900)2/22/2002 3:23:41 PM
From: Paul V.
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Cary, Jacob is being flexible, just like this market. :) At least he is not buying bonds, Bank, Precious metal, Riets, or savings in loans.<ggg>

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To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (60782)2/22/2002 3:24:41 PM
From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr.
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AMAT YoYo Demo --- For the YoYo Catch in March.

2/22/02 Bought AMAT 20 Calls Mar 42.50 @ 3.10/sh

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To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (60905)2/22/2002 3:51:02 PM
From: Paul V.
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Tito, With AMAT hitting $42 today it hit right on the DW bull support line, also a double bottom. It will be interesting to see if it breaks below it, Monday. How many more tries do you think it will take before it takes out the $48 triple top. After it breaks the $48 it appears the next resistance is at $50. This is where Jacob is planning to sell. Amat is forming a good Dw base. IMO, I see this puppy in a trading range until the SEMI bookings and possibly the next earnings report.

Paul

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To: StanX Long who wrote (60896)2/22/2002 4:07:39 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire
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>>Ask one of my many friend that was laid off and have yet to find a job, how soft this feels?<<

Exactly my point. I've got friends in that situation, too.

Still, as bad as it is, there's historical precedent for it to be a whole lot worse.

Katherine

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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (60898)2/22/2002 4:12:44 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire
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>>I suppose you could argue that we'll see the Bubble deflated in steps, like a balloon with a tiny intermittent pinhole in it. But there is no historical precedent for that. <<

I suspect that's exactly what Greenspan is trying to do. Perhaps he's betting that letting the bubble deflate slowly will give productivity gains and so forth time to bring intrinsic value up. Thus stabilizing valuations at some reasonable level.

It's too soon to say if he'll be able to pull it off.

Katherine

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To: willcousa who wrote (60854)2/22/2002 4:14:20 PM
From: mitch-c
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OT - wireless networking

That's kind of the pattern I envision for eventual (wireless) last-mile buildout. Right now, cell towers are expensive aggregators, and the cellphone "network" follows roughly the lines of mainframe/dumb terminal computing. The "dumb" peripherals ask the central node for a timeshare, but don't negotiate it among themselves.

When a "distributed processing" model hits, in which your home "base station" antenna helps not only you connect, but stands in as a (redundant) relay hop for your neighbors' antennas, then TCP/IP routing can work much the same as it does over wire - pick the most responsive path and use it.

- Mitch

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To: Paul V. who wrote (60906)2/22/2002 4:41:50 PM
From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr.
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Paul V,
AMAT usually hurdles a major Bar of resistance like 50 on its 4th try (the 3rd and 4th usually just days apart). We have gone as high as 48 twice already. The Nasdaq needs to come back from its current slump though, in order for AMAT to trade above 50.

If it's not time yet to enter a higher YoYo range, at least by buying some now near the Drop and selling later above 46 near the Catch is profitable.

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To: Paul V. who wrote (60903)2/22/2002 5:47:34 PM
From: Sam Citron
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OT What Gilder said:

Missed the first 10 minutes of the 1 hour Brian Lamb-hosted call-in show (people's interview) thanks to buggy PVR 501 Linux software from Echostar (wish they had just licensed Tivo's software). This was C-Span Washington Journal so a good portion of it was Gilder's political views. How socialism thrives on envy. How Guiliani cleaned up Central Park. How Enron bankruptcy was a victory for capitalism. How Massachusetts is damaged by excessive taxes in spite of well endowed tech base. How Michael Kelley's Atlantic Monthly article about the death of the American Spectator Magazine got it wrong. How he lost $300K on Global Crossing, one of the "great companies of the era" which lost big due to the debt crunch. How David Gerlertner is a genius. gilder.com
How "last mile" deregulation would cause an efflorescence of creativity. How the advertising model is broken. How bandwidth is lying fallow due to lack of last mile connectivity to the home. How one half million people are exploiting the pain and illness of a few thousand asbestos victims. How fiberoptics has not lost its promise in spite of the telecom bankruptcies caused by the insidious effects of deflation on debtors. How our tax code needs drastic reform and simplification.

If we both had ReplayTV 4000s I could just zap you the Gilder interview over the net. sonicblue.com
Wouldn't that be fun? [disclosure: no position in SBLU]

Edit: Watch it for yourself: c-span.org

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To: StanX Long who wrote (60896)2/23/2002 12:40:47 AM
From: StanX Long
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MaxPain just updated.

AMAT Mar'02 $47.50.

Stan

ez-pnf.com

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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (60902)2/23/2002 2:30:55 AM
From: Cary Salsberg
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I believe the "telecom/internet sector, including their equip suppliers" are the key drivers for most of the semi and therefore semi-equip companies. I agree it is not a "market call", but it sounds like a technology call.

I tend to disagree with your opinions. The current market dip has been driven by telecom disappointment and belief that the time frame for both inventory correction and the beginning of secular growth is being pushed out. The sector is pretty close to 2001 lows and some of the comm IC semis have retraced most of the gain since the lows. I have already seen semi improvements attributed to inventory "snapback" and concern voiced that they may not be sustainable. I realize that technically the stocks should move up, but I have not seen strong sentiment that we are retreating from a bear market rally. I think the real danger to prices is in the next 6 months to a year when the recovery will look very uncertain and visibility will dim. A few years out, technological innovation will overcome financial problems and these stock will make significant moves higher. Inventory problems will be a thing of the past and a new secular upturn driven by new technology parameters will have begun.

I am beginning to be afraid that this down move will not end until the quality, dare I say it, AMAT, ASML, KLAC, NVLS, ALTR, XLNX, LLTC, MXIM, joins the crowd and starts looking scary to the downside. If that happens, I will try to get fully invested for the long term.

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